渣打银行发布《比特币——通往10万美元之路》研报，预测到2024年底，比特币的价格可能达到10万美元，并表示所谓的“加密货币寒冬”已经结束。
The Chartered Bank published a study entitled Bitcoin — The Way to $100,000, predicting that by the end of 2024 the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000, and stated that the so-called “encrypted currency winter” had ended.
该行数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick指出，比特币可能会从最近的市场发展中获益。传统银行业承压非常有利于比特币的表现，并验证其作为去中心化、无需信任和稀缺数字资产的最初前提。
According to Geoff Kendrick, the director of digital asset research at the bank, Bitcoin may have benefited from recent market developments. Traditional banking practices have been very beneficial to Bitcoin performance and have proven to be an initial prerequisite for decentralized, untrustworthy and scarce digital assets.
叠加美联储结束加息周期后风险资产的企稳，以及加密货币挖矿盈利能力的提高（比特币减半），都令比特币通往10万美元关口的道路正变得愈发清晰。
The consolidation of the venture capital stability of the Fed after the end of the interest-added cycle and the increase in the profitability of encrypt currency mining (the halving of bitcoins) have made the path to the 100,000 dollar threshold even clearer.
在比特币过去的反弹中，市场对其价格走势进行预测已经司空见惯。由于比特币等加密资产已经高度金融化，因此价格大概率摆脱不了周期性规律。而根据以往经验，在该阶段比特币带动整个加密市场出现一波小估值修复并不意外。
Given the high level of financialization of encrypted assets, such as bitcoins, prices are likely to not escape cyclical patterns. Based on past experience, it is not surprising at this stage that bitcoins led to a wave of small valuation repairs throughout the encoded market.
“10万美元的比特币”对于币圈中人来说，更像是一种信念，而不是某个特定的目标价。上个月在巴黎举行的一场行业峰会中，美国加密货币交易所Gemini的首席战略官Marshall Beard也喊出10万美元的目标价，稳定币发行商Tether也预测比特币能“突破新高”。
The “$100,000 bitcoin” is more a belief than a specific target price for people in the currency circle. Last month in Paris, Marshall Beard, chief strategy officer of the US crypto-currency exchange Gemini, called for a target price of $100,000, and Tether, a stable currency issuer, predicted that Bitcoin could “break the new heights.”
行情数据显示，比特币价格在10个月以来首次超过3万美元，较年初涨幅超过83%。根据Trading View的数据，比特币的主导地位（市值）目前约为47%。受益于作为“避风港”的地位，渣打银行预计比特币的主导地位将继续上升，回升至50-60%的范围。
According to Trading View, Bitcoin’s dominant position (market value) is now about 47%. Benefiting from its status as a “safe haven,” the Chartered Bank expects that Bitcoin’s dominant position will continue to rise to 50-60%.
不过有分析师表示，比特币的主导地位可能已达到顶峰，短期内仍难以突破。加密服务提供商Matrixport的研究和战略主管Markus Thielen表示，“比特币的主导地位似乎正在达到与2022年相似的水平——占加密货币总市值的45-48%。比特币要继续跑赢生态系统的其他部分，就意味着只有比特币很重要，考虑到部署在其他链上的智能合约和市场资金偏好，这似乎不太可能”。
According to analysts, however, Bitcoin’s dominance may have peaked and remains difficult to break in the short term. Markus Thielen, research and strategy manager for encryption service provider Matirxport, stated that “bitcoin’s dominance appears to be reaching a level similar to that of 2022 – 45-48% of the total market value of encrypted money. Bitcoin’s continued victory over the rest of the ecosystem means that only bitcoins are important, which seems unlikely given the intelligent contracts and market funds that are deployed in other chains”.
自上周加密市场突然回调，比特币在失守30000美元关键位置后，交易价格便一直在27000美元附近徘徊。以太坊同步走低，抹去上海升级后长达数周的涨幅。此外，上周比特币投资产品的资金净流出量达5310万美元，打破了连续六周的净流入局面。
The price of Bitcoin has been hovering around $27,000 since last week’s sudden return from the encrypted market, when it lost its key position of $30,000. The Taiku has stagnated, displacing several weeks of escalation in Shanghai.
不仅如此，资金似乎正在涌入山寨币，尤其是Meme模因币。例如PEPE——以悲伤蛙表情包的名字命名的代币，市值在不到五天的时间里飙升至8600万美元，在CoinGecko的榜单中成为第六大最有价值的模因币。
Moreover, the money seems to be pouring into the mountain coins, especially the Meme Monet. For example, PEPE, a token named after the Sad Frog Emblem, has skyrocketed its market value to $86 million in less than five days, making it the sixth most valuable mound in CoinGecko's list.
CoinShares研究主管James Butterfill认为，获利回吐可能是加密市场回调主要原因，即主动改变持仓部位而使账面利润转化为实际利润，同时美国监管不确定性以及美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的打击行动可能会促使投资者采取观望态度。
According to James Butterhill, the research director of CoinShares, profit retrenchment may be the main cause of the cryptomarket retrenchment, i.e., the proactive change in position to convert book profits into real profits, while regulatory uncertainty in the United States and the strike by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may prompt investors to take a wait-and-see attitude.
总结
比特币作为一种投资标的，其价格通常与市场供求、政府政策、投资者情绪等各种因素相关，且加密市场具有较高的波动率，因此后续不排除还会出现深度回调。但从长期来看，宏观催化剂、比特币减半、以太坊持续升级或将成为加密市场反弹的关键叙事，这确实值得期待。返回搜狐，查看更多
Bitcoin, as an investment target, is usually associated with a variety of factors, such as market supply and demand, government policy, investor sentiment, and the high volatility of the encryption market, which does not preclude further deep feedback. But in the long run, macro-catalysts, bitcoin by half, and the continued upgrading of the courthouse or the key narratives that will bounce back into the encrypted market are certainly to be expected. returned to search for more
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