华夏时报(公众号:chinatimes)记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter Jo Hu Jinhua, Shanghai.
在短暂的冲高后,7月20日,比特币价格再次回落至3万美元以下,截至发稿,比特币最新价格为29930.79美元,24小时内下跌0.41%,周内跌幅3.23%。衍生品方面,最近24小时,共有2.1万人被爆仓,爆仓总金额约5700万美元。
After a brief hike, on 20 July, the price of Bitcoin fell again below $30,000, with the latest price of Bitcoin falling by 0.41 per cent in 24 hours and 3.23 per cent in a week. On derivatives, in the last 24 hours, a total of 21,000 people were sunk, with a total of about $57 million.
在经历过2022年的狂风暴雨之后,进入2023年,投资机构对待加密市场的热情已经逐渐冷却。根据研究公司PitchBook发布的最新数据,今年第二季度,风险投资公司对加密货币和数字资产公司的投资,创下了2020年以来的新低。
After the storm of 2022, in 2023, the enthusiasm of investment agencies for encryption has cooled down. According to the latest data released by the research company PitchBook, in the second quarter of this year, venture capital companies’ investments in cryptographic money and digital asset companies reached a new low since 2020.
数据显示,2022年,全球加密市场的融资金额为267.7亿美元,共进行了1528笔融资交易。然而,2023年上半年,加密行业的融资金额出现了大幅下降。在过去的半年里,全球加密市场只筹集到了47.74亿美元的资金,进行了总共497起融资交易。相比于2022年,融资金额下降了80%。
The data show that in 2022, the global encryption market was financed by $26.77 billion, with a total of 1,528 financing transactions. However, in the first half of 2023, the financing of the encryption industry declined significantly. In the past six months, the global encryption market has raised only $4.774 billion, with a total of 497 financing transactions.
“从宏观经济的角度来看,这可能反映了投资者对于全球经济环境和市场趋势的不确定性。在面对经济周期、货币政策、地缘政治等多重不确定因素的影响下,投资机构可能会选择降低风险敞口,暂时减少对于高风险资产如加密货币的投资。”UWEB校长、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁向《华夏时报(公众号:chinatimes)》记者表示。
“From a macroeconomic perspective, this may reflect investors’ uncertainty about the global economic environment and market trends. In the face of multiple uncertainties, such as economic cycles, monetary policy, and geopolitics, investment agencies may choose to reduce exposure to risk and temporarily reduce investment in high-risk assets, such as encrypted currencies.” UWEB Rector and Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association, Janin, told a Washington Times journalist.
加密市场投资额持续下降
The level of investment in the cryptomarkets has continued to decline
数据显示,经过第一季度的繁荣后,加密市场继第二季度巩固涨幅后,仅小幅上涨0.14%,总市值从2023年3月31日的1.238万亿美元增至2023年6月30日的1.240万亿美元。2023年第二季度,去中心化交易所的现货交易量下降了28.1%,中心化交易所现货交易量下降43.2%。
The data show that, after the first quarter boom, the encryption market increased only marginally by 0.14 per cent, following the consolidation of the second quarter, with the total market value increasing from $1.238 trillion as at 31 March 2023 to $1.24 trillion as at 30 June 2023. In the second quarter of 2023, the volume of off-the-shelf transactions at decentralized exchanges fell by 28.1 per cent and the volume of off-the-shelf transactions at centralized exchanges fell by 43.2 per cent.
市场价格的低迷、反复不定的监管以及一系列的丑闻,让一些机构投资者对加密市场丧失了信心。
Low market prices, volatile regulation and a series of scandals have lost the confidence of some institutional investors in the encryption market.
加密货币风险投资公司Galaxy Digital发布的加密风投市场报告显示,分配给加密初创公司的资本总额在持续下降。数据显示,2023年第二季度,加密货币和区块链行业总投资规模为23.2亿美元,创下了自2020年第四季度以来的最低水平,也延续了自2022年一季度130亿美元融资峰值后的下降趋势。实际上,加密货币和区块链初创公司在过去一年融资资金都不太乐观,过去三个季度的融资总和比2022年二季度单季还少。
The total amount of capital allocated to encryption start-ups continued to decline, according to the report of the cryptographic windfall market published by Galaxy Digital. The data show that in the second quarter of 2023, the total investment in encryption money and block chain industries was $2.32 billion, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2020, and a downward trend since the peak of $13 billion in financing in the first quarter of the first quarter of the first quarter of the first quarter of the first quarter of 2022.
