未来30年，这20项技术将颠覆人类生活

物联网、数据分析、以及人工智能这三大技术之间的合作将会在世界上创造出一个巨大的智能机器网络，在不需人力介入的情况下实现巨量的商业交易。

Cooperation among the three main technologies: physical networking, data analysis, and artificial intelligence will create a vast network of smart machines & #xff0c in the world; and large commercial transactions without human intervention.

但是，虽然物联网会提高经济效率、公共安全，以及个人生活，它也会加重对于网络安全和个人隐私的担忧。

but #xff0c; although networking will increase economic efficiency, public safety, and personal life #xff0c; it will also increase concerns about cybersecurity and personal privacy.

恐怖分子，犯罪集团以及敌对势力将会利用物联网作为新的攻击手段。

Terrorists & #xff0c; criminal groups and hostile forces will use the Internet as a new means of attack.

而物联网中所包含的大量数据也会诱惑政府去实施针对人民的监控，从而进一步的引发隐私和安全之间的对抗。

The wealth of data contained in the Internet also induces governments to implement surveillance against people #xff0c; this further provokes confrontations between privacy and security.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

二、机器人与自动化系统

在2045年的地球上，机器人和自动化系统将无处不在。自动驾驶汽车会使交通更加安全与高效，或许还会给共享经济带来新的动力。

On Earth in 2045, xff0c; robotics and automated systems will be everywhere. Autopilots will make traffic safer and more efficient xff0c; they may also give new impetus to the shared economy.

机器人则会负责日常生活中大量的任务，比如照顾老人与买菜，以及工业中的职责，比如收获农作物，维护公共设施等等。

Robots are responsible for a large number of tasks in everyday life & #xff0c; for caring for the elderly and buying vegetables & #xff0c; for industrial duties & #xff0c; for harvesting crops & #xff0c; maintaining public facilities, etc.

而随着机器人的机动性、灵敏度以及智能的提高，它们将成为强大的战士，在战场上辅助、甚至替代人类士兵作战。

And as robots become more mobile, sensitive and intelligent xff0c; they will become powerful fighters xff0c; they will aid and even replace human soldiers on the battlefield.

人工智能软件则会被使用到商业上，例如从数百TB的数据里面提取有意义的信息，使商业服务自动化，以及替代诸如客服、教师等传统意义上 “以人为本”的职业。

Artificial intelligence software is used in commercial & #xff0c; for example, to extract meaningful information from hundreds of TB data & #xff0c; to automate business services & #xff0c; and to replace traditional “people-centred” occupations such as customer service, teachers.

但是，机器人与自动化也会带来许多的危机。

but #xff0c; robotics and automation can cause many crises.

数百万工作被机器取代的下岗职工将会给社会造成极大的冲击，导致经济与社会的不稳。

Millions of laid-off workers who have been replaced by machines will have a great impact on society #xff0c; it will lead to economic and social instability.

自动化网络系统则会成为各个敌对势力相互攻击的主要突破口。在冲突中使用机器人和自动化系统则有可能造成极大的伦理和文化挑战。

Automated web systems can be the main entry point for opposing forces to attack each other. The use of robotics and automated systems in conflicts can pose great ethical and cultural challenges.

代表性技术：

在接下来的30年里，我们处理巨量动态数据的能力将会逐渐提高。自动人工智能软件将可以从散乱的数据中识别并提取有关联的信息。

In the next 30 years & #xff0c; our ability to process massive dynamic data will grow. Automatic AI software will identify and extract relevant information from scattered data.

而这种数据分析的能力将会从商业应用扩散到普通人手里。

This capacity for data analysis will spread from commercial applications to ordinary people.

人们将获得在生活中使用大数据的能力，并且通过这种能力来迫使政府以及各种机构对它们的政策负责。

People will have access to the ability to use big data in their lives xff0c; and through this capacity, Governments and institutions will be held accountable for their policies.

