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下一轮牛市的领头羊可能不再是比特币，很可能由其他货币充当，其中，最有力的竞争者是以太坊。
The lead sheep of the next round of cattle may no longer be Bitcoin and may well be held by other currencies, of which the strongest competitor is Taipan.
我一般不研究具体数字货币的走势，而只是关注大的趋势，我连以太坊的代码都记不住，说它可能超越比特币只是感觉而已。
I don't usually study the movement of specific digital currencies, but I just focus on the big trends, and I can't even remember the code in Taiku, saying that it might go beyond bitcoin, it's just a feeling.
我认为下一轮牛市领头羊可能从比特币换成以太坊的主要依据，是从庄家的炒作逻辑出发，风水轮流转，主力炒作喜新厌旧，以及比特币经历八千多万倍的多次炒作，已经太老，且价格太高，套牢盘太多，主力可能会换个盘子炒作，而相对来说，以太坊价格较低，炒起来轻松。
I believe that the main basis for the next round of cattle leaders to switch from Bitcoin to Etheria is the logic of the dealership, the rotation of wind and water, the frenzy of the main force, and the fact that Bitcoin has experienced more than 80 million times the number of hysterias, is too old, too expensive, too high a plate, and the main force is likely to switch to a plate, whereas relatively low prices in Taitco make it easier.
另外，以太坊的销毁机制，第二代互联网的智能合约，生态比比特币更发达，投资价值也更高的现实也给以太坊加了不少分。
In addition, the destruction mechanisms of the Etherm, the second generation of Internet smart contracts, the more developed ecology than bitcoin, and the higher value of investment added a lot to the Etherm.
当然，这个只是根据以往已知情况做的推理，主观性较强，不一定会实现。当时无论是新闻媒介还是网络上都没有类似观点，只能说我的感觉比较敏锐，这个判断也只是直觉，未得到验证。
Of course, this is merely a theory based on what has been known in the past, which is more subjective than always. Neither the media nor the Internet had a similar view at the time.
不过，最近的一个数据，却有力支持了我的观点：
However, a recent figure strongly supports my view:
目前全球最大的专业基金公司富达数字资产公司于7月18日发布了《2023年第二季度信号报告》，调查发现47%的投资者预计以太坊将“超越”比特币。该报告对以太坊看涨前景背后的理由是网络相对于代币发行的更高的销毁率、“新地址趋势”以及网络验证器数量的增长。根据报告，自2022年9月合并以来的净发行导致以太坊净供应量减少超过700，000个。此外分析师表示，Glassnode首次交易的以太坊地址不断增加，证明了网络的健康采用。该报告还指出，第二季度活跃的以太坊验证者数量增加了15%。
On 18 July, Fuda Digital Assets, the world’s largest professional fund company, released the Second Quarter Signal Report 2023, which found that 47% of investors were expected to “exceed” Bitcoin by the Taiku. The reason behind the report’s prospect of an increase in the number of web-based destruction rates, “new address trends” and web-certifiers relative to the issuance of tokens was the increase in the number of web-certifiers. According to the report, net distribution since the merger in September 2022 had resulted in a reduction of more than 700,000 net supplies in the Taibang.
引用结束。
End of quote.
这一连串数字主要表现在以太坊供应量减少（七十万个）、交易地址增加，验证者数量增加。
This chain of figures is mainly reflected in the decline in the supply of Etheria (0.7 million), an increase in the number of transactional sites and an increase in the number of certifying officers.
最重要的，是百分之四十七的受访者预计以太坊会超越比特币。
Most importantly, 47 per cent of the respondents expected the Etherm to go beyond Bitcoin.
大家知道，数字货币的定价，尤其是空气币与准空气币，共识的因素较多（未来有投资价值的数字货币自然以投资价值为主）。
As you know, the pricing of digital currency, especially air and para-air currency, has more to do with consensus (the value of investment naturally dominates the value of future digital currencies with investment value).
