渣打银行最新研究报告显示，预计以太坊的原生加密货币以太币（ETH）的价值有望在未来五年内显著上涨。根据该行外汇和加密货币研究主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 的分析，到 2026 年底，ETH 的价格可能从目前约 1,600 美元飙升至 8,000 美元，涨幅高达五倍。
According to the analysis of Geoffrey Kendrick, the director of foreign exchange and cryptographic currency research, the prices of ETH may soar from about US$ 1,600 to US$ 8,000 by the end of 2026.
1. Kendrick 认为，以太坊作为智能合约平台不可动摇的主导地位及其在游戏和代币化应用方面的崭新角色，将在 2026 年底以前推动 ETH 达到 8,000 美元的历史高位。
According to Kendrick, the unshakeable dominance of Taiwan as a platform for intellectual contracts and its new role in games and monetization applications will advance ETH to a historic high of $8,000 by the end of 2026.
2. 他指出，此价位只是迈向渣打银行先前设定的 ETH 长期结构性估值区间——26,000 至 35,000 美元的第一步。尽管以太坊未来可能出现的用例和收入流还未显现，但游戏和代币化的实际应用将会为其发展提供有力支撑。
He noted that the price was only the first step towards the ETH long-term structural valuation range previously set by the Chartered Bank — $26,000 to $35,000. Although the future usages and revenue streams that might be available in Taiwan had not yet become apparent, the practical application of games and monetization would provide a strong support for its development.
以太坊技术进步与市场预期1. Kendrick 进一步指出，随着以太坊第二层扩容网络的增长，特别是借助如 proto-danksharding 技术升级，将有助于降低交易成本，从而进一步稳固以太坊在智能合约市场的领导地位，提升其未来的市盈率（即使尚未实现盈利）。
1. Kendrick further stated that, with the growth of the extended network at the second tier of the Etheria, especially through technological upgrades such as Proto-danksharding, it would help to reduce transaction costs and thus further strengthen the leadership of the Taishu in the smart contract market and increase its future market surplus (even if profits have not yet been realized).
外部因素对 ETH 价格的影响1. Kendrick 认为，预计将于 2024 年 4 月左右发生的比特币减半事件也将利好整个数字资产市场，特别是第二大加密货币 ETH。
According to Kendrick, the halving of bitcoin, which is expected to occur around April 2024, would also benefit the entire digital asset market, especially the second largest encrypted currency, ETH.
2. 此外，他预见到美国潜在的监管政策变化以及 ETH 现货 ETF 的获批，有望在 2024 年末美国大选后助力 ETH 及比特币（BTC）的表现。
In addition, he foresees potential regulatory changes in the United States and the approval of ETH spot ETFs, which are expected to contribute to the post-election performance of ETH and Bitcoin (BTC) in the United States at the end of 2024.
3. 尽管如此，Kendrick 预计 ETH 在 2024 年底时的价格可能达到 4,000 美元，仍未超过 2021 年底创下的历史最高价 4,866 美元。早在今年 4 月，他曾大胆预言比特币到 2024 年底将达到 10 万美元，并声称“加密寒冬”已经结束。当前比特币价格约为 27,300 美元。
Nevertheless, Kendrick expects the prices of ETH to reach US$ 4,000 by the end of 2024, still above the historic maximum price of US$ 4,866 set at the end of 2021. Earlier this year, in April, he had dared to predict that Bitcoin would reach US$ 100,000 by the end of 2024 and claimed that “encrypted winter” was over.
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