和大家分享两则最新的新闻。
Two recent news stories have been shared with you.
3月7日，香港上市公司美图发布公告称，公司已购买约4000万美元的BTC和ETH。对此，美图创始人蔡文胜表示，美图由此成为第一家购买BTC数字货币的香港上市公司以及全球第一家把ETH作为货币价值储备的上市公司。
On 7 March, Hong Kong listed companies announced that they had purchased about $40 million in BTC and ETH. In response, the founder of the map, Chai Wen Sheng, stated that it became the first Hong Kong listing company to purchase BTC digital currency and the first global listing company to use ETH as a reserve of monetary value.
本次牛市的发动机来自于去年欧美的机构投资者大幅买入比特币，尤其是以灰度和MicroStrategy为主。这些机构投资者主要选择比特币为买入目标，我认为主要还是因为比特币共识最高，流动性最好并且风险最低。
The engine of this cow market came from the massive purchase of Bitcoin by European and American institutional investors last year, especially with Greyscale and MicroStrategy. These investors mainly chose Bitcoin as their goal, and I think it is because Bitcoin has the highest consensus, the best liquidity, and the least risk.
但是在早前的文章中我曾经估计，这个状况未来会发生改变，以太坊的价值终究也会被机构投资者认同。虽然灰度也持有并买入以太坊，但以太坊并不是它主要的购入目标，并且灰度购入以太坊的动作形成不了示范效应。
But in earlier articles, I had estimated that the situation would change in the future, and that the value of Etherm would eventually be recognized by institutional investors. Although Greyscale also holds and buys into Etherm, Etherm is not its main acquisition target, and it does not have a demonstration effect.
分析：10月11日10年未动的1000枚比特币的转移过程与3月11日类似:20个在2010年挖出比特币的钱包在10月11日将总计1000枚比特币转移至一个新地址后，又通过一笔交易将800枚比特币平均转移至80个bc1开头的BECH32地址（每个地址10枚），另外还有200枚比特币转移至1NMtiuh开头的地址中。此后，这些比特币还经过多次转移。加密货币交易者KirillK.在Linkedin上表示，这与2020年3月11日发生的十年未动的1000枚比特币转账非常相似，具体为：1.都是发生在一个月的第11日；2.都转移了1000枚比特币；3.都是从多个P2SH地址汇集到一个新地址，再转移至多个BECH32地址，另外还都有200枚比特币的分拆。KirillK.表示，这可能代表这两千枚比特币的所有者是一个人。（链闻）[2020/10/15]
Analysis: The 10-year-old transfer of 1000 bitcoins on 11 October was similar to that of 11 March: 20 purses dug out of bitcoins in 2010 transferred a total of 1,000 bitcoins to a new address on 11 October, and another 800 bitcoins were transferred by a transaction to an average of 80 bitcoins at the beginning of bc1 (10 at each address) and 200 bitcoins were transferred to a new address at the beginning of 1 NMTiuh. These bitcoins were transferred several times thereafter. KirillK., an encrypted currency dealer on Linkedin, indicated that this was very similar to the 1000 bitcoins that had not been moved for 10 years on 11 March 2020.
而现在扛起抢购以太坊大旗的公司终于出现，并且令人意外的是中国公司。看到这则信息我既意外也不意外。
And now the company with the Ethio flag is finally on its way, and what is surprising is the Chinese company. I am neither surprised nor surprised to see this information.
分析：机构投资者对比特币兴趣正在下降:7月13日消息，独立投资管理公司Phi Deltalytics发布分析称，CME未平仓合约资金流量指数(CME Open Interest Money Flow Index)在六月下旬跌破30，是四个月来的最低水平。这表明，机构投资者正在失去对比特币的兴趣。Phi Deltalytics分析师指出该指数将在未来几个月持续下跌（Bitcoinist）[2020/7/13]
Analysis: The interest of institutional investors in bitcoin is declining: on 13 July, independent investment management firm Phi Deltalytics released an analysis that the CME Unsettled Contract Flow Index (CME Open Interest Money Free Index) fell by 30 in late June, the lowest level in four months. This suggests that institutional investors are losing interest in bitcoin.
意外的是想不到机构进场以太坊会这么快。我原本以为以太坊要被机构投资者认可估计要等到第二层扩展落地甚至2.0有重大进展。因为以目前以太坊的状况，很多机构投资者可能会担心它未来变数大，不敢进场。没想到中国公司大胆进场并且公开表示了对以太坊的看好，我完全认同美图公司在声明中对以太坊的看法。
Surprisingly, I thought that Ether was going to be accepted by institutional investors for an estimated second-tier expansion, or even 2.0, to make significant progress. Because in the current state of Ether, many institutional investors might be worried about its future variability and dare not come in.
分析：比特币隐私受限、集中式开采和缺乏可伸缩性等问题可转化为优势:加密货币分析师CryptoComicon最近提出了一系列理由，称人们不应该投资比特币，其中最突出的三个问题是隐私受限、集中式开采和缺乏可伸缩性。Cointelegraph分析称，这些要点也可以转化为BTC的优势。比特币网络缺乏隐私措施实际上改善了占主导地位的加密货币的形象；比特币的低可扩展性显示，当网络达到峰值时，交易变得昂贵，但它也可以鼓励第二层扩展；目前，中国矿商有两个明显的优势，一是廉价的电力，二是可以直接获得新的采矿设备。最终，更低的电价和更好地获得更新的采矿设备可能会推动全球采矿业在未来几年向中国以外的国家扩张，从而降低集中化水平。（Cointelegraph）[2020/4/17]
Analysis: Bitcoin privacy limitations, centralized mining, and lack of scalability can translate into advantages: CryptoComicon, an cryptographic currency analyst, has recently advanced a series of reasons that people should not invest in Bitcoin, the three most prominent of which are privacy restrictions, centralized mining, and lack of scalability. Cointellectual analysis suggests that these points can also translate into advantages for BTC. The lack of privacy measures in the Bitcoin network has actually improved the image of the dominant encrypted currency; the low expansion of Bitcoin suggests that transactions become expensive when the network peaks, but it can also encourage second-tier expansion; at present, Chinese miners have two distinct advantages, one of which is cheap electricity, and the other is direct access to new mining equipment. Ultimately, lower electricity prices and better access to up-to-date mining equipment may boost the expansion of the global mining industry beyond China in the coming years, thereby reducing concentration levels.