而这很有可能引起关于数据限制的冲突。超级个性化营销，政府对人民数据的监视，以及各大数据被盗案件的曝光则会引起数据所有权的讨论。

This is likely to give rise to a conflict over data restrictions. Super-personalized marketing & #xff0c; government surveillance of people’s data & #xff0c; and exposure to major data theft cases may lead to a discussion of data ownership.

各个敌对势力则可以利用被盗取的，从暗网中购买的，甚至是开源的数据来相互攻击。

The opposing forces can use stolen xff0c; xff0c purchased from the dark web; and even open source data to attack each other.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

八、人类增强

在接下来的30年里，科技将带领人类突破人类潜力的极限甚至生物的极限。由物联网连接的可穿戴设备将会把与实时有关的信息直接打入我们的感官中。

In the next 30 years #xff0c; technology will lead humanity beyond the limits of human potential and even the limits of life. The wearing device connected to the object network will bring real-time information directly into our senses.

外骨骼和与大脑连接的假肢将会使我们变得更加强大，为老弱病残恢复移动力。

The external bones and artificial limbs connected to the brain will make us stronger #xff0c; restore mobility for the sick and the elderly.

装有探测器和嵌入式计算机的隐形眼镜或者被永久植入在体内的装备将给我们带来可以穿墙的听力，天然夜视，以及可以嵌入虚拟和增强现实系统的能力。

Visible and embedded computer contact lenses, or equipment permanently implanted in the body, will provide us with wall-piercable hearing & #xff0c; natural night vision & #xff0c; and the ability to embed virtual and enhance reality systems.

益智药将会扩大我们的思维能力，改变工作和学习的方式。

Psychics will expand our thinking skills & #xff0c; change the way we work and learn.

当然，人类增强科技也会带来新的挑战。那些负担不起“升级肉体”价格的人群很有可能发现他们在增强经济里毫无竞争力。

of course #xff0c; human enhancement of science and technology also poses new challenges. people who cannot afford the price of “upgrading the body” are likely to find themselves uncompetitive in enhancing the economy.

而增强科技的联网则会让我们的身体甚至大脑成为黑客的目标。对士兵的增强很有可能引发一场新的增强科技军备竞赛。

Increased access to technology makes our bodies, and even our brains, targets hackers. Increased soldiers are likely to trigger a new technology-enhanced arms race.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

九、网络安全

网络安全不是一个崭新的话题。事实上，早在1991年就有人提出了“网络上的珍珠港”这一警告。

Cybersecurity is not a brand new topic. In fact, xff0c; as early as 1991, a warning was issued about the Pearl Harbor on the Web.

但是在未来的30年里，随着物流网的发展以及日常生活中越来越多的连接，网络安全将会成为网络行业首要的话题。

But in the next 30 years xff0c; as logistics networks develop and connections to xff0c are increasing in daily life; cybersecurity will become the top topic in the network industry.

目前，虽然世界上的网络攻击越来越多，但是它们大多数的目标都只是个人或者企业。

At present xff0c; while the world is experiencing an increasing number of cyberattacks xff0c; most of them, however, are aimed only at individuals or businesses.

而且这些攻击所造成的损失虽然很大，但是这些损失并不会扩散。而未来的世界将不会是如此的简单。

And the damage caused by these attacks, though significant, does not spread. And the future world will not be so simple.

随着汽车、家电、电厂、路灯，以及数百万个其他的事物相互连接，网络攻击的后果也会越来越严重。

As cars, appliances, power plants, street lights & #xff0c; and millions of other things connect #xff0c, the consequences of cyberattacks will also become more severe.

国家、企业、以及个人的数据将会面临越来越隐蔽的攻击。有些甚至在数年后才会被发现。

State, business, and personal data will face increasingly hidden attacks. Some will be discovered even a few years later.

