比特币跌破实现价格水平STH

来源：荒原狼的焊机

Source: Wild Wolf Welders

MicroStrategy创始人迈克尔·塞勒声称，比特币将达到每枚1000万美元。在一次84分钟的播客采访中，他提到比特币是完美的货币，并提供了经济永生的可能性。据23日(当地时间)报道，塞勒做出了这一大胆的价格预测：“比特币的价格将上涨至每枚1000万美元。”他解释说，比特币是完美的货币，“完美的货币意味着经济永生，而不完美的货币意味着短暂而艰难的生活。”

Michael Seller, founder of MicroStrategy, claimed that Bitcoin would reach $10 million per piece. In an 84-minute podcast, he mentioned Bitcoin as the perfect currency and offered the possibility of economic survival. According to 23 (local time), Shearer made this bold price forecast: “The price of Bitcoin will rise to $10 million per unit.” He explained that Bitcoin was the perfect currency, “the perfect currency means economic immortality, and the imperfect currency means a short and difficult life.”

塞勒认为，“在比特币出现之前，经济学只不过是一门伪科学。”他强调，现有的经济学是由偏见和主观意见塑造的，而比特币解决了这些问题。塞勒指出，“中本聪之前的经济学就像试图利用贝壳、玻璃珠、纸张和信用工具来寻找经济规律。”

“Until Bitcoin appeared, economics was nothing more than a pseudoscience.” He stressed that existing economics was shaped by prejudice and subjective opinion, and that Bitcoin solved these problems. Shearer pointed out that “the pre-med economy is like an attempt to find economic law by using shells, glass beads, paper and credit instruments.”

塞勒指出，企业的平均寿命约为10年，并认为比特币可以将企业的经济寿命延长10倍、100倍甚至100万倍。塞勒还预测，比特币未来的价值将达到1000万美元。他解释说，比特币引入后，经济范式将发生变化，并认为这将推动比特币的广泛接受和价值增加。

Sele notes that the average life expectancy of an enterprise is about 10 years, and argues that Bitcoin can extend the economic life of an enterprise by 10 times, 100 times, or even 1 million times. Sele also predicts that Bitcoin will be valued at $10 million in the future. He explains that the economic paradigm will change with the introduction of Bitcoin and believes that it will promote broad acceptance and value increases in Bitcoin.

比特币的价格目前围绕短期持有者(STH)的实现价格进行交易。根据Glassnode的数据，STH的实现价格为64,372美元。当前的比特币价格低于这一水平。STH实现价格是过去155天内购买比特币的平均成本。

The price of bitcoin is currently traded around the realization price of short-term holders (STH). According to Glasnode, the realized price of STH is $64,372. The current price of bitcoins is below this level. The realized price of STH is the average cost of purchasing bitcoins in the last 155 days.

跌破实现价格水平通常是市场调整的先兆。2018年，当比特币跌破11,012美元的实现价格时，进一步跌至8,455美元。2021年底，比特币价格从48,962美元跌至42,306美元。这种模式表明比特币可能很快会经历另一次调整。

支持这种可能性的另一个指标是市场与实现价值(MVRV)长期差距指标。该指标衡量新市场进入者和长期持有者的影响，目前为21.16%，显示新资本流入不足。

Another indicator that

MVRV指标有助于确定加密货币是处于牛市还是熊市。MVRV值为正表明比特币仍处于牛市，即使价格跌至61,000美元，从长远来看也可能具有潜在价值。此外，4小时图上的相对强弱指数(RSI)为40.87，显示出下行势头，强化了看跌前景。

MVRV indicators help determine whether the encrypted currency is in the cattle market or the bear market. The MVRV values indicate that Bitcoin is still in the cattle market and that even if the price drops to $61,000, it could be of potential value in the long run. In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour map is 40.87, showing downward momentum and strengthening the outlook.

Crypto Caesar分析师称，低于STH实际价格的交易是买入机会。虽然短期内可能出现下跌，但这代表着回归历史上升趋势。他解释说，尽管短期前景不佳，但长期复苏的可能性仍然存在。

Crypto Caesar analyst claims that transactions below the real prices of STH are buy-in opportunities. Although there may be a fall in the short term, this represents a return to the historical upward trend. He explains that, despite poor short-term prospects, the possibility of long-term recovery remains.