回首2022，远眺下个周期的机会

资讯 2024-06-28 阅读:97 评论:0

2022 年即将过去，Mint Ventures 决定用回顾和展望告别这一年，为一年的 Web3 研究和学习工作画上句号，期待在新的一年继续见证 Web3 这个全新商业世界的成长，更迭、收获新的认知。Towards the...

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2022 年即将过去，Mint Ventures 决定用回顾和展望告别这一年，为一年的 Web3 研究和学习工作画上句号，期待在新的一年继续见证 Web3 这个全新商业世界的成长，更迭、收获新的认知。

Towards the end of the year in 2022, Mint Ventures decided to end the year with a review and a vision, drawing the end of the year's Web3 research and learning work, and looking forward to continuing to witness the growth, change and new insights of the new business world in the new year.

我们请机构内的研究员和投资经理们，就以下三个问题进行回答：

We invite researchers and investment managers within the institution to answer three questions:

过去的一年中，Web3 的哪些行业事件让你印象最深刻？
在未来的 1、2 年，或下一个牛市周期，你认为值得关注的趋势\投资机会是什么？
有其他想分享的所见所闻所想吗？

Mint Ventures 的 6 位研究员和投资经理，以及 2 位外部研究伙伴（菲菲和博博），都讲述了自己的看法与感受。

Six researchers and investment managers from Mint Ventures, as well as two external research partners (Fifi and Bobo), shared their views and feelings.

以下内容均保留了 Mint 各位原作者的核心观点，但受限于篇幅，部分做了删节。

The following elements retain the core views of the original authors, but are limited in length and partially deleted.

受限于每个人获取的信息、认知、立场，以下所有内容都是研究员和投资经理们在落笔当下时空的所想所感所悟，不可作为投资建议。

针对混币器 Tornado Cash（后简称 Tornado）的监管行动、大批量 DAO 组织的兴起与实践，以及 Luna 生态的崩溃，是 2022 年让我印象最深刻的三件事。

先来说针对 Tornado 的监管行动。

starts with the regulatory action against Tornado.

Tornado 是以太坊上最大的混币器，是众多黑客和其他有切断资金追踪需求的用户的常用工具。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室 ( 简称 OFAC) 在今年 8 月初将其列入制裁名单，禁止美国公民使用，Tornado 的开发者 Alexey Pertsev 也荷兰当局逮捕。很快，众多机构开始主动跟进 OFAC 的制裁行动。首先是第二大稳定币发行商 Circle 迅速冻结了 Tornado 协议内的 USDC，并对高关联地址内的 USDC 进行冻结。然后，Github 下线了 Tornado 的代码库。其他机构也开始对 Tornado 的有交互记录的地址进行封禁或列入黑名单，其中不乏去中心化项目，比如 Uniswap 屏蔽了 253 个与被盗资金或制裁有关的加密地址，借贷协议 Aave 前端屏蔽了众多与 Tornado 有过交互转账的地址。像 Infura 和 Alchemy 这样的第三方节点运营商，也停止支持 Tornado 的相关服务。

Tornado, the largest monetizer in the neighborhood, is a commonly used tool for many hackers and other users with the need to cut money trace. The US Treasury Foreign Assets Control Office (OFAC) was placed on a sanctions list early in August this year, prohibiting US citizens from using it, and Alexey Pertsev, the developer of Tornado, was arrested by Dutch authorities. Soon, many agencies began to follow the OFAC sanctions. First, the second largest stabilizer, Kircle, quickly blocked the USDC in the Tornado agreement, and blocked the USDC in the high-connected address. Then Github went down to the Tornado code bank. Other agencies began blocking or blacklisting the Tornado interactively recorded addresses, including centralized projects such as Uniswap, which blocked 253 encrypted addresses related to stolen funds or sanctions.

这是历史上第一次监管方对 DeFi 出手，在该事件之前尽管大家对此也有担忧，但是考虑到 DeFi 部署在以太坊上，继承了以太坊的安全性和去中心化，用户也都是匿名地址，对 DeFi 的制裁难度和成本远高于中心化机构和个人。但是 Tornado 事件却揭示了残酷的现实：尽管 DeFi 是基于代码信任和去中心化网络运行的，但是与它交互的个人和其他机构依旧受到传统法律和信用体系的严格制约，监管对 DeFi 的打击能力远比想象中的要强得多。

For the first time in history, DeFi was targeted by regulators, and even before the incident, despite concerns about it, given that DeFi was deployed in Etheria, inherited its security and decentralisation, and its users were anonymous addresses, and that the sanctions against DeFi were much more difficult and costly than centralized institutions and individuals. But the Tornado incident revealed the harsh reality that, while DeFi operated on the basis of code trust and decentralized networks, individuals and other institutions that interacted with it were still severely constrained by traditional legal and credit systems, and that the regulatory response to DeFi was far more powerful than expected.

Tornado 监管事件最大的价值在于让整个加密社区重新开始自我审视，包括：

The greatest value of the Tornado regulatory event is to get the entire encryption community back to self-censorship, including:

商业模式的安全性：大量采用中心化机构发行的资产安全吗？MakerDAO 的联合创始人 Rune Christensen 在同月发表的博客中表示，DAI 要与美元脱锚，协议要继续走去中心化的道路，以限制未来潜在的审查攻击。而 USDC 目前仍然是 DAI 最大的铸造抵押物。
商业伦理的正确性：由社区管理的 DeFi 是否应该配合监管的行动？DeFi 存在的重要价值就是无许可、自由、透明、匿名，当一个 DeFi 帮助监管机构打击其他 DeFi 协议和用户，它如何向自己的社区用户解释，并说服他们自己不会被监管驯服，做出有害社区利益的事？
除了 DeFi 之外，如果监管将手伸向以太坊的节点服务商，以太坊社区该如何应对。在以太坊社区针对这种情况的投票中，一种方案是将这种审查制度视为对以太坊的攻击，然后通过广泛共识去销毁配合监管的节点的质押权益；另一种方案，是容忍审查制度。Vitalik Buterin 清晰地表达了他的立场：将控制节点配合审查的行为视为对以太坊的攻击，并对这些验证者进行惩罚。

Tornado 监管事件让人们重新认识了“去中心化”的价值，而这一点在牛市里主打高性能的新公链高歌猛进时，在以太坊高昂的 Gas 成本面前，曾经显得不再那么重要。而在 Tornado 事件，以及 BNBchain 跨链桥增发攻击（主网停止运行，节点拉黑了攻击地址）之后，我们有必要对协议和网络的“去中心化”和抗审查能力重新评估价值。

The Tornado regulatory event brought a new sense of the value of “decentralization,” which was no longer so important in front of the high cost of the Tahrir Gas when the new public chain in the cow market, which was dominated by a high performance, went up. After the Tornado incident, and the BNBchain cross-chain bridge, which stopped running, the nodes blacked out the attack address, we need to reassess the value of the protocol and the network’s “decentralization” and resistance to censorship.

2022 年另一件让我印象深刻的事是大批量 DAO 的兴起与实践。

Another thing that struck me in 2022 was the rise and practice of a large number of DAOs.

DAO 这种组织和协作形式并不是 2022 年的新事物，此前众多加密项目早在以 DAO 的方式进行治理，在社区论坛进行讨论、发起选票、升级产品、拨付资金。

This form of organization and collaboration was not new in 2022, after numerous encryption projects had been managed in the way of DAOs, discussions in community forums, vote launches, product upgrades, and disbursement of funds.

但真正让整个加密社区开始重视和积极参与到 DAO 的风潮中的，是 2021 年年底的 ConstitutionDAO。ConstitutionDAO 以竞拍苏富比在 11 月中旬拍卖的官方初版印刷的美国宪法为使命，在短短几天内，通过募资平台 Juicebox 成功众筹到了超 1 万枚 ETH，时值 4300 万美元。当时加密货币交易平台 Gemini、Coinbase、a16z 等知名机构纷纷为其进行宣传。尽管最终 ConstitutionDAO 竞拍失败，但这一事件让人们看到了 DAO 惊人的组织能力和可能性，更重要的是 ConstitutionDAO 事件的巨大热度帮助其捐款凭证代币 People 在 12 月成功上线币安等一线交易平台，这一发轫于“民主”概念的项目代币，成为了 2021 年最后一个，也是 2022 年首个成功的 MEME 代币，在当时已经走凉的市场环境中逆市创造了不菲的财富效应。

However, the entire encryption community actually began to focus on and actively participate in the DAO wave. ConstitutionDAO, whose mission was to compete for the official first edition of the United States constitution that was auctioned by Sufubi in mid-November, was promoted by well-known institutions such as Gemini, Coinbase, and a16z at the end of 2021. Despite the eventual failure of the Constitution DAO, the event brought to light the amazing organizational capabilities and possibilities of the DAO, and, more importantly, the tremendous heat of the Constitution DAO event, which helped to raise over 10,000 ETHs in exchange for its donation vouchers, worth $43 million at that time.

ConstitutionDAO 在影响力和财富效应上的成功，终于让更广层面的加密用户关注和开始追逐 DAO 的概念，加密世界 DAO 组织数量的大爆炸也由此开始。DAO 成为了当时媒体和 SPACE 最热烈讨论和交流的话题，DAO 组织、DAO 工具的融资也很快在 2022 上半年热了起来。我也在当时加入了不少 DAO 社区，为以下几个问题寻找答案：

The success of ConstitutionDAO in terms of influence and wealth effects has finally brought the concept of DAO to the attention of a wider range of encryption users and started with a huge explosion in the number of organizations that encrypt the world DAO. DAO became the topic of the most intense discussion and exchange between the media and SPACE at the time, and the financing of DAO and DAO tools soon became hot in the first half of 2022. I joined the DAO community to find answers to the following questions:

DAO 这种组织形式相对于其他主流组织形式的优势场景是什么，它擅长解决哪些问题，不擅长解决的又是哪些问题？

What are the advantages of this form of organization vis-à-vis other mainstream forms of organization, what are the issues that it is good at solving and what are the problems that it is not good at solving?

区块链和加密商业为 DAO 提供的主要价值是什么？

What is the main value of the block chain and encryption business for DAO?

如何评估 DAO 组织做得好不好？

How do you assess how the DAO is doing?

目前来看，DAO 风潮逐渐转淡，尤其是使命单一、事件驱动型的 DAO（比如在宪法拍卖后又出现了竞拍蓝色起源登月名额的 DAO），但是许多定位于长期、综合目标的 DAO 组织依旧在运行，精益改善的努力还在持续。我距离最初寻找的其中 2 个问题的答案似乎也接近了一点：

At the moment, the DAO trend has faded, especially with the single mission, event-driven DAO (e.g., with a blue-origin slot in the wake of the constitutional auction), but many DAO organizations with long-term, integrated goals are still operating, and efforts to improve them are continuing. I also seem to be close to the answers to two of the first questions I've been looking for:

加密世界的 DAO 相对于公司制，优点在于更大的弹性。弹性意味着组织灵活的伸缩、包容度和民主性，其背后是透明的制度、开放的访问和协作通道、跨域地域\种族\文明的协作氛围。在目标明确、感召力极强的使命下，人们容易在 DAO 中实现快速聚集、积极行动。

The DAO of the encrypted world has the advantage of being more flexible than corporate. Resilient means flexible organizational flexibility, inclusiveness and democracy, underpinned by transparent systems, open access and collaboration channels, and a collaborative atmosphere across geographical areas. With a well-targeted and highly appealing mission, people can easily assemble and act in a fast-track DAO.