目前，人们可以想象出来最坏的情况就是“网络世界末日”– 在越发越疯狂越频繁的攻击下，整个世纪的互联网以及其中所包含的经济社会功能的崩溃。

xff0c; the worst that one can imagine is the “end of the web world” — under increasingly insane and frequent attacks xff0c; the collapse of the Internet and the economic and social functions it contains throughout the century.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

十、社交网络

如今，大约有65%的美国人使用社交网络，而在2005年，这个数量只有7%。社交网络已经开始展现出改变人类行为的能力。

Now xff0c; about 65% of Americans use social networks xff0c; in 2005 xff0c; this number is only 7%. social networks have begun to show their ability to change human behavior.

但是在未来的30年里，社交科技将会给人们带来可以创造出各自微型文化圈的力量。

But in the next 30 years #xff0c; social technology will give people the power to create their own micro-cultural circles.

人们将会使用科技形成社会契约和基于网络社区的社交结构，从而颠覆许多传统的权力结构。

Technology will be used to form social contracts and social structures based on cybercommunitys xff0c; thereby destabilizing many traditional power structures.

比如政治舆论，由于目击者们可以直接在网络上揭露腐败和压迫而不用通过媒体的过滤，政府将会发现舆论越来越难被直接控制。

For example, political opinion #xff0c; because witnesses can expose corruption and oppression directly on the Internet instead of filtering through the media #xff0c; governments will find it increasingly difficult to directly control public opinion.

或者企业责任，虽然企业可以通过社交网络直接接触到消费者，这些消费者也可以利用社交网络来突破营销的噪音，使企业对他们的产品和行为负责。

Or corporate responsibility & #xff0c; although businesses can directly reach consumers & #xff0c through social networks; these consumers can also use social networks to break through marketing noise & #xff0c; and businesses can be held accountable for their products and behaviour.

众筹和直播将会使内容创作进一步的民主化，从而模糊媒体人与观众之间的区别。

Public fund-raising and live broadcasting will further democratize content creation #xff0c; thus blur the distinction between media people and viewers.

而比特币以及其他加密货币也许会把货币和交易的控制从政府手中剥离，从此基于社会共识而不是政府的规定。

Bitcoin and other encrypted currencies may strip the control of money and transactions from the government; they are then based on social consensus rather than government regulation.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

?

十一、先进数码设备

由于计算机和各种数码设备在过去的60年里给人们生活带来的天翻地覆的改变，我们似乎已经忘了这些技术还比较新。

Because of the dramatic changes in people's lives caused by computers and various digital devices over the past 60 years xff0c; we seem to have forgotten that these technologies are relatively new.

个人电脑在1975年才出现在商店里，而当时的个人电脑有如今日的宜家，是作为一套零件卖给顾客的。

PCs appeared in shops only in 1975; at that time they had today's IKEA #xff0c; they were sold to customers as a set of spare parts.

用户需要自己把它组装起来，所有的程序也都需要自己编写。

Users need to assemble it themselves & #xff0c; all programs need to be prepared themselves.

仅仅40年后，人们手中智能手机的计算能力就已经远超1969年把宇航员送上月球时的NASA了。在未来的30年里，这个趋势也将会继续下去。

Only 40 years later xff0c; people's smartphones have far more computing power than NASA when they sent astronauts to the moon in 1969. xff0c; this trend will continue over the next 30 years.

人们将会拥有更多的计算能力以及更广的数码资源。移动网络和云计算将会给人们带来几乎无限的内存和计算能力。

People will have more computing power and broader digital resources. Mobile networks and cloud computing will bring near limitless memory and computing power.

虚拟技术和基于软件的系统将会允许政府和企业在不需要昂贵的硬件升级的情况下迅速的调整升级IT系统。

Virtual technology and software-based systems will allow Governments and enterprises to adapt IT systems rapidly without costly hardware upgrades.

从衣服到建材，数码产品将会更广泛的融入到日常生活中。在此同时，新科技将会改变我们与科技之间交流的方式。

From clothing to building materials #xff0c; digital products will be more widely integrated into everyday life. At the same time, #xff0c; new technologies will change the way we communicate with technology.