该报告还显示,自2020年第三季度以来,2023年第二季度新基金发行数量最少,仅有10只,分配资金也最低,为7.2亿美元。结合2023年上半年的数据,新基金的平均规模目前为2.36亿美元,中位数为5000万美元,均较去年大幅下降。
The report also shows that since the third quarter of 2020, new funds have been issued with the lowest number of releases, only 10 in the second quarter of 2023, with the lowest allocation of $720 million. With data for the first half of 2023, the average size of new funds is currently $236 million, with a median of $50 million, which is a significant decrease from last year.
对此,于佳宁认为,这可能反映了投资者对于加密市场的短期看跌预期。在比特币等主要加密货币价格出现大幅波动,甚至下跌的情况下,投资机构可能会出于风险规避的考虑,暂时减少投资。但这并不意味着投资机构对于加密货币和区块链技术的信心有所动摇。相反,许多投资机构可能正在等待更好的入场时机,以期在未来从加密市场的发展中获得收益。
In response, Gianning argues that this may reflect investors’ short-term expectations of an encrypted market. In the case of large fluctuations or even declines in the prices of major encrypted currencies, such as Bitcoin, investment agencies may temporarily reduce their investment for risk avoidance reasons.
一位职业加密资产投资人向《华夏时报(公众号:chinatimes)》记者表示,由于市场信心缺乏、募资困难等缘故,加密投资机构集体减缓了投资频次和金额。在这种环境下,很多缺乏现金流与应用场景的项目将会被淘汰。加密项目需要重新评估自己的现金流情况以及收支情况,以为意外情况做出应对策略。
In this environment, many projects that lack cash flows and applications will be eliminated. The encryption project needs to re-evaluate its cash flow and balance of payments in order to respond to unexpected events.
值得注意的是,随着ChatGPT引爆AI赛道,Web3、加密货币如何与AI结合也引发了许多人的关注与实践。在第二季度,Gensyn、WorldCoin、Kaito 等人工智能概念的加密项目均获得融资。
It is worth noting that, with ChatGPT detonating the AI track, Web3 and the combination of encrypted money with AI have also generated many concerns and practices. In the second quarter, encryption projects for artificial intelligence concepts such as Gensyn, WorldCoin, and Kaito were financed.
具体来看,AI概念的Web3项目可以分为两类,一类是基础设施方向,优化AI生态运作逻辑,另一类是应用方向,利用AI技术优化web3领域的工作。
Specifically, Project Web3 of the AI concept can be divided into two categories: infrastructure orientation, optimizing the ecological logic of AI, and application orientation, optimizing work in the area of web3 using AI technology.
投资机构“组团”向加密市场说不
值得注意的是,投资机构并不仅仅是缩减了对加密市场的投资数额,已经有多家机构明确表示,不再投资加密项目。
It is worth noting that investment agencies have not merely reduced the amount of investment in the encryption market, and that several agencies have made it clear that they will no longer invest in encryption projects.
曾支持过Blockstream和Lumida等数字加密货币公司的千禧资本管理合伙人Joe Zhao明确表示,他已经准备好逃离数字资产。在其看来,与区块链相比,AI具有更多的应用案例。据悉,千禧资本如今正深入涉足AI市场,并投资了一些备受关注的AI初创企业,包括Stability AI。
Joe Zhao, the millennial capital manager who supported digital encryption companies such as Blockstream and Lumida, has made it clear that he is ready to flee digital assets. In his view, AI has more applications than a block chain.
日前,新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡公布了七年来最差业绩。在截至3月31日的2023财年年报中,淡马锡投资组合净值缩水5.2%至3820亿新元(约合2840亿美元),是自2020财年以来首次出现净亏损。此外,截至3月31日,淡马锡年度股东总回报率为-5.07%,为2016年以来最差的年度表现。
Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, Leather Masi, had published its worst performance in seven years. In its annual report for the financial year 2023, as at 31 March, the net investment portfolio of Leather Horses had shrunk by 5.2% to $382 billion (approximately $28.4 billion), the first net loss since the 2020s. Moreover, as at 31 March, the total annual shareholder return had been 5.07%, the worst annual performance since 2016.
尽管淡马锡将该结果归结于经济衰退风险、利率上升和地缘政治紧张的局势等因素,但其在加密领域的折戟也无法被忽视。2022年下半年,全球第三大加密货币交易所FTX宣告已在美国申请破产,这也直接导致淡马锡投资的3.72亿新元也随之付诸东流。在财报发布的当天,淡马锡首席投资官Rohit Sipahimalani在接受采访时表示,在加密货币行业监管不确定的情况下,淡马锡目前并不打算投资加密货币公司。
In the second half of 2022, the world’s third largest encrypted currency exchange, FTX, announced that it had applied for bankruptcy in the United States, which also led directly to the disappearance of the $372 million invested in it. On the day of the announcement, Rohit Sipahimalani, the chief investment officer of Leamassey, said that, in the absence of regulatory uncertainty in the crypto-currency sector, he did not intend to invest in cryptographic money companies.