空气币投资价值不大，而投机价值较强，投机价值，主要决定于共识，就是大家认为，这个数字货币能不能达到某个价位，或者该价位是低了还是高了，这是考虑其投机属性，与是否有这么高的投资价值没有关系。
The value of air currency investments is low, while the speculative value and the speculative value are largely determined by consensus, i.e. the perception that this number of currencies can reach a certain price, or that the price is low or high, considering their speculative characteristics, has nothing to do with the existence of such a high investment value.
如果大多数人认为这个品种会涨，那就必然会涨。
If most people think it's going to grow, it's going to.
当然，世界上目前的主要数字货币的定价，主要还是以投机为主，这也是数字货币早期的必然现象。
Of course, the pricing of the world's current major digital currencies, which is largely speculative, is also an early and inevitable feature of the digital currency.
世界数字货币高达数万种且不断有新的数字货币诞生，但是，可以说绝大多数数字货币没有生态支持，巨无霸应用更不可能诞生，所以，很少有投资价值，所有的定价主要还是取决于其投机价值。
There are tens of thousands of digital currencies in the world and new ones are emerging, but it can be said that the vast majority of digital currencies do not have ecological support and are less likely to be produced by mega-diverse applications, so there is little investment value, and all pricing depends largely on their speculative value.
要说投机价值，毫无疑问是比特币最高，因为，世界上第一只数字货币的桂冠戴在其头上。
There is no doubt that the speculative value is the highest in bitcoin, because the crown of the world's first digital currency is on its head.
但是，投机价值高，不等于一定会涨，还要看其投机价值有没有实现或者实现了多少。
However, the high value of speculation does not necessarily rise, depending on whether or how much it is realized.
比特币投机价值高，但现实中已经兑现了很大一部分，从最低价上来，比特币已经涨了八千万倍，绝对价格更是已经到了三万多，是最高价格的一半左右，在这种情况下，比特币要继续上涨，就需要更多的增量资金。
Bitcoin has a high speculative value, but a large part of it has been realized in reality. From the lowest price, bitcoin has increased by 80 million times, and in absolute terms by more than 30,000, or about half of the highest price, in which case more incremental capital is needed if Bitcoin is to continue to rise.
当然，不是说比特币不会涨，而是说比特币下一轮涨势可能比不上别的数字货币。
Of course, not that bitcoin won't rise, but that bitcoin's next upwards may not be comparable to other digital currencies.
而现在有百分之四十七的受访者认为，未来以太坊可能超越比特币，这是一个惊人的数字。
Forty-seven per cent of respondents now believe that the future of Ethio may go beyond Bitcoin, which is an amazing figure.
以投机为主的数字货币，讲的就是共识，不管你基本面如何，如果很多人认为你会涨，那就必然会涨，百分之四十七的人认为以太坊会超过比特币，剩下的半数里面也不一定全是支持比特币的，而且一旦以太坊有超越比特币的趋势（这里指涨幅，不是指价格），就会有更多的人抛弃比特币，转而追捧以太坊。当然，原来握有以太坊的人会更加惜售，潜在的买盘会推升以太坊。
A digital currency dominated by speculation is a consensus. Whatever your basics, if many people think you will rise, it will rise. Forty-seven per cent believe that the Taiteng will exceed Bitcoin, and that the remaining half will not necessarily be exclusively in support of Bitcoin, and once there is a trend beyond Bitcoin (i.e., not in price), more people will abandon Bitcoin and go after it. Of course, those who held it used to sell it will sell it more, and the potential for buying it will rise to it.
老实说，就算是受访者里面有百分之二十的人认为以太坊会超越比特币都是一个惊人的数字，可以肯定以太坊确实会超越比特币，何况是百分之四十七！
To be honest, even 20% of the respondents think that Ether's going to go beyond bitcoin is an amazing figure, and it's certainly going to go beyond bitcoin, and forty-seven!
所以，加上以太坊投资价值确实超越了比特币，百分之四十七这个数字已经决定了今后的趋势，以太坊的涨势必然会超越比特币！
So, with the value of the Etherton investment indeed surpassing Bitcoin, the figure of 47% has determined the future trend, and the rise of the Etherkom is bound to go beyond Bitcoin!
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