语音界面已经被广泛应用在智能手机中，而姿势界面则允许我们无声地与计算机通讯。

The voice interface has been widely used on smartphones & #xff0c; the position interface allows us to communicate silently with computers.

最终，人脑-电脑界面将会允许我们用思想控制数码设备，使它们成为我们身体的一部分。

final #xff0c; brain-computer interface will allow us to control digital devices #xff0c; make them part of our body.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

?

十二、先进材料

在过去的10年里，材料科学的突破给我们带来了许多种先进的材料。

Over the past 10 years xff0c; breakthroughs in material science have brought us many advanced materials.

从可以自我恢复和自我清理的智能材料，到可以恢复原本形状的记忆金属，到可以利用压力发电的压电陶瓷材料，到拥有惊人的结构和电力性能的纳米材料，这些都是材料科学家的成功。

These are the success of material scientists, ranging from smart materials that can recover and clean themselves & #xff0c; memory metals that can restore their original shape & #xff0c; voltage ceramic materials that can generate electricity from pressure & #xff0c; and nanomaterials that have amazing structures and electrical performances & #xff0c.

尤其是纳米材料，它有着广泛的应用价值。

Nanomaterials in particular #xff0c; it has extensive application value.

在纳米尺度（少于100纳米），普通的材料比如碳，将会呈现出独特的性能。

At nanoscales & #xff08; less than 100 nanometres & #xff09; & #xff0c; general materials such as carbon #xff0c; will show unique performance.

石墨烯，一种由碳原子构成的只有一层原子厚度的二维晶体，强度是钢的100倍，能够高效的传导热和电，并且几乎透明。

Paramylene & #xff0c; a two-dimensional crystal & #xff0c, made up of carbon atoms with only a layer of atom thickness; 100 times the strength of steel & #xff0c; efficient conductive heat and electricity & #xff0c; and almost transparent.

纳米材料有着无数种应用，比如作为引擎或其他机械表面的低摩擦力镀膜，作为高强度合成材料来建造汽车和飞机，轻便的防弹背心，以及高效的光伏材料。

Nanomaterials have numerous applications & #xff0c; low friction plating & #xff0c as engine or other mechanical surfaces; car and aircraft & #xff0c as high-intensity composite material; light bulletproof vests & #xff0c; and efficient photovoltaic materials.

在工业应用之外，制药企业也正在研究作为靶向分子的医疗纳米粒子用于治疗癌症。

In addition to industrial applications xff0c; pharmaceutical companies are also studying medical nanoparticles as target molecules for cancer treatment.

在未来的30年里，纳米材料以及新型材料，比如泡沫金属以及陶瓷复合材料将会被用在从衣服，到建材，到车辆，到公路以及桥梁中，无处不在。

Over the next 30 years xff0c; nanomaterials and new materials xff0c; e.g. foam metals and ceramic composites will be used from clothing xff0c; to building materials xff0c; to vehicles xff0c; to roads and bridges xff0c; everywhere.

?

十三、太空科技

太空行业正在进入一个从上个世纪60年代后就从未出现过的发展阶段。

The space industry is entering a phase of development that has never occurred since the 1960s.

新的科技，比如机器人，先进的推进系统，轻便的材料，增加制造，以及元件小型化正在减少把人和物送入太空的价格，而这则会开启太空探险的新机会。

New technologies xff0c; such as robots xff0c; advanced propulsion systems xff0c; light materials xff0c; increased manufacturing xff0c; and miniaturization of components are reducing the price of sending people and goods into space xff0c; this will open up new opportunities for space exploration.

SpaceX（美国太空探索技术公司），Arianespace（阿丽亚娜航天公司），Blue Origin（由亚马逊CEO杰夫-贝索斯创办，该公司一直在秘密地测试其New Shepard火箭）等太空行业的新人已经带来了例如可回收火箭等颠覆式创新。

SpaceX（ NASA & #xff09; & #xff0c; Arianespace & #xff08; Arianespace & #xff09; & #xff0c; Blue Origan & #xff08; xff0c, created by CEO Jeff-Bessos, Amazon; the company has been secretly testing its New Shepard rocket & #xff09; and new people in the space industry have brought about subversive innovations such as recyclable rockets.