区块链和加密货币为 DAO 的透明性提供了低门槛的工具，也起到了自然筛选受众的作用（Web3 的用户们，天然对 DAO 的组织形式和价值观有好感）

当然，这些答案和思考离最终的结论尚远，因为现在 DAO 现在也离它们最好的形态尚远，有很大的进化空间。

Of course, these answers and reflections are far from the final conclusion, because now DAO is also far from their best form, and there's a lot of room for evolution.

我们回看 DAO 发展过程，促成它迎来第一波兴盛的并不是这种协作本身在组织行为学、管理学上有什么突破性的进展，反而是由于投机性热潮和财富效应，为这一概念吸引到了足够多的注意力、热钱和人才的流入，这成为 DAO 组织实践的养料。这再一次证明了投机泡沫在重要的技术进步和社会实践中的推动作用。

Looking back at the DAO’s development process, it is not that the collaboration itself has made a breakthrough in organizational behavior, management, but rather that it has attracted enough attention, money, and talent to this concept, which has fed into the practice of the DAO. This is yet another demonstration of the catalytic role of the speculative bubble in important technological advances and social practices.

至于 Luna 生态的迅速崩溃，在今年 3 月我曾写过一篇《千万美金赌局背后：Luna 到底是不是庞氏骗局？》。

With regard to the rapid collapse of the Luna ecology, in March this year I wrote a paper entitled ;

文章的核心观点是 Terra 不是主观的、传统意义上的庞氏骗局，这也不是大家的主要分歧点，主要分歧点是 Terra 的公链发展模式：

The central point of the article is that Terra is not a subjective, traditional Ponzi scheme, nor is it the main point of disagreement, but the main point of disagreement is the public-chain development model of Terra:

“支持者认为：Terra 的高息存款类似于互联网领域的获客和留存补贴，尽管前期有巨量亏损，但是从用户总的生命周期来看，目前补贴的钱未来会从长期的生态繁荣中迂回地赚回来；反对者认为 Terra 的这种补贴 + 公链代币&稳定币挂钩的发展模式难以形成稳态，最终会在某次 Luna 价格大跌的负螺旋中走向死亡。”

“According to the view that the high interest deposits of Terra are similar to the recipients and retention subsidies in the Internet sector and that, despite the large losses experienced in the previous period, the current subsidy will in the long term be recovered from the long-term ecological boom in the light of the overall life cycle of the users, and to the opposing view that this subsidy of Terra + the development model of the public chain & stable currency linkage is difficult to achieve stability and will eventually lead to death in a negative spiral with a sharp fall in Luna's prices.”

文章也对 Terra 的脆弱点、业务模式和潜在风险做了分析：

The article also analyses the vulnerabilities, business models and potential risks of Terra:

脆弱点：Terra 生态的脆弱点在于其生态代币 Luna 的经济带宽不足，UST 的稳定能力是不及 DAI 这类去中心化稳定币的。

Fragility: The ecological vulnerability of Terra is due to the inadequate bandwidth of its ecological token, Luna, and the unsustainability of the UST, which is not comparable to the decentralized and stable currency such as DAI.

业务模式：而为了推动叙事，构建更强的经济带宽，Terra 基于其稳定币 + 公链的双轮模式，构建了一套自我强化的业务模式，顺序如下：

Business model: In order to promote narratives and build stronger economic bandwidth, Terra constructed a self-enhanced business model based on its two-wheel model of stable currency + public chain, in the following order:

1.首先在公链内自造 DeFi 场景并提供补贴（Anchor 为代表），塑造了稳定币需求

1. Self-made DeFi scenes and subsidies (represented by Ancor) are first created in the public chain, shaping the need for stable currency.

2.需求推动了 UST 的铸造规模，用户开始被引入

2. Demand drives the size of UST casting and users are beginning to be introduced

3.提高生态的数据表现，如 TVL、地址数、转账活跃度和参与生态的项目数

3. Increasing ecological data performance, such as TVL, number of addresses, transfer activity and number of projects involved in ecology

4.指标的提振强化了 Luna 叙事的吸引力

4. The boost of indicators has increased the attractiveness of Luna's narrative

5.基于共识和基本面的改善，得以推动与更多头部项目的合作

5. Consensus-based and fundamental improvements have enabled the promotion of cooperation with more head projects

6.叙事和共识的增强，提升了 Luna 的交易广度（投资者的人数和区域）和交易深度，并逐步推高价格

6. Increased narrative and consensus increased the breadth and depth of Luna's transactions (number and region of investors) and gradually higher prices

7.实控方以套现或销毁 Luna 的方式获得资金

7. The prosecution obtained funds either by cashing or destroying Luna

8.用套现的资金继续补贴【环节 1】，推动以上循环

8. Continue subsidizing [Pillar 1] with cash-based funds to drive the cycle above

在这个循环中，这个业务模式的主要支出环节是【环节 1】，而主要收入环节是【环节 7】，只要【环节 7】的收益足以支撑【环节 1】，该循环就能持续，帮助 Terra 向其两大商业目标迈进：

In this cycle, the main expenditure element of the business model is [Pillar 1] and the main income link is [Pillar 7] and as long as the proceeds of [Pillar 7] are sufficient to support [Pillar 1], the cycle is sustainable and helps Terra move towards its two main business objectives:

风险点：维护 Terra 的业务循环的主要挑战，在于 3-6 环节的叙事构建过程出现问题，即 Luna 代币价格的维护成本越来越高，导致【环节 7】的收入和资金不足以支撑【环节 1】的补贴。

造成这种问题出现的可能因素包括：

Possible factors contributing to such problems include:

以上业务循环并未实际吸引到足够的开发者和用户进入 Terra 生态，市场对 Terra 的叙事看法转向消极，或是现行的公链价值评估框架发生重大变化。

The above business cycle does not actually attract enough developers and users to enter the Terra ecology, the market's perception of Terra's narratives has turned negative, or the existing public-chain value assessment framework has undergone significant changes.

如果你是 Luna 的投资者或 UST 的持有者，需要对以上情况非常警惕。

If you are a Luna investor or a UST holder, you need to be very vigilant about this.

Terra 生态仅在文章发布不到 2 个月内就崩溃了，事后证明有些事说对了，比如 Luna 暴跌导致的负螺旋的大背景是熊市的逐渐深入，大部分加密资产在普跌。但是也有一些重要的可能性被忽略了，比如推倒 Terra 金融积木的不是“生态赶不上币价导致消极叙事”这类长期因素，而是定向的狙击。事实证明当机制存在脆弱性时，这个脆弱性的实际情况会远比设计时的更严重，因为攻击者会千方百计杠杆撬动这个脆弱点，从大规模的崩溃中获益。

Terra’s ecology collapsed within less than two months of the publication of the article, and proved right after that, for example, the larger context of the negative spiral caused by Luna’s collapse was the deepening of the bear market, with most of the encrypted assets falling. But there are also important possibilities that have been overlooked, such as taking down the Terra financial build-up not as long-term factors such as “the ecological failure to keep pace with currency leads to negative narratives,” but as targeted snipers.

但是 Terra 早期的成功也证明了一件事，面对公链强大的网络效应，想要击败以太坊，一定不能重走以太坊成功的路径。

But the early success of Terra is also proof that, in the face of the powerful network effects of the public chain, it is necessary to defeat Ether-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e-e.

下一个周期：依旧看好 DeFi

Next cycle : Still watch DeFi

在下一个周期里，我依旧看好 DeFi 的发展，并一直在熊市里积极搜索优质的 DeFi 标的，无论是低估的老项目，还是价值尚未被发掘的新秀。理由很简单：金融本身是产业发展的基础，包括我国在内的各大经济体发展历程中，金融产业的市值和利润都共享了经济发展的红利。而在价值互联网的商业中，价值被资产化、流动、交易、增效的需求和频次将几倍于信息互联网，DeFi 在其中的基础设置作用只会更明显。

In the next cycle, I am still watching DeFi’s development and have been actively searching for high-quality DeFi targets in Bear City, whether undervalued old projects or new ones whose value has yet to be discovered. The simple reason is that finance itself is the basis for industrial development, in which the market value and profits of large economies, including my own, share the dividends of economic development.

当然了，DeFi 的发展也面临着潜在的风险，比如前面说到的监管的扩大化，可能会让很多原本可以探索的模式和方向发展变得缓慢。这意味着我们对于 DeFi 项目的投资评估需要更加严苛。

Of course, DeFi’s development also faces potential risks, such as the expansion of regulation described earlier, which may slow down many of the models and directions that could have been explored. This means that our investment assessments for the DeFi project need to be more rigorous.

在具体 DeFi 项目的筛选上，除了那些竞争优势比较明显的龙头之外，我也很喜欢那些积极进行原生的 Web3 创新，注意业务协同性和组合性，在熊市依旧非常勤奋的项目，FRAX 便是其中之一。它除了最早的稳定币业务（包括美元稳定币 FRAX 和通胀锚定货币 FPI）之外，已经上线了 Lending、Staking 和 DEX，目前社区还在讨论 BTC 的封装业务，这些业务最重要的特点是相互之间的组合和协同性很强，相互之间有正外部性。此外，Frax 也是最早意识到 Curve 治理价值的项目之一，在 Curve 社区有很好的治理基础。

In the screening of specific DeFi projects, in addition to the more obvious champions of competitive advantages, I also like those that are active in original Web3 innovations, paying attention to business synergies and combinations, one of which is FRAX, which is still a very diligent project in Bear City. In addition to its earliest currency stabilization operations (including the dollar-stabilized currency FRAX and the inflation-set currency FPI), it is already online, and the community is currently discussing BTC sealing operations, the most important features of which are strong combinations and synergies and positive externalities. In addition, Frax is one of the first projects to be aware of the governance value of Curve, which has a good governance base in the community of Curve.

但 FRAX 团队实名且身在美国，在美国监管重点已经明确指向稳定币和 DeFi 的大背景下，这令人担忧。

However, the fact that the FRAX team is well known and present in the United States is a cause for concern in a context in which the regulatory focus in the United States has clearly been directed towards the stabilization of the currency and the DeFi.

2022 年其他的一些思考：

2022 Other reflections:

竞争壁垒的弱化：Web3 投资的主要难点

我们经常从“竞争优势”角度来思考和评估投资标的，但这一标准在 Web3 投资领域践行时会面临很多挑战，比如：

We often think about and evaluate investment targets in terms of “competitive advantage”, but this criterion will face many challenges when applied in the Web3 investment area, such as:

当一个行业不存在明显的竞争壁垒，这对于投资者和创业者来说都是噩梦。在 Web3 商业领域想要构建垄断比互联网时代更难，这可能意味着在这里投资追求绝对的“长期”、“壁垒”是很困难的，更重要的是谁能更早找到边缘处的创新，谁能做到极致的效率（在缺少壁垒的市场，效率是生存的关键）。

When there are no obvious barriers to competition in an industry, this is a nightmare for investors and entrepreneurs alike. It is more difficult to build monopolies in the business area of Web3 than in the Internet age, which may mean that it is difficult to invest in absolute “long-term” “barriers” here, and, more importantly, who can find marginal innovations earlier and who can achieve great efficiency (in markets where barriers are lacking, efficiency is the key to survival).