截至目前,根据加密数据平台RootData统计,淡马锡在区块链领域公布了近7笔投资,基本投资都是加密领域知名项目,其中包括FTX、FTX.US、Amber Group、Immutable、ConsenSys、Animoca Brands等。
To date, according to the Encrypted Data Platform RootData, Leamaszi has announced nearly seven investments in the area of block chains, the basic ones of which are well known projects in the field of encryption, including FTX, FTX.US, Amber Group, Immutable, ConsenSys, Animoca Brands, etc.
“我们从未想过投资加密货币。即使是对FTX的投资,我们也是指对交易所的投资,这使我们能够获得基于费用的收入,而不考虑资产负债表风险或任何交易风险。”Sipahimalani表示。
“We never thought about investing in encrypted currency. Even for FTX, we mean investing in the exchange, which allows us to get cost-based income, without taking account of balance sheet or any transactional risk.” Sipahimalani says.
加密市场观察人士向记者表示,机构逃离加密市场可能有多种原因。首先,加密市场的波动性较大,风险相对较高,对于一些机构而言,可能不愿意承担这样的风险;其次,FTX破产事件可能引发了市场的担忧,导致一些机构决定暂停或停止投资加密项目。
Encrypted market observers have suggested to journalists that there may be a number of reasons for agencies to flee the encryption market. First, encryption markets are more volatile and relatively risky, and may not be willing to take such risks for some institutions; second, the bankruptcy of FTX may raise market concerns and lead some agencies to decide to suspend or discontinue their investment in encryption projects.
浙江大学国际联合商学院数字经济与金融创新研究中心联席主任盘和林也向《华夏时报(公众号:chinatimes)》记者表示,FTX交易所的破产对于加密市场有深远的影响。首先,FTX存在挪用客户资金的情况,破坏了加密货币交易信誉;其次,FTX破产击碎了加密货币成为世界货币的信心。从比特币开始,加密货币一直有颠覆现行金融体系的意图,但信仰者却屡遭“现实暴击”。从之前的Luna币“跳水”,到FTX的破产,再到比特币暴跌,投资人对虚拟货币的信心已经相当脆弱。
The co-directorship of the Center for Research on Digital Economy and Financial Innovation of the United Business School of Zhejiang University and Lin also stated to the Washington Times (public: Chinatimes) that the bankruptcy of the FTX Exchange had far-reaching implications for the encryption market. First, FTX’s misappropriation of customer funds undermined the credibility of encrypted currency transactions; second, FTX’s bankruptcy shattered confidence that encrypted currency became the world currency.
欧洲加密资产管理公司CoinShares在FTX倒闭中损失了2600万英镑(约合3300万美元),其后加强了对对手方的尽职调查。CoinShares首席执行官Jean-Marie Mognetti表示,市场以前将公司分为红黄绿三个等级,现在只剩下红色和绿色,投资人只会看绝对安全的地方,不再考虑有风险的那批企业。
CoinShares, a European encryption asset management company, lost £26 million (approximately $33 million) in the collapse of FTX, and has since intensified due diligence with its counterparts. CoinShares Chief Executive Officer Jean-Marie Mognetti said that the market had divided the company into three levels: red and green, and now only red and green, and investors would see absolutely safe places, without considering the risk groups.
伦敦对冲基金Altana Wealth的数字资产投资组合经理Samed Bouaynaya也表示,加密行业投资者已经吸取了惨痛的教训,现在对跟谁打交道十分挑剔。
Samed Bouaynaya, a digital asset portfolio manager for the London hedge fund Altana Wealth, also said that the encryption industry investors had learned painful lessons and were now very selective about who to deal with.
“投资机构对加密市场表现冷淡,可能与加密市场的特性有关。”于佳宁表示,风投通常寻求高风险高回报的投资机会,而加密市场虽然有可能带来高回报,但其风险也相对较高,且难以通过传统的风险管理工具进行有效控制。此外,加密项目的成功率、商业模式的可持续性、团队的执行力等也是风投考虑的重要因素。在当前比较消极的环境下,可能有一部分风投认为加密项目在这些方面存在不确定性,因此选择持观望态度。
“Investment institutions’ low performance on encryption markets may be linked to the characteristics of encryption markets.” In Janing, it is suggested that winddrops often seek high-risk, high-return investment opportunities, while encryption markets are relatively high-risk and difficult to control effectively through traditional risk management tools. Moreover, the success rate of encryption projects, the sustainability of business models, team execution, etc. are also important factors in wind investment considerations.
责任编辑:徐芸茜 主编:公培佳
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