在未来的30年里，科技的研发将会带领人类将重返月球。

In the next 30 years #xff0c; research and development of technology will lead mankind back to the moon.

在此之外，更加伟大的探险，比如人类登录火星也是，以及新型基于太空的行业，比如在开采小行星中的矿物也都有可能出现。

Beyond this, #xff0c; the greater adventure #xff0c; for example, human access to Mars & #xff0c; and new space-based industries & #xff0c; for example, minerals in asteroid mining are also likely to emerge.

虽然探索甚至殖民太空是现代人来长久的梦想，但是对太空设施的需求很有可能加大地球上的冲突。

While exploring and even colonizing space is a long-standing dream of modern man #xff0c, the need for space facilities is likely to exacerbate conflicts on Earth.

随着更多的国家开始依赖天基设备，对太空的控制将有可能成为一个全新的爆发点。

As more countries began to rely on space-based equipment xff0c; control of space would potentially become a completely new flashpoint.

天基武器不再是不可能，而反卫星也将成为未来战争的一部分。

Space-based weapons are no longer impossible xff0c; and anti-satellites will be part of future wars.

十四、合成生物科技

早在孟德尔发现遗传的基础规律，以及埃弗里-麦克劳德-麦卡蒂实验证明DNA是遗传物质之前，人类已经进行了几千年的通过选择性育种以及杂交来操纵植物和动物的遗传基因了。

Long before the foundational patterns of genetic discovery in Mendel & #xff0c; and before the Avery-Mclaud-McCarty experiment proved that DNA was genetic material & #xff0c; humans had been engaged for thousands of years in the genetic manipulation of plants and animals through selective breeding and hybrids.

随着我们对遗传学认知的加深，我们已经可以通过搭建新的DNA来实现无中生有，创造出新的生物。

As we deepen our knowledge of genetics xff0c; as we build new DNA, we can create new organisms xff0c.

基因改造农作物则是此项科技的先锋。但是在此同时，我们正站在一场生物革命的突破口。

Genetically modified crops are the vanguard of this technology. But at the same time, #xff0c; we are standing at the crossroads of a biological revolution.

当我们跨入生物科技的新时代时，生命将会成为信息，如同电脑程序的代码一样，可以被改写的信息。

When we enter the new era of biotech, xff0c; life will become information xff0c; like computer program code xff0c; information that can be rewritten.

科学家正在开发一种可以分泌生物柴油的海藻，这种海藻的DNA中则被编写了数千GB的数据。

Scientists are developing a biodiesel-distributable seaweed #xff0c; thousands of GB data have been compiled in the DNA of this seaweed.

在未来的30年里，合成生物科技将制造出可以探测到毒素，从工业废料中制造生物柴油，以及通过共栖来给人类寄主提供药物的生物。

xff0c > over the next 30 years; synthetic biotech will create organisms that can detect toxins xff0c; biodiesel xff0c from industrial waste; and drugs for human hosts through co-habitation.

但是，合成生物也会带来生物武器和难以控制的入侵物种等巨大的危险。

But xff0c; synthetic organisms also pose great risks such as biological weapons and invasive species that are difficult to control.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

十五、增材制造

增材制造（3D打印）已经在工业界作为制造限量设计原型的技术而被使用超过30年了。但是，在近十年里，3D打印技术获得了惊人的发展。

Increment manufacturing xff08; 3D printing xff09; has been in use in industry for more than 30 years as a manufacturing limit design prototype. But xff0c; xff0c; 3D printing technology has developed dramatically over the last 10 years.

如今，随着3D打印机价格的下降以及大量开源工具和付费模型的出现，世界上已经出现了一个庞大的“创客”群体，无时不刻的在突破这项技术的极限。

Now xff0c; with the decline in the price of 3D printers and the emergence of a large number of open-source tools and payment models xff0c; the emergence of a large group of “inventors” xff0c in the world; and the breaking of the limits of this technology from time to time.