经济模型≠商业模式

Economic Model

StepN 的故事告诉我们：经济模型≠商业模式。只有庞氏才会把经济模型作为产品本身推向市场，否则经济模型的作用应该是协调、润滑商业模式里的多方关系。代币经济学家企图用一套经济模型解决“产品增长”（X to earn 的实际目的）、上市募资和企业治理等多方面的问题，这是一个值得尝试的高难度动作？还是一个完全的妄念，仍然有待观察。但不管怎么说，我们对“这个项目尝试解决什么问题”的关心，应该放在“它的经济模型怎么样”之前。

The story of StepN tells us that the economic model is a business model. Only Ponzi pushes the economic model into the market as a product itself. Otherwise, the role of the economic model should be to coordinate and lubricate the multiplicity of relationships in the business model.

Web3 所创造的价值是更大的自由与更低成本的信任

The value created by Web3 is greater freedom and lower-cost trust

Web3 的底层价值是什么？这是一个所有投入到 Web3 进行创业、投资的人都应该持续思考的问题。我现阶段的答案是它的无许可性和全球性，提供了一个规模和边界空前广大的自由市场，而代码开源和数据的可验证性，为这个空前的自由市场提供了更低的信任成本，繁荣由此而生。

What is the bottom value of Web3? It is a question that all those who invest in Web3 entrepreneurship and investment should think about on a continuous basis. My answer at this stage is its unlicensed and global nature, providing a free market of unprecedented size and boundaries, while the open source of the code and the authentication of data provide a lower cost of trust for this unprecedented free market, and boom.

因此，没有利用好 Web3 的核心优势“自由”与“信任”的项目，在商业上会面临更大的难度，比如做现实资产上链的项目，并没有摆脱原来的信用体系（基于法律、政府的资产确权）。而原生的 Web3 资产、业务流可以全部在链化的项目，天然就具有优势，会更值得我们花时间去研究。

Thus, projects that do not take advantage of the “freedom” and “trust” of the core advantage of Web3 will face greater commercial difficulties, such as projects that make the upper chain of real assets and do not move away from the original credit system (law-based, government-based asset determination). The original Web3 assets and business streams that can be all chained up have natural advantages and are more worthy of our time to study.

Alex Xu 的主要关注领域：DeFi 和消费级 Web3 应用

Alex Xu's main areas of concern: DeFi and Consumer Level Web3 Application

Alex Xu 的过往文章（2022）：

Previous article by Alex Xu (2022):

Pocket Network： Web3 基础设施层的革命者

全面解析 Arweave：业务逻辑、产品生态、市场竞争与项目估值

Web3 音乐赛道：市场背景、商业价值、爆发路径和投资机会

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千万美金赌局背后：Luna 到底是不是庞氏骗局？

从货币协议到 DeFi 矩阵，多角度解析 Frax.finance

监管之雷终于降临，去中心化稳定币的春天要来了吗？

Was it the spring of centralization?

Web3 的底层价值，以及如何用它做好投资？

Alex Xu 的 Twitter：@xuxiaopengmint

Alex Xu Twitter: <

回顾过去的 1 年行业发展历程，脑中首先蹦出来的是 3 件事情:

Looking back at the past 1 year of industry development, the first thing that comes out of the brain is three things:

第一件事是今年 3 月份的“辍学 All In Web3.0”，与大众的情绪相关

The first thing about strong is the March drop-out of all In Web3.0 this year, which is related to the mood of the public .

这一条口号随后演化出了“辞职 All In Web3.0”、“离婚 All In Web3.0”等其他同样吸引眼球的口号。一些 DAO、KOL 还有知名机构也加入到了这个讨论中，印象中当时打开推特，就能出现冠以这些口号的 space，讨论也非常热烈。虽然之前阅读各种金融泡沫的书时也看到过类似的口号，但这是我第一次真切地体会这个过程。

This slogan then evolved other similarly attractive slogans such as “Resignation All In Web3.0,” and “Divorce All In Web3.0.” Some DAOs, KOLs, and other well-known institutions joined the discussion, and the impression that when Twitter was turned on, there was a space with these slogans, and the discussion was very lively.

这件事情让我有几个感想：首先，泡沫持续的时间越长，参与其中的投资者越容易相信“永恒牛市”。其次，crypto 的泡沫与传统资本市场相比，更容易出圈。“辍学”的是学生群体，这在过去很多泡沫中并不常见。最后，“肉身梭哈”这件事不是不能干，但考验投资者的“择时”能力。

First, the longer the bubble lasts, the easier it is for the investors involved to believe in the Eternal Cow Market. Second, the bubbles in Crypto are easier to get out than traditional capital markets.

第二件事是 Luna 大崩盘，与项目的基本面相关

The second thing about strong is the Luna crash, which is related to the basics of the project .

今年 3 月底，市场中就有人预估 LFG（Terra 的生态基金，为 Anchor 协议提供利息补贴）的储备只能撑不到 2 个月，当时还有在 Anchor 中存钱的朋友来问我 Terra 的风险，虽然我给他的建议是在储备到之前要尽快把钱提取出来，但我没想到 Terra 会如此迅速的崩盘，也没有想到即便是很多大机构也深陷其中。

At the end of March of this year, it was estimated in the market that the reserves of the LFG (Terra's ecological fund, which provides interest subsidies for the Anchoor agreement) would not last for two months, when there were friends who had saved money in Anchoor asking me about the risks of Terra, and although I advised him to withdraw the money as soon as possible before the reserves arrived, I didn't think that Terra would crash so quickly, and that even a lot of big institutions would fall into it.

回到 Terra 本身，早期的“旁氏 marketing”可能并没有对错之分，但在 Luna 起飞后的 1 年多时间内 Terra 生态发展仍然失衡，并没有通过“Luna-Anchor”飞轮让生态繁荣起来，这或许才是 Terra 生态崩盘的根本。

Back to Terra itself, the early Ponzi may have been right, but more than a year after Luna took off, Terra's ecological development remains unbalanced, and it has not been allowed to flourish through the “Luna-Anchor” wheels, which may be fundamental to the Terra ecological collapse.

短期来看，Luna 的恐慌源自于链上 UST 的脱锚和狙击，而这恰恰源自于 Luna 在链上的池子流动性较浅之时。我更倾向于把 UST 脱锚看成一次狙击。Crypto 领域不乏聪明的投资者，他们不仅仅能发现存在瑕疵的项目，也能捕捉到顺势推倒泡沫的窗口，以及利用好链上活动透明这一属性来发动更多倒向自己的投资者。与这样精明的猎人存在于同一个生态之中，对我来说需要比以往更加了解项目的风险点，不求能成为一名猎人，但求当猎杀行动发生时自己不要受伤。

In the short term, Luna’s panic stems from the unlocking and sniping of the UST on the chain, precisely when Luna’s pool on the chain is less mobile. I prefer to see the UST off the anchor as a sniper. Smart investors in the Crypto field not only discover defective projects, but also capture the window that pushes the bubble, and use the attributes of transparency in the good chain to launch more investors to themselves. With such a sophisticated hunter in the same ecology, it is more important for me to understand the risk point of the project than ever before, not to be a hunter, but not to be injured when hunting takes place.

第三件事是 Sudoswap 的 NFT AMM，与产品创新相关

The third thing about strong is the NFT AMM of Sudoswap, which is related to product innovation.

NFT 在最近这 1 年多时间的爆发，让我们看到了诸如 SandBox、BAYC、Axie Infinity、StepN 等诸多惊艳的项目，但 NFT 本身还在早期起步阶段。以大众参与度和热情最高的 PFP 为例，除了少数头部项目做出了差异化和持续推进路线图之外，市场中大部分在发行之后走向沉寂。Sudoswap 推出的 NFT AMM 默认了 NFT 其实非同质化程度较弱的属性，而更像是同质化的虚拟资产。从交易的角度上看，我认可 Sudoswap 的这种做法，但从长期来看，NFT 的发展不会停留在此，我更愿意去期待一个非同质化程度更高的 NFT 世界。NFT 的权益、形态、所承载的内容都还有很大的创作空间。

NFT’s recent eruption over the past year has shown such amazing projects as SandBox, BayC, Axie Infinity, and StepN, but NFT itself is at an early start. In terms of trade, I recognize the Sudoswap’s approach, but in the long run NFT’s development will not stay, and I would prefer to expect a more non-congenital NFT world. NFT’s interests, forms, and content have a lot of creative space.

展望下一轮牛市，目前我认为有 5 个方面值得期待：

Looking ahead to the next round of cattle, I think there are five ways to look forward: .

第一个是去中心化稳定币

/strang'

从“稳定币”概念诞生到现在，已经经历了 3 次浪潮，特别是 2020 年起的这一波浪潮，在底层资产、锚定机制等方面都做出了各种创新，但经历了今年的熊市洗礼，存活下来的基本只有法币抵押稳定币和其他数字货币超额抵押稳定币，稳定币的创新似乎回到了原点。“去中心化稳定币”不仅仅拥有“非主权货币”的特点，还能实现与现实生活的各种活动打通的实际使用价值。在世界经济愈发动荡的今天和未来，我们需要的去中心化稳定币不止于刚刚提到的两种类型。因此，我认为在下一轮牛市中，“去中心化稳定币”仍然会是牛市中一个值得关注的赛道，或许能出现在抵押物、锚定机制、价值捕获能力上都让人眼前一亮的项目，项目方也能有很强的 marketing 能力，让这类稳定币在 crypto 世界中高速流通起来。

From the beginning of the concept of “stable currency” to the present, there have been three waves, particularly since 2020, with innovations in bottom assets, anchoring mechanisms, but after this year’s Bear City baptizing, the basic survival of which is the French-backed and other digital currency over-collateralization of stable currency seems to be back to square one. “decentralized stabilizer” not only has the characteristics of a “non-sovereign currency,” but also achieves the real use value of real-life activities. In today and the future of the world economy, we need to decentralize the stable currency more than the two types just mentioned.

第二个是无抵押借贷

在我看来，V 神“灵魂绑定代币”概念的提出某种意义上正式表明区块链技术进入了可大规模使用的阶段。只有用户深度介入链上活动、链上的经济活动对于现实生活有更加多元的影响时，“灵魂绑定代币”代币才具有意义。正如同微信 / 推特账号一样，如果一旦丢失会给现实生活带来较大的不便，此时这类虚拟世界的身份才有重要价值。而当一个人链上的活动、身份可以用灵魂绑定代币来标记之后，crypto 天然的金融属性就将与之结合，在众多的新金融业务之下，我更看好无抵押借贷赛道。现在的无抵押借贷赛道，主要是针对机构，个人想使用信用借贷的难度很高。下一轮牛市或许将出现针对个人的便捷的无抵押借贷业务，它的业务规模和增速或许会超出我们的想象。

In my view, the introduction of the concept of “sult-bound tokens” in V officially indicates that block-chain technology has entered a stage of large-scale use. Only when the user is deeply involved in the chain, and economic activity on the chain has a more multifaceted effect on real life, is “soul-bound tokens” meaningful.

第三个是 NFT 底层资产的创新带来证券化方面的创新

非同质化资产在传统金融领域带来的飞跃要追溯到 20 世纪 70 年代的资产证券化浪潮。当时以个人住房抵押贷款做底层资产的 ABS，带动了一系列金融衍生品的发展。因此，随着 NFT 本身的现金流价值、权益价值的丰富，未来相应的证券化机会也会蓬勃发展。现在基于 PFP 的抵押借贷或许只是 NFT-Fi 的短暂瞬间。

As a result, with the NFT’s own cash flow value and equity value, future securitization opportunities will flourish. Mortgage lending based on PFP may now be only a brief moment for NFT-Fi.