另一方面，我对此也不意外，原因是币圈的老玩家都知道，蔡文胜入局数字货币很早，早在2017年1CO大潮中，蔡文胜就开始以个人资金买入数字货币。所以今天他带领自己的上市公司买入数字货币的行为绝非冲动，而是早就经过了深思熟虑。
On the other hand, I am not surprised by this, because old players in the currency circle know that Chai Wen won the digital currency early in the year 2017, when he started buying the digital currency with personal funds. So today, he leads his own listed company to buy the digital currency, which is not impulsive, but has long been considered.
美图的举动带来的意义主要有以下几点：
The main points of significance arising from the movement of the map are the following:
1、对国内投资者，尤其是传统金融领域的投资者造成示范效应。这是继但斌买入比特币之后进一步将这种效应在传统金融圈内发酵。
1. A demonstration effect on domestic investors, especially in the traditional financial sector. This is further developed in the traditional financial circles after Bin bought bitcoin.
2、对国内海外上市的公司起示范效应，极有可能更多的国内海外上市公司会进场。
2. A demonstration effect on domestic companies listed abroad is highly likely to result in the entry of more domestic companies listed abroad.
3、给全球机构投资者带来示范效应。美图的动作一定会传导到海外，并影响海外投资者，促使他们重新审视以太坊的价值。
Three, with a demonstration effect on global institutional investors. The map’s actions must be transmitted overseas and affect overseas investors, prompting them to re-examine Ether’s values.
4、美图在这个时候发布的公报有可能会提前终结这次调整，让市场情绪再度发酵。
4. A communiqué issued by the United States dollar at this time is likely to bring the adjustment to an early end and allow the market mood to contract again.
以这个状况看，我认为比特币和以太坊的现价恐怕会是不少未来进场的机构投资者的成本价。我仍然认为对他们来说，他们的期望至少是1倍涨幅，所以比特币、以太坊未来的空间是可以看得到的。
In this situation, I think that the current prices of Bitcoin and Ether are likely to be the cost of many future institutional investors. I still think that for them, their expectations are at least one-fold higher, so that the future space of Bitcoin and Ether will be visible.
好久没有看市值排名，今天打开CMC一看，赫然发现Uniswap的市值已经跃居第8，并且超过了link。
It has been a long time since we had a market value ranking, and today we have opened the CMC and found that Uniswap's market value has leaped to the eighth place and exceeded its mark.
我认为这是牛市发展到现在的一个重要节点。
I think this is an important node for the growth of the cattle market to this day.
在早前的文章中，我多次估计，本轮前十名的排名会大幅洗牌，DeFi类代币会冲进前十。原来我估计可能Aave会最先进入，但想不到现在Uniswap抢得了头筹，第一个冲进前十。
In earlier articles, I have repeatedly estimated that the top ten rankings in this round will be shuffled, and DeFi-type tokens will rush into the top ten. I thought Aave might be the first to enter, but now Uniswap is the first to hit the top ten.
现在排名前十的币是：比特币、以太坊、USDT、BNB、ADA、波卡DOT、瑞波XRP、UNI、LTC、LINK。它们中XRP、LTC和ADA也很有可能被陆续挤出前十。
The top 10 currencies are: Bitcoin, Etheria, USDT, BNB, ADA, Poca Dot, Ripo XRP, UNI, LTC, LINK. There is also a real risk that XRP, LTC, and ADA will be pushed out of the top 10.
接下来的行情有可能会这么发展：在本次调整结束后，在比特币、以太坊的带领下，大盘再次向上，陆续有新的DeFi类代币冲进前十，本轮牛市渐渐进入中段；然后前20的排名洗牌，更多DeFi代币冲进前20，牛市进入高潮；最后市场情绪极度膨胀，比特币、以太坊带领整个大盘作最后一搏，达到巅峰。
This is likely to be the case with the following developments: after the adjustment was completed, the plate went up again, led by Bitcoin and Etheria, with a new DeFi sub-currency rushing into the top 10, and the city gradually entering the middle; the top 20 rankings were shuffled, with more DeFi sub-bills rushing into the top 20, and the city reached its peak; and the final market mood swelled, with Bitcoin and Taicha led the entire plate to the top.
当然上面的推演只是我个人的臆想，每个阶段什么时候到来，持续的时间有多久都是无法估计的。
Of course, it's just a personal assumption that when each phase arrives, it lasts for as long as it can be estimated.
不过至少到目前为止，这种种迹象都表明，本轮牛市接下来的戏份将很足，我们千万不要抛掉了筹码成为旁观者，要牢牢拿住筹码，成为这场大戏的一份子。
At least so far, however, these signs suggest that the next part of the city will be good enough, and we must not lose the leverage to become a bystander, hold it firmly and be part of the big show.
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