在2040年，3D打印技术将改变世界。

In 2040 xff0c; 3D printing technology will change the world.

新一代的3D打印机将可以融合多种材料，电子元件，电池以及其他原件。

The new generation of 3D printers at

人们将会利用3D打印技术制造工具，电子产品，备用零件，医疗设备等各种产品，并按照自己个人需求来实现真正的“私人订制”。

People will use the 3D printing technology manufacturing tool & #xff0c; electronic products & #xff0c; spare parts & #xff0c; various products such as medical equipment & #xff0c; and real “private regulation” according to their personal needs.

军队的后勤将变得更简单，因为装备和补给可以在当地直接打印。物体将会变成信息，而网络盗版将会代替现实偷窃。

The military’s logistics will become simpler xff0c; because equipment and supplies can be printed directly locally. Objects will become information xff0c; and Internet piracy will replace reality theft.

而恐怖分子以及犯罪集团将会使用难以追查的原材料来打印武器，探测器，以及其他装备，给社会安定造成极大的隐患。

Terrorists and criminal groups will use hard-to-trace raw materials to print weapons & #xff0c; detectors & #xff0c; and other equipment & #xff0c; causing great danger to social stability.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

十六、医学

在未来的30年里，各种科学技术上的突破将改变医学。通过基因组学，我们将会得到真正的私人药物。

In the next 30 years #xff0c; various scientific and technological breakthroughs will change medicine. Through genomics #xff0c; we will get real private drugs.

在未来，癌症，心肺疾病，阿兹海默症，以及其他目前看似无救的疾病将会由针对患者个人基因的药物来治疗。

In the future, xff0c; cancer xff0c; cardiopulmonary disease xff0c; Alzheimer's disease xff0c; and other seemingly hopeless diseases will be treated with personal genetic drugs.

人类将可以通过DNA培养出来移植所需的器官，从而灭绝等待配型以及排斥反应等很可能致命的情况。

Humans will be able to cultivate the organs & #xff0c that they need to transplant through DNA; thus extinction in potentially deadly situations such as waiting for formulas and exclusionary reactions.

生物假肢将会被直接连接到神经系统上，从而提供与真实触感极其相似的感官。

Bioprosthetic limbs will be connected directly to the nervous system xff0c; this will provide a sense that is very similar to the real touch.

机器急救人员以及例如控制性降温的肢体存活技术将会大幅度延长救援的“黄金时间”。

The “gold time” for rescue will be greatly extended by mechanical first aid workers and, for example, by the techniques of physical survival that control the cooling.

科学家们将找到衰老的原因，从而增加人类的寿命，涌现出一大群非常健康并有活力的“老人”。

Scientists will find the reasons for ageing & #xff0c; thereby increasing human longevity & #xff0c; and the emergence of a large group of very healthy and dynamic “old people”.

另一方面，发达的医疗设施的价格将会给各国的医疗系统带来更大的压力。穷人与富人之间的救命资源也会出现极大地不均。

On the other hand, #xff0c; prices for well-developed health facilities will put greater pressure on national health systems. There will also be significant disparities in life-saving resources between the poor and the rich.

而且随着人类寿命的增加，年轻人与老人之间对于工作以及资源的竞争则会加剧。抗药性极高的超级细菌也会给世界各地的人们带来极大的危险。

And as human life increases #xff0c; competition between young and old people for work and resources increases. Highly resistant superb bacteria can also pose a great danger to people around the world.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

?

十七、能源

在未来的30年里，全球能源需求预计会增长35%，我们则正在面临着一场能源革命。

xff0c > over the next 30 years; global energy demand is expected to grow by 35% xff0c; we are facing an energy revolution.