第四个是去中心化存储

“去中心化社会”的基石之一是去中心化存储，这是数据层面的“去中介化”。我们已经看到了越来越多 NFT 选择去中心化存储服务，未来随着 crypto 的发展，这方面的需求也会增长。当前的一个问题在于，传统商业领域还没有看到去中心化存储带来的显著优势，或许去中心化存储的爆发还需要等待传统商业世界因为中心化存储暴雷而引发风险之后。

One of the cornerstones of “de-centralized societies” is de-centralized storage, which is “de-intermediated” at the data level. We have seen an increasing number of NFTs choosing to de-centralize storage services, which will grow in demand in the future as crypto develops.

第五个是随着监管介入，crypto 会越来越合规，在这种情况下能顺利 onboard Web2.0 用户的应用

fifth is that with regulatory intervention, crypto will become more compliant, and in this case it will be smooth onboard Web 2.0 user applications

过去的 2 年，有 crypto 圈外的朋友来问我如何进入 Web3.0 世界。不过“助记词”、“钱包”、“入金”、“网络”等概念让他们眼花缭乱，大部分朋友即便在我协助下完成了入门，但很快就放在一边。因此，如何降低用户进入门槛成为了 Web3.0 有待解决的重要课题。在这方面，有不少钱包在做出各种尝试，也有其他赛道的项目方在进行尝试，但到目前为止，能把产品的“可玩性”、“易用性”、“投资 / 交易的顺畅度”、“趣味的持续性”很好整合在一起的项目屈指可数。我倒不认为独立的“钱包”项目一定是未来 Web3.0 用户的必要门户。能把几个维度综合起来的项目，未来会成为爆款。我不知道这类项目会出现在哪个细分领域，但我倾向于它会出现在 NFT 的某个细分方向。

Over the past two years, friends outside the crypto circle have come to me to ask me how to get into the Web3.0 world. But the concepts of “assistive words”, “boughts”, “bought money”, “nets” and “networks” have upset them, and most of them, even with my help, have quickly been sidelined. So how to lower the user threshold is an important subject to be addressed by Web3.0. In this regard, there are a lot of wallets trying, and there are other track projects, but so far, there are many projects that can be “funableable”, “friendliness”, “investment/tradability”, “continuity of fun” that are well integrated. I don't think that the stand-alone “blank” project must be the necessary portal for future web3.0 users.

Colin Li 的主要关注领域：稳定币、无抵押借贷、去中心化存储、流动性质押协议

Colin Li's main areas of concern: stable currency, non-collateral lending, decentralized storage, mobile pledge

Colin Li 的的过往文章（2022）：

Past article by Colin Li (2022):

CeFi 爆雷潮中的 TrueFi：机构信用借贷业务的风险与机遇

TrueFi: Risks and Opportunities in Institutional Credit and Loans in CeFi

Colin Li 的 Twitter：@ly_wander

Colin Li Twitter:

过去的一年时间中，给我印象最深的：

In the past year, I've been most impressed:

第一个是年初 Yuga Labs “重新定义种子轮”

估值 40 亿美元的种子轮让人印象尤为深刻。流传出的 Yuga Labs Pitch Deck 中可见，这家 2021 年 2 月成立的公司，不仅 2021 年全年收入达到 1.37 亿美元，净利率也超过 90%，在追捧高毛利公司的硅谷，这个”天价种子轮”似乎也确实合理。

Seen in the passing Yuga Labs Pitch Deck, a company founded in February 2021, with a total annual income of $137 million and a net interest rate of more than 90%, seems to be reasonable in pursuing the silicon valley of the high Maori company.

不过，这笔交易也可能是这个周期里传统基金在 Crypto 领域 FOMO 造就的泡沫巅峰。那时大几十万刀购买的 BAYC，目前地板价不到 10 万刀。泡沫过后，虽然受伤的是部分持有者，但 ApeCoin DAO 在短短八个月里，确实用每周 2-4 个值得投票的提案，将董事会逐渐由投资人向社区成员转移，和较为审慎的提议、审核、投票、执行流程，给所有向往成为有“活力十足的自治社区”的 NFT 项目打了个样。

However, the deal may also be the peak of a bubble created by the Heritage Foundation in the Crypto field of FOMO during the cycle. The BAYC, purchased at hundreds of thousands of knives, is now less than 100,000 on the floor. After the bubble, although some of the holders were injured, ApeCoin DAO did, in just eight months, use 2-4 proposals worth voting per week to gradually transfer the board of directors from investors to community members, and a more prudent process of proposal, vetting, voting, and execution, to give a look at all NFT projects that aspire to be “a viable self-governing community”.

第二个是 StepN 的病毒式传播，以及 GMT 半年后无可避免的冲高回落

The second is the viral spread of Stepn and the inevitable collapse of GMT six months later.

X-to-Earn 的双代币模型最多可以膨胀到什么样的程度？今年 4-5 月的 StepN 给了我们答案。相比双代币模型 + X-to-Earn 的鼻祖 Axie，StepN 的体验更“轻量级”（不是人人都能在电脑前打一天游戏，但人人都会揣着手机走路），钱包体验交互更丝滑，最初的体验上手更简单——细分市场的洞察和产品细节的打磨让 StepN 从一众 Axie 的模仿者里脱颖而出，虽然游戏热度维持的时长难以与 Axie 媲美，但巅峰期的用户规模（据福布斯 5 月时的报道，MAU 最高 230 万）与 Axie 相差无几，巅峰期月收入也超过 1 亿美元。

X-to-Earn’s bigenerational model can expand to what extent? This year’s April-May StepN gave us the answer. Compared to the bigenerational model + X-to-Earn’s nose, Axie, StepN has a more “lightweight” experience (not everyone can play a day in front of a computer, but everyone can walk), wallet experiences are more silky, initial experiences are simpler -- Stepn’s insights and product details have led to a breakdown of the market from a group of Axie imitators, and although the heat of the game is difficult to maintain compared to that of Axie, the size of the users of the peak period (as reported in Forbes May, MAU’s highest 2.3 million) is quite different from Axie’s, and peak monthly revenues are more than $100 million.

https://activeplayer.io/axie-infinity/

尽管 StepN 有摩擦极小的病毒式传播，丝滑的产品体验和极为精细的代币消耗机制，双代币模型的脆弱仍然在用户增长乏力时展现。对投资该项目的 VC 来说，目前 GMT 的价格仍然可以维持一个相当可观的收益（近百倍），但 VC 解锁时 GMT 的价格会进入什么区间仍未可知。而对于用 X-to-Earn 的幻梦想从 VC 融资的项目方，有三个不得不面对的问题：

Although StepN has a very small viral spread of friction, silky product experience, and a very sophisticated proxy consumption mechanism, the weakness of the bigenerational model is still evident when users grow weak. For VCs who invest in the project, GMT prices can still sustain a considerable gain (nearly 100 times), but it is not clear where the price of GMT will enter when VC unlocks. And there are three problems that have to be faced with projects financed from VC with an X-to-Earn fantasy:

潜在市场规模（TAM），产品细节的打磨，经济系统的治理能力，是否能超过 StepN？

如果不能，只能寄希望于给 VC 更短的解锁时间，换取更早退出的可能性——但 Hype 结束立刻走人可能也会伤害 VC 的品牌，毕竟一级市场是一个品牌比钱更重要的行业。

由于币价提升，或者潜在的赚钱预期蜂拥而至的用户逐渐流失之后，产品会留下什么？

Hype 会对产品产生怎样的影响？Hype 结束之后，会比用户进入之前，给用户带来更好的体验吗？

How does Hype affect the product? Will it give the user a better experience after than before the user enters?

以及，从 Axie 到 StepN，或者从 StepN 的 Solana 链，到 BSC 链和 ETH 链，可以看出当用户不相信这个击鼓传花的游戏会一直进行，Ponzi 的生命周期只越来越短。如何通过增大潜在市场规模、改进机制、提升经济系统的治理，来保证 Ponzi 不会在几周内破灭？

第三个是 Limit Break 的推出，传统游戏行业的成功创业者进入 Web3，拿到 2 亿美元的巨额融资引领行业趋势

The third is the launch of Limit Break, where successful entrepreneurs from the traditional game industry enter Web3 and receive $200 million in huge financing-led industry trends .

Gabriel Leydon 是游戏大厂 Machine Zone 的前 CEO，经历过 Atari 的街机时代，抓住过移动游戏、Free-to-Play 的风口，发行过多款成功游戏，这样一个“连续成功创业者”进入 Web3 游戏对于整个行业来说都是一种鼓舞。进入 Web3 创业不应该是“行业热钱多，其他地方不好融资”的退而求其次，而应该是“看准机会，大刀阔斧行动”的主动选择。

Gabriel Leydon, a former CEO of the big game factory Machine Zone, has experienced the days of Atari, has captured mobile games, Free-to-Play, and has issued too many successful games, and such a “successful start-up” into the Web3 game is an inspiration for the industry as a whole. Entering the Web3 business should not be a backlash for “high money in the industry, bad finance elsewhere” but rather a proactive choice for “watching opportunities, big action”.

而 Limit Break 旗下 DigiDaigaku 的发布和其后系列 NFT 的走势，都很好地说明了一个擅长市场、擅长游戏化的操盘手可以将 NFT 的游戏化运营到何等出神入化的程度。Gabriel Leydon 21 年做客的播客是我当年的年度最佳，清晰的远见和论证极为丰富的展望让我为之折服，而项目今年 9 月至今的进展也让我非常期待它会如何改变 Web3 游戏的机制设计和宣发模式。

And the release of DigiDigaku under Limit Break and the movement of the next series of NFT are good examples of how a market-skilled, game-player can turn NFT games into an enormity. Gabriel Leydon, 21-year-old podcasts were my best year, a clear vision and a very rich argument for me, and the progress of the project this September to date makes me very much looking forward to how it will change the design and dissemination of the Web3 game.

关于下一个牛市周期，值得关注的趋势和投资机会：

on trends and investment opportunities of concern for the next cattle cycle:

可能有些老生常谈——尤其在大家放弃单个项目专注基础设施的当下——但我仍然认为最好的机会在 Killer App。新用户在意的并不是以太坊，Polygon，Solana 还是 Aptos，他们在意的是什么 App 有意思，什么 App 我的朋友都在用。

There's probably some old talk — especially at a time when you're giving up on individual projects to focus on infrastructure — but I still think the best chance is at Killer App. The new user doesn't care about Ether, Polygon, Solana, or Aptos, what they're thinking about at App, what's interesting, what App my friends are using.

底层区块链、钱包、或者各种具有可组合性的小组件，他们固然有一定的技术壁垒，但相比「拥有数百万高粘性活跃用户」来说，并不是真正的壁垒。Steam 成为游戏平台的前提是 Valve 的《半条命》需要在上面下载——内容带来流量，而不是流量带来内容。目前大多数游戏平台都在寄希望于流量带来内容，而流量的来源则是空投预期和商务合作的转赞评抽奖——这样的流量价值不高，壁垒也很弱。

The bottom block chains, wallets, or combinations of groups are technical barriers, but they are not real barriers compared to the "millions of highly sticky and active users." The premise for Staam to become a game platform is that Valve's Half-life needs to be downloaded -- content brings traffic, not traffic.

因此，我仍然认为，从内容，从 App 走向平台 / 基础设施是容易的，而从基础设施 / 平台走向内容则更难，尤其在巨头林立的当下。年初 StepN 的火爆让 Solana 宕机也是很好的例子，大多数用户可能从来没有接触过 Solana，或者从来没有接触过 Web3，但这并不妨碍他们在 StepN 玩（亏）得开心。

Therefore, I still believe that it is easy to move from content, from App to platform/ infrastructure, and from infrastructure/platform to content, especially at a time when giant trees are standing. The fire in StepN at the beginning of the year has also been a good example of how most users may have never had contact with Solana or with Web3, but this does not prevent them from having fun with StepN.

关于产品和 Tokenomics，我认为当前市场下 Tokenomics 的重要性被过于强调了，而 PMF（Product Market Fit）被过于忽视了。

With regard to products and Tokenomics, I think the importance of Tokenomics in the current market has been over-emphasized, and the PMF (Product Market Fit) has been over-neglected.

PMF（Product Market Fit，即产品与市场需求的契合，编者注）被过分忽视的结果是，Tokenomics 的飞轮让伪需求转起来了，回到第一个问题对 X-to-Earn 项目的三个考量，实质是在思考「如何延长生态繁荣的时间」和「提升繁荣时期项目的收入」，再对应投资人的收入。伪需求可以被 Ponzi 驱动转起来，但一旦泡沫破灭，市场中没有新用户进入，繁荣的周期只会越来越短。

The result of the over-neglect of the PMF (Product Market Fit, i.e., the alignment of products with market demand, editor's note) is that Tokenomics' flying wheels allow false demand to turn, and

Tokenomics 也很重要，好的 Tokenomics 可以促进增长、维持长期繁荣，同时应该与产品本身的机制和目的结合。市面上 Tokenomics 在平均水平以下的项目都在犯同一个毛病：只理解双代币模型带来的潜在增长，忽视了产品希望解决的问题，在什么时期需要增长，面对的是怎样的用户，以及与此对应的，经济模型应该如何辅助增长需求。实际上，真正的需求也可能因为 Tokenomics 增长得更好，因为可以解决的需求本身就能产生（没有投资回报预期的）收入，而 Tokenomics 将资产高度证券化，极大地促进了早期用户获取的飞轮。

Tokenomics are also important, and good Tokenomics can promote growth and sustain long-term prosperity, and should be combined with the mechanism and purpose of the product itself. On the market, Tokenomics has the same problem at the level of the average: understanding only the potential growth of the double-currency model, ignoring the problems that the product wishes to solve, at what time it needs to grow, what users it is faced with, and how economic models should complement growth demand.

最近在重新理解 2000 年前后出现的互联网公司的历史，当年的硅谷在泡沫化抬高估值的操作和现在的 Crypto 圈颇为相似：头部 VC 投出了一两个 Amazon、eBay 此类上市的项目，后续投资的创业公司就有了很好的估值支撑——即使不一定真的找到了 PMF，一个很棒的故事可能可以让上市公司买单，而上市公司再借由创新概念股价再创新高。而在 PayPal 还尚未普及的年代，估值上百亿美元的 eBay 居然是由一个“需要寄支票才能在网上购买二手娃娃”的故事支撑，看起来十分荒谬。在这样的荒谬里，泡沫破灭了，但新一代互联网巨头成长了起来，Amazon 就是新一代巨头中拥有近万亿美元市值的佼佼者。

Recently, the history of Internet companies that emerged around 2000 was re-understood, with Silicon Valley operating in a bubble-up-valued manner similar to the current Crypto Circle: head VC has invested in one or two projects like Amazon, eBay, and the subsequent investing start-up companies have excellent valuation support – even if the PMF is not necessarily found – and a great story may have allowed listed companies to purchase their bills, while listed companies borrow their shares in innovative concepts to innovate again. And, in PayPal’s age, eBay, valued at $10 billion, is supported by a story of “required cheques to buy second-hand dolls online,” which seems absurd. In this absurd scenario, the bubbles have burst, but the new generation of Internet giants has grown, and Amazon is the first to have a market value of almost trillion dollars in the new generation.

而对比 eBay 和 Amazon 的股价变化，我们可以看出一些新东西：一个找准自己定位，始终保持创新的产品将会怎样在经历周期后逐渐脱颖而出。

In contrast to eBay and Amazon's changes in stock prices, we can see something new: how a product that is able to position itself and always remains innovative will emerge after a cycle of experience.

1998 年 eBay 上市时，市值 7 亿美元，00 年互联网泡沫的巅峰时期，市值最高达到 144 亿美元，01 年泡沫破灭时，最低回归到 32 亿美元。（想想 BTC ETH 的腰斩再腰斩…）
1997 年 Amazon 上市时，市值 4 亿美元，00 年互联网泡沫的巅峰时期，市值最高达到 360 亿美元，01 年泡沫破灭时，最低回归到 21 亿美元。（比山寨币更跌宕起伏…）

但后续两家公司的走向则截然不同：

But the next two companies are moving in a different direction:

eBay 04 年走到 330 亿美元，在 21 年的泡沫里最高冲到 549 亿美元，现在则回归到 230 亿美元。
Amazon 则一路高歌，从 01 年的 21 亿美元，到 21 年泡沫中最高冲到近 2 万亿美元，现在尽管有所回落，市值仍接近一万亿美元。

对于 01 年看着手中的股票以各种幅度贬值的投资者，恐怕很难想象它们日后将走向何方。对于加密信仰者来说，现在的 Crypto 市场就像 01 年 .com bubble 破灭一片狼藉的现场。手头的 token 是下一个 Amazon，还是下一个 eBay？或者是在寒冬中倒闭的无数寂寂无名的公司？

For investors who watched the stock in their hands depreciate at various scales in 01, it is difficult to imagine where it will go in the future. For crypto believers, the current Crypto market is like the one in 01.com Bubble destroyed a colossal scene. The token at hand is the next Amazon, or the next eBay?

这是我们都需要持续思考的问题。

That is an issue that we all need to think about on a continuous basis.

Scarlett Wu 的主要关注领域：游戏、NFT、AI 以及其他消费级 Dapp

Scarlet Wu's main areas of concern: games, NFT, AI and other consumer level Dapp

Scarlett Wu 的过往文章（2022）：

Past article by Scarlet Wu (2022):

APE 质押临近、监管施压，关键时点重新审视 Yuga Labs 生态价值

APE pledge approaching, regulatory pressure, critical point revisiting Yuga Labs ecological values

Scarlett Wu 的 Twitter：@scarlettwu_eth

Scallett Wu Twitter:

2022 年最让我印象深刻的是：OP 和 ZK 系对 L2 市场的布局和争夺。

In 2022, I was most impressed: OP and ZK were the layout and competition for the L2 market.

我们先简要复盘一下 L2 市场今年的重要事件，先说 zk 系对于市场的争夺：

Let's do a brief review of L2 market events this year, and say that zk is a competition for the market: .

Polygon 引发的 L2 大战

2022 年 7 月，Polygon 率先宣布实现 ZKEVM 等效性。一个月内，Polygon 代币价格从 0.34 美元飙升至 0.95 美元。Polygon 的暴涨引起了空前的 Layer2 热度。

In July 2022, Polygon was the first to announce the ZKEVM equivalence. In a month, Polygon's counter price jumped from US$0.34 to US$0.95. Polygon's surge caused unprecedented Lyer2 heat.

然而 Polygon 的宣传完全属于炒作，随着 Polygon 在 7 月 21 日公开 ZKEVM 代码，公众发现相关程序几乎无法使用，随后 Polygon 代币迅速下跌。不少熟悉 ZKEVM 的朋友在 7 月 20 日晚成功做空，收益颇丰。

Polygon’s propaganda, however, was totally narrated, and with Polygon’s release of the ZKEVM code on July 21, the public found that the program was virtually unusable, and then the Polygon tokens fell rapidly. A lot of friends familiar with ZKEVM were successful in the evening of July 20 and made good gains.

2022 年 10 月 11 日，Polygon 才将公共测试网上线，实际进展远远慢于宣传。

On October 11th, 2022, Polygon made public testing online, and the real progress was much slower than publicity.

zkSync 的迅速跟进

作为 ZK Rollup 的龙头之一，zkSync 迅速做出了回应。2022 年 7 月，zkSync 正式发布 100 天 ZKEVM 主网倒计时，预计 10 月 28 日正式上线 ZKEVM 主网。2022 年 10 月，ZKEVM 再次吸引了极高的热度，但是 10 月 28 日当天，zkSync 竟然上线了“Baby-Alpha”版主网，本主网无法开放给公众使用，也无法让开发者布署合约，实际最多只能算内测版本。随后，zkSync 发布了若干主网升级计划，预计在 2023 年实现主网上线。

As one of ZK Rollup’s pioneers, ZkSync responded quickly. In July 2022, ZkSync officially released the 100-day ZKEVM main network countdown, which is expected to be officially online on October 28, ZKEVM main network. In October 2022, ZKEVM again attracted a very high degree of heat, but on October 28, ZkSync went online to the “Baby-Alpha” version of the main network, which could not be opened to the public, could not be contracted by developers, and could actually only be in-house versions.

由于 ZKEVM 市场热度极高，这种“内测版主网”的新闻丝毫没有影响投资者的热情。2022 年 11 月 16 日，zkSync 开发公司 Matter Labs 完成 2 亿美元 C 轮融资。

Because of the extremely hot nature of the ZKEVM market, this “inner-based” news has had no impact on investors’ enthusiasm. On November 16, 2022, the zkSync Development Company, Mtter Labs, completed its $200 million C-round financing.

Scroll 的误入

2022 年 7 月 19 日，Scroll 宣布上线 Pre-Alpha 版本测试网，并开放内测申请。因为与 Polygon、zkSync 官宣时间恰好重叠，三大 ZK Rollup 突然同时实现 ZKEVM 等效的段子充斥全网。但 Scroll 的内测版本基本符合宣传预期，当前测试网名额有序开发，生态建设稳步推进，展现了 Scroll 项目相对务实的一面。

On July 19, 2022, Scroll announced the online Pre-Alpha version of the test network and opened up the internal survey application. Because of the overlap with Polygon, zkSync officials, the three ZK Rollup suddenly achieved ZKEVM equivalents at the same time, the entire network was flooded.

同时，Scroll 在去中心化并行证明（俗称挖矿）中的愿景、在数据可用性方案的选择（拒绝 zkPorter 模式等），均给人 Web3-native 的感受。

At the same time, the vision of Scroll in decentralizing parallel certificates (commonly known as mining), and the choice of data availability options (rejection of zkPorter models, etc.) all give a sense of Web3-native.

再来看 OP 系的动作：

Read OP system actions:

Optimism 的宏愿

在 2022 年 10 月，zkSync“主网上线”引发 ZKEVM 风潮时，Optimsim 不甘示弱，迅速宣布了愿景宏大的 OP Stack。

In October 2022, when ZKEVM was triggered by zkSync's main web line, Optimsim quickly announced an ambitious vision OP Stack.

在 Optimism 的设想中，继承以太坊安全性的 Optimism 可以作为大批应用链的底层，各种应用链依托 Optimism 进行全方位的跨链互操作性，这也被称为以太坊上的 Cosmos。

In Optimism's idea, succession to the Tails' safety Optimism can be the bottom of a large application chain that relies on Optimism for full-scale cross-chain interoperability, also known as Cosmos on the Tails.

但是由于 Optimism 从 2021 年 11 月升级以来，长期没有正常运转欺诈证明，Optimism 的安全性也受到一定的质疑。

However, the safety of Optimism has also been questioned due to the prolonged absence of proof of normal operating fraud since its upgrade in November 2021.

Arbitrum 的反击：

2022 年 7 月，Arbitrum 团队 CEO 喊话 Polygon ZKEVM，认为后者几乎无法使用。

In July 2022, the Arbitrum team CEO shouted Polygon ZKEVM, arguing that the latter could hardly be used.