新的采油技术，比如水力压裂以及定向钻为人类添加了大量可开发的油田和气田。

New oil extraction techniques xff0c; e.g. hydraulic cracks and directional drilling add a large number of exploitable oil and gas fields to humans.

而这直接颠覆了世界石油市场，使美国从世界上最大的石油进口国变成了最大的石油生产国。

This directly destabilized the world oil market xff0c; it transformed the United States from being the world's largest oil importer to being the largest oil producer.

与此同时，可再生能源，比如太阳能和风能的价格也开始接近与石油。

At the same time, prices of xff0c; renewable energy xff0c; e.g. solar and wind energy have also started to approach oil.

就拿太阳能来说，在过去的10年里，太阳能发电的价格从每瓦8美元降低至这个数字的十分之一。

In the case of solar energy xff0c; in the last 10 years xff0c; the cost of solar power generation has been reduced from $8 per watt to one tenth of that figure.

在此之外，还有核能这个抱有争议但从未停止开发的能源。新一代的核反应堆设计宣称远比之前的更安全，也会产生更少的核废料。

Beyond this, there is nuclear power, a controversial but never-stopped energy source. A new generation of nuclear reactor designs claims to be much safer than before #xff0c; they also produce fewer nuclear waste.

不过，虽然使用清洁能源可以帮助我们减缓全球气候变化，但是围绕着用于生产电池，光伏，以及其他元件的稀有资源的新的纠纷与摩擦也会出现。

But xff0c; while the use of clean energy can help us to mitigate global climate change xff0c; but new disputes and frictions around scarce resources for the production of batteries xff0c; photovoltaic xff0c; and other components will also arise.

石油经济的消退也会在中东和北非引起经济和社会的严重不稳，进一步加深当地的武装冲突。

The decline in the oil economy could also cause serious economic and social instability in the Middle East and North Africa; and further deepen the armed conflict on the ground.

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

?

十八、新型武器

在未来的30年里，数种新型武器技术将出现在战场上。

in the next 30 years xff0c; several new weapons technologies will appear on the battlefield.

除了目前正在开发中的非致命武器以及能量武器之外，数个国家也正在开发可以阻绝军事行动能力的反介入和区域阻绝武器（A2AD）。

In addition to the non-lethal and energy-related weapons currently under development, several countries are also developing counter-intrusion and regional-refusion weapons that can deter military capabilities & #xff08; A2AD）

A2AD技术包括反舰弹道导弹、精密制导反车辆反人员武器、反火箭炮、火炮和迫击炮系统（CRAM）、反卫星武器，以及电磁脉冲武器（EMP）。

A2AD technology includes anti-ship ballistic missiles, precision-guided anti-personnel weapons, anti-rockets, artillery and mortar systems xff08; CRAM） anti-satellite weapons xff0c; and electromagnetic pulse weapons xff08; EMPxff09;

有些技术，比如精密制导武器，属于基于现有科技的突破。中国就正在开发可以摧毁航空母舰的先进反舰弹道导弹。

Some technologies & #xff0c; such as precision-guided weapons & #xff0c; are breakthroughs based on existing technology. China is developing advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles that can destroy aircraft carriers.

而有些技术则属于崭新的主意，比如2015年由美国防部高等研究计划部(DARPA)所开发的EXACTO自导子弹。

Some of the technologies are new & #xff0c; for example, EXACTO self-guided bullets developed in 2015 by the Department of Advanced Research and Planning (DRPA) of the US Ministry of Defence.

随着中国，俄罗斯，美国以及其他国家斥巨资推进军队现代化，新一代的高科技军备竞争正在揭晓。

With China & #xff0c; Russia & #xff0c; the United States and other countries investing heavily in the modernization of the army & #xff0c; the new generation of high-tech arms competition is becoming known.

?

十九、食物与淡水科技

在未来的30年里，淡水和食物的缺乏将会在世界上制造更多的冲突。

over the next 30 years; lack of fresh water and food will create more conflicts in the world.

大约全球25%的农地已经由于过度耕作，干旱，污染等原因造成了严重退化。

About 25 per cent of the world's agricultural land is already severely degraded by overcultivation & #xff0c; drought & #xff0c; and pollution.

在未来的几十年里，最乐观的预测也指出主食谷物的价格将会提高30%。但那是最乐观的情况。

In the coming decades #xff0c; the most optimistic projections also point to a 30% increase in the price of staple grains. But that is the most optimistic.

如果全球气候变化、需求，以及资源管理的失败按照目前的趋势继续下去，价格提高100%也是可能的。

A 100 per cent price increase is also possible if global climate change, demand xff0c; and resource management failures continue according to current trends xff0c.

在2045年，全球超过40%的人口将会面临缺乏水源的问题。

In 2045 xff0c; more than 40 per cent of the global population will face a lack of access to water.

这一切问题的解决方式只有科技。

The only way to solve all these problems is through technology.

海水淡化、微型灌溉、污水回收、雨水收集等科技将会减缓人类对淡水水源的需求。

Technologies such as desalination, microirrigation, sewage recycling and rainwater harvesting will reduce human demand for fresh water sources.

基因改造农作物以及自动化将会允许农民使用更少的土地来出产更多的食物。

Genetically modified crops and automation will allow farmers to use less land to produce more food.

食物和淡水将会成为新的科技热点，也会成为新的冲突爆发点。

代表性技术：

representative technologyxff1a;

实际应用：

Practical applicationxff1a;

?

二十、对抗全球气候变化

根据目前的数据，在2050年，地球表面的温度将增加1.4至3摄氏度。

based on current data xff0c; in 2050 xff0c; temperatures on the Earth's surface will increase by 1.4-3 degrees Celsius.

就算我们采取了一些极端方式来减少温室气体的排放，气候的惯性也会引起温度的提高。

Even if we take some extreme measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions xff0c; climate inertia can lead to higher temperatures.

而地表温度的提高则会带来一系列的恶果。

The rise in surface temperatures, on the other hand, has a series of adverse consequences.

比如海平面的提高给海岸城市所带来的危险，农作物产量的下降所引发的饥荒，干旱导致数百万人缺乏饮用水，以及洪水所造成的数十亿损失。

For example, rising sea levels pose a danger to coastal cities xff0c; famine caused by falling crop yields xff0c; drought caused millions of people to lack access to drinking water xff0c; and floods caused billions of losses.

在未来的30年里，这些危机将会引导各方投资研究可以减缓气候变化所带来的影响的科技。

Over the next 30 years #xff0c; these crises will lead to investments in science and technology that can mitigate the effects of climate change.

在近期，这些科技将包括在地图上标出有洪水危险的系统，以及可以抵抗干旱的基因改造农作物。

In the near future xff0c; these technologies will include the mapping of flood-risk systems xff0c; and genetically modified crops that are resistant to drought.

在更长远的时间里，也许会出现野心更大的科技，比如可以从大气中提取二氧化碳和甲烷等温室气体，并在把它们安全的储存在地下的科技。

In the longer term xff0c; there may be more ambitious technologies xff0c; for example, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane can be extracted from the atmosphere xff0c; and technologies that safely store them underground.

但是，如果气候变化的趋势是增加3度这种最坏的情况，它给地球气候所造成的巨大影响将难以减缓。

But xff0c; if the trend of climate change is to increase by three degrees, the worst scenario xff0c; its enormous impact on the Earth's climate will be difficult to mitigate.

在这种情况下，极端的地理工程手段很有可能是避免极度恶劣气候的唯一方式。

In this case xff0c; extreme geoengineering techniques are likely to be the only way to avoid extreme weather conditions.

科学家们就曾提出在大气层中散布硫或者氧化铝来减少抵达地球表面的阳光。不过，这些手段还处于理论阶段，风险非常大。

Scientists have suggested spreading sulphur or aluminium oxide in the atmosphere to reduce sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. But xff0c; these are still at the theoretical stage xff0c; the risks are very high.

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