2022 年 10 月，Arbitrum CEO 再次表态，现在鼓吹 ZKEVM 是在损害整个社区。

In October 2022, Arbitrum CEO again stated that now advocating ZKEVM is damaging the community as a whole.

之所关注 L2，理由很多：

There are many reasons for concern about L2:

Layer2 的长期发展空间巨大：

Long-term development space for Layer2:

一方面，以太坊处理能力极为有限，需要大量 Layer2 执行具体交易来实现扩容，从而大规模落地现实世界。另一方面，随着链上应用场景的快速增加，链上应用对于执行层的需求也更为多样化，大量各具特色的 Layer2 通过以太坊主链进行交互，是区块链的未来趋势。

On the one hand, the very limited capacity to handle it requires that a large number of Layer2 transactions be carried out in order to expand its reach and thus reach the real world on a large scale. On the other hand, with the rapid increase in the application of the chain, the demand for the enforcement layer for the application of the chain has become more diverse, and a large number of different Layer2 features, interacting with the main chain, are the future trends of the chain.

Layer2 在未来 1-2 年潜在投资机会较多：

Layer2 More potential investment opportunities in the next 1-2 years:

比如 Layer2 项目的发币机会。当前 OP 系与 ZK 系的主流玩家，除 Polygon 相对特殊早已发币、Optimism 于今年 6 月发币外，其余主流项目大致会在未来 1-2 年发币:

The current OP is the mainstream player in the ZK system, except for Polygon, where Optimism issued the currency in June of this year, where the remaining mainstream projects are expected to do so in the next 1-2 years:

Starkware

2022 年 7 月，Starkware 正式宣布发行代币 Starknet，并宣布 Starknet 代币将成为 gas fee 支付代币。11 月 16 日，代币合约正式布署在以太坊主网上，但暂时没有开放交易与使用。

In July 2022, Starkware officially announced that it would issue a token, Starknet, and that it would be used as a gas feed for payment. On November 16, the tender contract was officially set up on the Ether capital network, but for the time being it was not open for trade and use.

zkSync

2022 年 11 月，项目方明确发币后将分配 2/3 代币给社区（注：Starknet 为 1/2 分配至社区）。考虑到 zkPorter 等项目必须通过代币质押来保证安全性、zkSync 在未来两年基本足以主网上线来看，zkSync 代币基本在未来 2 年内会上线。

In November 2022, the project party will distribute two thirds of the money to the community when it is clear that it will be issued. Considering that items such as zkPorter must be guaranteed security through a money pledge, zkSync will be able to see it on the main web line in the next two years, zkSync will be on the line in the next two years.

Scroll

Scroll 的特色在于零知识证明挖矿，由于当前 ZK Rollup 是打包（Sequecer）- 证明（Prover）的运转模式，且零知识证明生成远远慢于交易打包，因此 Scroll 构思了完整的去中心化并行证明模式，预计将 Scroll 代币作为挖矿奖励，鼓励矿工用更优质的硬件参与证明生成。

Scroll is characterized by zero-knowledge proof of mining, and, since ZK Rollup is currently the mode of operation of Sequencer-Prover, and no-knowledge proof is generated much slower than of a transaction, Scroll has conceived a complete decentralized parallel demonstration model, which is expected to be used as an incentive for mining, encouraging miners to participate in the production of better hardware.

Scroll 主网同样预计未来 2 年可以上线，且由于挖矿机制，主网上线时必然需要 Scroll 代币，而且 Scroll 代币是具有一定价值捕获能力的。

The Scroll main network also expects to be online in the next two years, and because of the mining mechanism, the main web line will necessarily require Scroll tokens, which have a certain value capture capability.

我最关注的未来投资机会也在于 ZK 赛道。

The most important investment opportunity for me in the future is the ZK track.

理论最优的 ZK Rollup

The best ZK Rollup

由于以太坊每秒只能处理约 15 笔交易，远远低于现实需求。因此扩容就成为了区块链落地的必经之路以太坊链下扩容的基本逻辑在于让 Layer2 处理多笔交易，然后交给以太坊主链验证存档。过往的链下扩容方案基本无法让交易被压缩后被以太坊主链验证，而零知识证明可以将数十笔交易压缩为只有原先一笔交易大小的、可以验证的证明，从而让区块链性能大幅提升。因此，ZK Rollup 也就成为了理论上最佳以太坊的扩容方案。

The basic logic behind building up is to allow Layer2 to handle multiple transactions and then send them to Ether's main chain to verify the archives. The build-up scheme under the past chain can hardly be validated by a chain that has been compressed and with zero knowledge that can reduce dozens of transactions to a proven proof of the size of the original transaction, thus enabling the chain to be significantly enhanced.

为什么是“长期看好 ZK”？

Why is "long-term ZK"?

首先，针对同一道数学题，计算与证明的流程几乎是完全逆向的，这意味着证明将是对计算的完全重构。其次，对于以太坊来说，早期很多计算处理过程对于零知识证明都非常不友好，导致 ZK Rollup 复刻以太坊虚拟机（EVM）之路还很遥远。

First, with regard to the same mathematical question, the process of calculation and certification is almost completely inverse, which means that the proof will be a complete re-engineering of the calculation. Second, many of the early computational processing processes are very unfriendly for the proof of zero knowledge, leading to the long way forward for ZK Rollup and the EVM.

其他的思考：

Other reflections:

关于 Layer2：

About Layer 2:

总体上，“短期看 OP，长期看 ZK”的观念已经深入人心。ZK Rollup 在最近一年已经取得了一定的进展，并且开始有了引领“Layer2 Summer”之势，ZK Rollup 内部在上线时间的竞争已经几乎白热化，而 OP 系（特别是 Arbitrum）则希望 ZK Rollup 的落地更晚一些，从而获取更多的发展空间。

In general, the notion of “the short-term view of OP, the long-term view of ZK” has taken root. ZK Rollup has made some progress in the last year, and has begun to lead the “Layer2 Summer” movement, and the competition within ZK Rollup for online time has become almost hot, while the OP system (especially Arbitrum) wants ZK Rollup to be in place later so as to gain more development space.

未来是多链的，而且很可能是以太坊为共享安全层的 Cross-Rollup 交互，因此各具特色的 ZK Rollup 都有较多发展机遇。

The future is multi-chained, and it is likely that cross-Cross-Rollup, which shares the security layer in the Taiku, has more opportunities for development for each of the distinctive ZK Rollup.

Layer2 投资机会：

Layer2 Investment Opportunities:

ZK 挖矿赛道的机遇

由于 ZK Rollup 证明远远慢于交易打包，且越兼容以太坊则证明越慢，那么未来通过硬件提升证明速度将是长期发展方向。考虑到 Scroll 等已经宣布零知识证明挖矿的龙头项目，原先矿业的布局机会同样突出。

Since ZK Rollup has proven to be much slower than trading to pack, and the more compatible the Ethernos have proved to be, the longer the pace of proof through hardware upgrades will be in the long run. Given that zero knowledge has been announced, such as Scroll, to prove the development of mining taps, the opportunities for the original layout of mining have also been highlighted.

ZK 代币投资的机遇

ZK Rollup 收支的基本型是向用户收取 gas fee，用于项目运营成本、给 Layer1 的证明费与给 Layer1 的发布费。

The basic pattern of ZK Rollup income and expenditure is the collection of gas feed from users for project operating costs, certification fees for Layer 1 and publication fees for Layer 1.

以编号 90415 的 zkSync 区块为例，zkSync 总计向用户收取 gas fee9.92 美元，总计向以太坊支出 19.91 美元证明费与 42.20 美元发布费，此时的 zkSync 显然处于严重的收支不平衡。这种不平衡往往需要通过发行代币的模式润滑整个商业模型。

In the case of zkSync block number 90415, zkSync collects a total of US$ 9.92 from users and a total of US$ 19.91 from the Taiyo certification fee and US$ 42.20 from the issuing fee, at which time zkSync is clearly in a severe imbalance of balance of payments. This imbalance often requires the lubricating of the entire business model through the issuance of tokens.

在不发币的时代，zkSync 往往需要付出 50 美元现金补贴一个区块的生产，但是在发币的基本模型中，项目方可以选择为矿工支付 zkSync 代币进行补贴，随着 zkSync 成本逐渐下降、实现收支平衡并获得更多市场份额，zkSync 代币持有者也有望共享 zkSync 生态发展的红利。这是一种类似传统公司期权激励的商业模式。

In an era of currency non-payment, zkSync often needed to pay $50 in cash to subsidize the production of a block, but in the basic model of currency issuance, the project party could choose to subsidize the miners with zkSync, and as the cost of zkSync gradually fell, balance of payments and access to more market shares, zkSync currency holders were also expected to share the dividends of zkSync ecological development. This is a business model similar to traditional company options.

比特币正是通过这样的经济模型，颠覆性地实现了无本金、无融资的商业发展。当前 IPFS 存储成本远高于存储中心，但是因为 Filecoin 代币补贴，去中心化存储依然获得了不错的发展。

It is through this economic model that Bitcoin is a subversive business development with no capital and no financing. Currently, IPFS storage costs are much higher than storage centres, but decentralized storage is still well developed because of the Filecoin token subsidy.

总体上，代币是一种金融创新工具，让暂时还不够成熟、成本较高的项目提前走到普通公众面前。

In general, the currency is a financial innovation instrument that allows projects that are temporarily premature and costly to reach the general public ahead of schedule.

因此 ZK Rollup 项目方非常有意愿通过代币工具实现商业模型的润滑，这些代币将为我们带来较多投资机会。

Therefore, the ZK Rollup project has a strong willingness to lubricate business models through token instruments, which will provide us with more investment opportunities.

snapp_ye 的主要关注领域：公链、Layer2、零知识证明

snapp_ye main areas of concern: public chains, Layer2, zero knowledge

snapp_ye 的过往文章（2022）：

snapp_ye (2022):

Aptos、Solana 和新公链周期律

重新梳理 Polygon：以太坊扩容瑞士军刀的现状、未来增长点和估值分析

snapp_ye 的 Twitter：@snapp_yebit

snapp_ye Twitter:

Mint Ventures 的研究员和投资经理们分享了自己对于 Web3 今年的回顾和展望，我作为今年 5 月才从 Web2 大厂转行进入 Web3 投资的萌新，更想结合自身经历，从“跨行成长”的角度跟大家分享我的三点思考。

Mint Ventures' researchers and investment managers shared their own review and vision of Web3 for this year, and as I moved from Web2 to Web3 in May of this year, I wanted to share three points of my thinking from the point of view of cross-line growth.

第一目前是否是加入 Web3 的好时机？

互联网经过这二十多年的飞速发展，已经达到了瓶颈。

After more than two decades of rapid growth, the Internet has reached bottlenecks.

我在今年年初的时候，也在不断反问自己，什么行业还有至少十年上升期，下一代互联网机会在哪里。我跟周边的好多朋友反复讨论后，找到的答案是 Web3。

At the beginning of this year, I also kept asking myself, what industries have at least a decade to go up and where the next generation of Internet opportunities are. The answer I've been talking to a lot of friends around is Web3.

那么 Web3 的现状究竟如何呢？我想从产品经理（我在互联网的职业背景）常说的用户需求角度，讲一件事，今年 11 月份网易和暴雪的分手。这次游戏的停服事件，又一次把游戏玩家对于“账号 / 装备所有权”的诉求推到大众面前。

So, what's the status of Web3? I want to say one thing from the perspective of what product managers often say about user needs, that the Internet broke up with the snow this November. The stoppage of the game, again, puts the game player's claim to account/ equipment ownership in front of the public.

有需求的地方就有机会，Web3 项目发展和用户需求是相互促进的。不论是 Defi 对传统金融的改进，还是 NFT 这类新价值媒介给市场营销创造的新玩法，抑或是到现在还在商业模式摸索中的 Gamefi，Socialfi。因为用户需求的日益成熟和增长，web3 原住民快速增长，现在的 Web3 正在复刻最初的互联网早期黄金年代。

Where there is demand, Web3 project development and user demand are mutually reinforcing. Whether Defi’s improvements to traditional finance, or new marketing games such as NFT, or, to date, Gamefi, Socialfi, are still in the business model. Because users’ demand is growing and growing, web3 First Nations are growing rapidly, and now Web3 is reminiscent of the early prime years of the Internet.

另外，尽管 Luna 和 FTX 的暴雷，带来了更多政府对 Web3 的监管行动和负面声音，但明显的转变是，这几年多国政策开始从抵制变成了监管和共处。

Moreover, while the thunderstorms of Luna and FTX have led to more government regulatory action and negative voices on Web3, there has been a marked shift in multi-country policies over the years from resistance to regulation and coexistence.

就拿香港来说，10 月底 Web3 大会上，香港财政司正式发布《有关香港虚拟资产发展的政策宣言》。香港未来会加快完善虚拟资产服务提供者发牌制度，对于零售投资者可买卖虚拟资产的适当程度也会进行公共咨询，对香港引入虚拟资产交易所买卖基金（ETF）也持开放态度。国内各大城市也在对元宇宙，数字藏品这些 Web3 相关产业进行探索尝试。

In the case of Hong Kong, at the end of October, the Hong Kong Department of Finance officially issued a Policy Declaration on the Development of Virtual Assets in Hong Kong. Hong Kong will speed up the process of improving the licensing system for virtual asset service providers, as well as public consultation on the appropriate extent to which retail investors can buy and sell virtual assets, and will be open to the introduction of the Virtual Asset Exchange Trading Fund (ETF).

所以从个人职业的突破，到用户需求的解决，再到政策方向的转变，以我的个人体感来说，现在都是加入 Web3 的好时机。在萧瑟的熊市安心播种，在蓬勃的牛市中才能收获丰硕的果实。

So it's a good time to join the Web3 from a breakthrough in personal careers to a resolution of user needs to a change in policy direction, in my personal senses. Seeding in Shawthau's Bear City is a good time to reap the fruits of a booming cattle market.

第二怎么去找到 Web3 里面的机会？

How do you find the second chance in Web3?

其实 Web3 的机会基本是 Web2 的映射，你可以选择做投资也可以做项目，可以自我创业亦可加入团队，具体职责上，可以担任开发或社区运营；方向尝试上，可以选择 Gamefi，亦可 NFT 赛道等。你需要做的就是，结合你自己的背景，兴趣，能力，目的去做最适合你的选择。

In fact, Web3 opportunities are basically a map of Web2 and you can choose to invest or do projects, start your own business or join a team, with specific responsibilities, for development or community operations; you can choose the Gamefi or the NFT track, and so on. What you need to do is do what is best for you, with your own background, interests, abilities, etc.

或许很多朋友对于找什么样的机会已经心里有数，但是却不知道如何找到，我给的建议就是“加强主动”。

Perhaps many friends already know what the opportunities are, but they don't know how to find them. My advice is to “strengthen the initiative”.

不同于 Web2，作为大厂员工被动的等猎头打电话跳槽，在萌芽发展中的 Web3，一切都需要你发挥主观能动性。

Unlike Web2, as a passive waiter for large factory employees, web3, in the bud, everything needs to be subjective.

想找心仪的项目团队加入，自己去看看优质项目的官网，去写邮件主动求职。想认识某个大牛，自己主动加他的推特，写自己的认知和诉求。我加入 Mint Ventures，也是自己主动写邮件拿到的机会。

If you want to join the project team, go see the network of high-quality projects, write your mail and ask for your job. If you want to meet a bull, write his own tweet, write your own thoughts and claims. I join Mint Ventures, and it's also my chance to write your own email.

当然所有的主动结识，你都需要把你自己的优点、认知和能创造的价值也同时展现给对方。

Of course, all the initiatives that you have come to know, you need to show each other your own virtues, your knowledge and the value that you can create at the same time.

第三作为 Web3 新人，如何自我提升？

as a newcomer to the Web3 how do you promote yourself?

不论你选择什么方向，不论你之前什么背景，进入 Web3 并且想终有所获的核心是，“热爱且坚持”。只要真正做到这两点，学习成长才有持续的内在驱动力，相信半年时间，你足以成为某个赛道 / 领域的资深人士。

Whatever direction you choose, whatever background you have before, enter the Web3 and think there's finally something at the heart of "love and insist." If you do both, learning can only be driven in a sustained way, believing that in six months you will be a senior figure in a certain track/field.

以我自己为例，我产后仅仅一个月就跨城市去工作，最初的几个月，每天基本除了睡觉时间，都在不断阅读并动手实操 Web3 的各种项目。我的个人体会是，只要你看过 / 实操过头部 100 个项目的白皮书，使用过它们的产品，那么你对 Web3 的了解认知可以超过圈内 90% 的人。

For my own example, I went out of the city just a month after I was born, and for the first few months, I was reading and actually working on Web3 projects, mostly in bed. My personal experience is that as long as you've seen the white papers of / actually fucked 100 projects and used their products, your knowledge of Web3 can exceed 90 percent of the people in the circle.

另外如果可以，也建议你不断的在社交平台进行输出，以输出反逼输入。为了让自己不会懈怠下去，在入行几个月后，我也与朋友写了一个公众号“Web3 100days”，记录我们对于 Web3 从 0 开始的认知分析。

Also, if you can, you are advised to continue to export on social platforms to export counter-inputs. In order to keep yourself in check, a few months after entering, I wrote a public number, Web3 100days, documenting our cognitive analysis of Web3 from 0.

当然除了这些外，如果你能找到一个 Web3 的好平台，有一群志同道合的朋友，这对你的成长和发展更是如虎添翼。就我自身而言，Mint Ventures 对我的成长帮助确实非常大。最后，祝大家都可以在 Web3 领域，海阔凭鱼跃，天高任鸟飞。

In addition to that, of course, if you can find a good platform for Web3 with a group of like-minded friends, it'll make you grow and develop. For me, Mint Ventures really helps me grow. And finally, I wish you all the best in the area of Web3.

菲菲的主要关注领域：Defi，Socialfi，更偏向二级市场

Fifi's main areas of concern: Defi, Socialfi, more in favour of secondary markets

菲菲的公众号：Web3 100days

Phiffi: Web3 100days

过去一年中令我印象深刻的事件有 Luna 帝国的覆灭、StepN 产品的出圈和大量传统互联网人才进军 Web3。

I was impressed over the past year by the fall of the Luna Empire, the ring of StepN products and the march of a large number of traditional Internet talent on Web3.

Luna 帝国覆灭给行业带来巨大的负面影响，至今加密货币世界仍旧在余震当中。我虽然不是 Luna 崩盘事件的重大损失者或受益者，但是这件事让我看到了加密货币行业的魔力和魅力，也让我对行业的局限性有了更深刻的理解和认知。与许多投资者相反，Luna 的崩盘让我坚定了对行业的信心。

The collapse of the ‘strong’ Luna Empire has had a huge negative impact on the industry, and the world of encrypted currencies is still in the aftermath of the aftershocks. While I am not a major loss or beneficiary of the Luna crash, it has shown me the magic and charisma of the crypto-currency industry, as well as a deeper understanding and appreciation of its limitations.

加密货币世界是潘多拉的盒子。“These violent delights have violent ends.” 是刚接触加密货币时，友人赠我的忠告。事件发生的那几天，我一直跟踪着 Luna 事件的市场变化和进展，听到不同 Twitter Space 和各种播客对事件影响的分析，眼睁睁看着 Luna 这个被众多 KOL 和博主供在神坛的加密货币以及 Terra 整体生态在几天之内从天堂到地狱的巨变。这样的事件中不免听到有“坏消息”从远方传来。此后的一长段时间，余震波及包括 Three Arrows Capital 在内的多个机构，从赫赫有名的投资机构，到身边的普通个人投资者，多少都受到了事件的负面影响。崩盘事件发生之迅猛、影响之剧烈，令我印象深刻。友人的赠言一语成谶。牛市赚得盆满钵满的人，熊市到来时都在裸泳。

In the days since the incident, I have been following market changes and developments in the Luna incident, hearing different analyses of the impact of events by Twitter Space and various broadcasters, watching Luna, an encrypted currency supplied by KOL and its masters to the altar and by Terra's overall ecology from heaven to hell within a few days. The news of such events has come from far.

加密货币世界与现实世界的割裂是巨大的，尤其是在中国大陆。在我一边为加密世界”雷曼“事件忧心和惋惜的时候，现实生活中隔离在上海家里，每天唯一的“自由”时间便是下楼和邻里邻居一起排队做核酸。看着现实世界中的鸟语花香和欢声笑语，仿佛什么事也没有发生。在大陆，Web3 的普及程度还很低，但在香港、新加坡、美国、欧洲等地方，Web3、NFT 和加密货币已然成为大众话题。加密货币对每个人生活、工作的渗透和冲击正在全球慢慢发生，无疑未来我们将看到更多的用户和资本进入行业。

At a time of concern and regret about the encrypt world Lehman, on my side, the only “free” time in real life is being isolated from our homes in Shanghai, and the only time of day is when they come downstairs and their neighbors line up for nucleic acid. Looking at the real world, it seems like nothing has happened.

2022 年也是传统互联网人才大举进入 Web3 的一年。尽管从 GoKuStats 数据来看，2022 年周活跃开发者人数在熊市影响下下降不少，但在开发量最集中的以太坊上，开发者迁移的趋势依旧明显。根据 Alchemy2022 年 11 月发布的 2022Q3 以太坊上的 Web3 开发者报告，在以太坊上两个重要 Web3 library Ethers.js 和 Web3.js.的周下载量达到了 150 多万次，是 2018 年的 10 倍多。2022 年 9 月的智能合约部署量达到 17,376 个，为有史以来最高值。可见，尽管时值熊市，开发者仍在积极开发部署。在工作中也接触到了越来越多来自传统互联网大厂的开发者和产品经理，加入 Web3 的创业行列。

The year 2022 was also a year in which traditional Internet talent entered Web3. While the number of weekly active developers fell considerably in 2022, according to GokuStats, under the influence of the Bear City, the trend towards the migration of developers was still clear in the most developed neighbourhood. According to the 2022 Alchemy November 2022, the 2022Q3 Web3 developers in Etheria reported that, despite the current situation in Bear City, developers are actively developing and deploying in their work, more than 1.5 million weekly downloads, 10 times more than in 2018.

图片来源：GoKuStats（2022 年 12 月 7 日）

Image by Go KuStats (7 December 2022)

图片来源：Web3 Developer Report (Q3 2022) by Alchemy

Source:

图片来源：Messari

Image by Messari.

StepN 产品的出圈也是今年的热点事件。上半年最火的项目 StepN 将大量对加密货币和 Web3 一无所知的人群带进了这个世界，尽管它在团队管理、监管政策、代币模型方面，StepN 饱受争议。我对这个事件的反思出是，圈内人都在期待更多参与者的加入，而若没有一个用户体验极佳或者利益驱动的产品作为窗口，圈外人的学习成本巨大，从私钥到资产安全，从加密货币世界各种缩写到深奥的代币模型，横亘在二者之间的还有监管政策的不确定性，和圈内频出的丑闻事件造成大众的信心缺失。话虽如此，我对加密货币市场的扩张、与监管的调和、技术的进步和更强的安全性，怀抱着十分的期待。

My reflection on the story is that no user has experienced excellent or benefit-driven products as a window, that learning costs for outsiders are enormous, from private keys to asset security, from encoded currency worlds to deep currency models, and that there is uncertainty about regulatory policy between them, as well as a lack of public confidence due to frequent scandals. Having said this, I have great expectations about the expansion of the crypto-currency market, the tone of regulation, advances in technology, and greater security.

在加密货币领域，我未来比较关注的趋势和赛道是：

In the area of cryptographic currency, the trends and paths that I will focus on in the future are:

先说围绕资产安全的基础设施。

begins with infrastructure around asset security.

熊市盗贼多，2022 年我们看到了太多黑客攻击事件，随着越来越多传统资本利益纽带延伸到加密货币领域，监管审查程度不断戒严，国家级别对链上资产的审查、对 Web3 项目的监管升级，为将看来更多资金和用户参与加密货币活动做准备。同时 2022 年暴露了多个中心化交易所违规挪用用户资金事件，中心化的托管机制又一次失去了 Web3 用户的信任。对于习惯了中心化信任机制模式的用户和资金，保护资产安全会是参与”去中心化社会“活动时的首要要务，于加密货币原生资本、新进资本而言都一样。但由于去中心化和”弱“监管的本质，围绕资产安全保护的各种基础设施将会是加密货币行业里那个被持续关注的“刚需”。

With a growing number of traditional capital interests extending to the area of crypto-currency, regulatory scrutiny has been tightened, State-level scrutiny of assets in the chain has been upgraded, and regulation of the Web3 project has been upgraded to prepare for the apparent involvement of more funds and users in encrypted currency activities. Meanwhile, in 2022, the centralized hosting mechanism lost the trust of the users of Web3.

在这个领域里，钱包作为资产重要聚集地和用户流量入口，具有”看门人“的作用。钱包种类多种多样，从比特币诞生至今，钱包的意义也从单纯的资产管理、转账记账，延伸到了资产管理、链上应用、社交身份象征等。按设备来分，有硬件钱包和软件钱包，按托管方式来分，有自托管、共同托管（多重签名）和中心化第三方托管，按签名算法分，有单个签名、多重签名、单个私钥 MPC 切分等方式。但目前来看，各种 web3 钱包产品需要在安全性、功能性、用户体验、Gas Fee 和可恢复性等方面进行取舍。2022 年，安全事件频发和用户体验要求提升的双重作用下，市场中涌现出了较多 MPC 钱包、智能合约钱包解决方案，力图打造无私钥、高安全的钱包产品，但仍在产品迭代、不断完善的过程中。

In this area, wallets play the role of "gatekeepers" as an important confluence of assets and as an entry to user flows. Wallet types are diverse, from the birth of Bitcoin to the present, and their significance extends from simple asset management, transfer bookkeeping, to asset management, chain applications, social identity symbols, etc. By equipment, there are hardware wallets and software wallets, by hosting, self-hosting, co-hosting (multi-signature) and centralized third-party hostings, by signature algorithms, individual signatures, multiple signatures, and individual private-key MPC cut-offs. But, at present, various web3 wallet products need to be distilled in terms of security, functionality, user experience, Gas Fee, and resilience.

根据 Grand View Research 报告，2021 年全球加密钱包市场规模有 69.7 亿美金，到 2030 年预计将达到 482.7 亿美元。在巨量增长的过程中，Web3 钱包发展趋势必然朝着更加安全、用户体验更加友好的方向发展，迭代出更佳的产品。

According to Grand View Research, the global market for encryption wallets in 2021 was US$ 69.70 billion, and is expected to reach US$ 48,277 billion by 2030. In the process of massive growth, Web3 wallets are bound to move towards safer, more user-friendly, and better products.

图片来源：R3PO 文章《FTX 陨落之后，钱包能守护住加密世界的去中心化底线吗">2022 年最成功的 web3 项目》，他提到 Reddit NFT 头像使用人数刚发行不久已经是 OpenSea 人数的两倍，Axie Infinity 用户的 10 倍，对于这种量级的用户教育本应耗费巨大成本，但在 Reddit 平台上轻而易举地实现了，且创作活跃度高。

事实证明，我们在等待 Web3 现象级产品出现的时候，大批 web2 用户也在不断接受全世界 Web3 风潮给他们生活中带来的点点滴滴的变化。而 NFT 连接的小图片的强出圈性就是他独到的利器，围绕 NFT 的效用（Utility）逐渐被解锁和挖掘后，会使得连接 web3 世界的桥梁更加宽阔。

It turns out that while we wait for the Web3 phenomenon-level products to emerge, a large number of web2 users are also receiving a little change in their lives as a result of the world's web3 tides. and the strong circle of NFT-connected small images is his unique sharp object, which, with the gradual unlocking and digging around the utility of NFT, will make the bridges connecting the web3 wider.

自去年下半年，NFT Boom 继 DeFi Summer 后成为业内又一大新叙事，对 NFT-Fi 的期待也是经常成为讨论热点。然而，这个“温点”尚未真正热起来。在思考背后的原因的同时，我也在提醒自己在推演上要警惕路径依赖，或许 NFT-Fi Summer 并不会像 DeFi Summer 一样为加密货币行业带来用户、资金的巨额增量，或许 NFT-Fi 最后在万众期待下被新的叙事代替。NFT 与 FT 本质上存在较多差异，DeFi 和 NFT-Fi 很难强行类比。中性的说法是，NFT 行业兴衰直接决定了 NFT-Fi 的存亡，悲观的说法是，若 NFT 行业支柱倒塌，NFT-Fi 市场容量天花板的缺陷会更加明显。

Since the second half of last year, NFT Boom has become a major new narrative in the industry, and the expectation of NFT-Fi has often become a hot spot for discussion. However, this “hot spot” is not yet really hot. While thinking about the reasons behind it, I am also reminding myself of the need to be wary of path dependence. Perhaps NFT-Fi Summer does not bring about a huge increase in users and funds for the crypto-currency industry, as DeFi Summer did, and perhaps NFT-Fi was eventually replaced by new narratives in anticipation. There are more differences between the NFT and the FT in nature, and it is difficult for DeFi and NFT-Fi to impose comparisons. In neutral terms, NFT’s booms directly determine the survival of the NFT-Fi industry, and it is sad to say that if the NFT pillars collapse, NFT-Fi’s market capacity ceiling defects would be even more pronounced.

从当前市值和交易量来看，所有公链中，NFT 仍旧集中在以太坊上的蓝筹 PFP，即便有类似 Reddit 的 Avatar NFT 大举带入 web2 用户、有类似 Art Gobblers 的“艺术 +Tokenomics”社会试验、有大大小小 GameFi 资产用 NFT 形式发行和交易、有体育粉丝狂热的球员 NFT 卡，蓝筹 PFP NFT 仍旧占据了 NFT 交易量榜单。目前，运营较为成熟的 NFT-Fi 有交易市场赛道（含聚合器）、借贷赛道，其余碎片化协议、租赁协议等都仅是少数用户使用，没有成为主流 NFT 玩家使用的协议或产品，NFT 期货协议 NFTPerp 也是近期才上线。交易市场仍旧被 OpenSea、X2Y2、LooksRare、MagicEden 等占领，借贷赛道龙头有 NFTfi、BendDAO 等。从主流 NFT-Fi 协议生态来看，金融化的产品仍旧围绕现有的蓝筹 PFP 资产搭建，集中性较高带来的风险是，蓝筹 PFP 的崩坏会立刻影响下游 NFT-Fi 协议的生存。

In terms of the current market value and volume of transactions, NFT is still concentrated in the NFT, even with the Avatar NFT, similar to Reddit, which carries on the list of NFT transactions. Currently, the more mature NFT-Fi has a trading market track (including a polymer), a lending track similar to Art Gobblers, and the remaining fragmentation agreements, leasing agreements, etc., are used only by a small number of users, with no agreement or product to be used by mainstream NFT players, NFT-based players, and NFT-based players still hold on the NFT transaction list.

今年我们也看到了比较多的 NFT-Fi 机枪池、中心化和去中心化的做市场服务的创业项目。它们是行业发展到一定阶段的产物，但由于对标的市场集中度高，蓝筹 PFP 市场已经开始存量竞争，市场容量天花板使其未来业务发展受限。未来 NFT 市场格局如何我们很难预测，但可以明确的是在没有看到创新的品种或像蓝筹 PFP 一样强共识的 NFT 资产出现的情况下，大量 NFT 都是昙花一现，NFT-Fi 的作用也将会只是寥寥。

This year, we have also seen more NFT-Fi machine-gun pools, centralized and decentralized business start-ups for market services. They are the product of the industry’s development to a certain stage, but given the high concentration of the target markets and the start of stock competition in the Blue Funded PFP market, the market-capacity ceiling will limit its future business development. It is difficult to predict the future of the NFT market, but it is clear that in the absence of innovative varieties or the emergence of NFT assets that are as strong as the Blue Fund, a large number of NFTs will be wasted, and the role of NFT-Fi will be minimal.

做投资，远见很重要。虽然在 NFT-Fi 领域，我们仍然像是在雾里看花，前方的路并不明朗，但可以肯定的是 NFT 本身承载了更多的非同质化的内容价值，比 FT 具备更强的文化和艺术属性，也更能够建立用户与冰冷晦涩的区块链代码世界之间的连结，用户在潜移默化中付出了更多的“情感成本”，也比因此比 FT 有更强的粘性和更丰富的生命力。总体而言，我依旧期待 NFT 市场未来给我们带来更多的惊喜。

It's important to invest. In the NFT-Fi field, we still look at flowers in the fog, and the way ahead is unclear, but what is certain is that NFT itself carries more of the value of non-homogenous content than the FT itself, has stronger cultural and artistic attributes and is better able to build links between users and the ice-cold chain code world, with users paying more of the “emotional costs” in latent migration, and more of its strength than FT. Overall, I still expect more surprises from the future of the NFT market.

Jessica Shen 的主要关注领域：NFT-Fi、DAO 工具、DID 等

Jessica Shen's main areas of concern: NFT-Fi, DAO tools, DD, etc.

Jessica Shen 的过往文章（2022）：

Past article by Jessica Shen (2022):

《BAYC 降价潮重现：全面分析 NFT 借贷龙头 BendDAO 的“危”与“机”》

《一览 2022 年 NFT 赛道发展》

Jessica Shen 的 Twitter：@Jessicashen6699

Jessica Shen Twitter: <

2022 年令我印象最深刻的是“崩溃”。

I was most impressed in 2022 by the “break”.

崩溃贯穿了 2022 年整年，从 Luna 开始，3AC、Celsius、Voyager、Blockfi、FTX 如同多米诺骨牌一般倒下，而近期 Grayscale 表示因为安全原因而不提供比特币储备证明，则更像是来自周期的一种呼应：一切因他而始，是否也会因他而终？曾经甚嚣尘上的“华尔街机构进场带来 Crypto 永恒牛市”的叙事，随着机构们被披露的越来越多的匪夷所思的业余操作，也不再有人提起。

The collapse ran through the year 2022, starting with Luna, where 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, Blockfi, FTX fell like Domino domino, and more recently, Grayscale, who said that it was not possible to provide proof of bitcoin reserves for security reasons, was more like a response from the cycle: would it end with him?