未來，中國內地金融市場的進一步開放，會有利於人民幣國際化的平穩推進。中國內地金融市場的進一步開放，使得人民幣作為投資貨幣的屬性更加顯著，這也就意味著在交易結算貨幣和投資貨幣屬性的基礎上，人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣的屬性也將進一步提升。在這一轉變過程中需要以下配套措施協同助力。
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; in the future, further opening of the financial market in China’s interior will be conducive to steady progress in the internationalization of the renminbi. The further opening of the financial market in China’s interior makes the renminbi’s property as an investment currency more visible, which means that the property of the renminbi as an international reserve will be further enhanced on the basis of trading in the currency of accounting and investment currency.
第一，以可控方式逐步實現人民幣資本項目的開放。到目前為止，中國內地國際收支平衡表中的大部分項目，已經基本可兌換或部分可兌換，但尚有一些最為重要的資本行為主體項目依然保持著嚴格的管制，主要涉及三個方面：一是外商投資及中國內地企業走出去在部分項目上需要批准﹔二是中國內地居民不能對外負債﹔三是中國內地資本市場尚未充分對外資開放。上述這些都是資本賬戶中的核心項目，不僅決定著資本流入流出的規模，而且影響著資本賬戶中其他項目的開放程度。近幾年，人民幣的跨境使用有了明顯進展，出現了資本項目可以人民幣進行結算的條件。人民幣資本項目可兌換有可能走一條獨特的路線，即依托香港等離岸人民幣中心，率先進行資本項目的本幣開放，讓本幣流動起來，然后再實現資本項目本幣對外幣的完全可兌換。
To date, most of the international balance sheets in China’s interior have been largely available for swaps or partial swaps, but some of the most important capital projects remain under strict regulation, mainly in three areas: foreign investment and the movement of Chinese domestic businesses out of some of the projects requires approval; Chinese domestic residents cannot pay off their debts; and Chinese domestic capital markets have not yet fully opened up to external resources. These are the core items of the capital account, not only the size of the capital inflows, but also the extent to which they affect other purposes in the capital account.
第二，與世界主要貨幣的國際化進程不同，未來人民幣融入國際貨幣體系可能需要在經常項目順差無法持續的背景下繼續推動。人民幣的投資貨幣屬性將更為突出。美元、日元國際化過程中均出現過輸出本幣資產，加大對發展中國家的投資援助，同時帶動本國企業、產品和服務“走出去”，加速本幣國際化的過程。
Second, unlike the process of internationalization of the world’s major currencies, the future integration of the renminbi into the international monetary system may need to continue in a context in which frequent project deficits are unsustainable. The investment of the renminbi will be more pronounced.
第三，應該為全球投資者建設符合國際規范的人民幣金融基礎設施，提升交易后托管清算和質押品管理服務的能力。鑒於中國內地現行的托管結算制度與國際通行的規則仍存在較大差異，可以考慮在香港建立符合國際慣例的人民幣金融基礎設施，並推進交易所債券市場的聯通，連同跨境人民幣托管及結算系統等設施的建設，為人民幣計價的國際及地區性債券提供相應的發行、托管和結算服務。
Third, global investors should be provided with financial infrastructure that conforms to international regulations, and enhances their capacity to host post-trading liquidation and pledge management services. Given that there are still significant differences between the current hosting system in China’s interior and the rules prevailing internationally, it may be possible to consider establishing an international currency financial infrastructure in Hong Kong that is consistent with international practice, and to move into the market for exchange bonds, linking with the construction of systems such as the cross-border People’s Currency Hosting and Accounting System, which provides the appropriate issuing, hosting, and accounting services for people’s dollar-denominated international and regional bonds.
第四，央行數字貨幣能給人民幣的國際化之路提供正向的推動力和超車的機會。建立一個貨幣制度的初衷不是使那些持有貨幣的人變得富有，而是讓交易變得便利，讓整個經濟體獲益。早先，我國開始運用區塊鏈技術發展在國內有影響力、新型的數字貨幣，央行成立了數字貨幣研究所，數字人民幣體系在堅持雙層運營、M0替代、可控匿名的前提下，完成了頂層設計、標准制定、功能研發、聯調測試等工作。未來數字貨幣必然會發展壯大，並有望推動人民幣國際化實現彎道超車。
Fourth, the central bank’s digital currency provides a positive boost and an opportunity to overcarriage the renminbi’s internationalization path. The idea of a currency system was not to make money rich for those who hold it, but to make transactions easier and benefit the economy as a whole.
科技無疑正在重塑全球金融體系，而央行數字貨幣作為變革重點之一，更是將眾多不可能變為可能。
Technology is indisputably reshaping the global financial system, and central banks’ digital currencies, as one of the main points of change, make it impossible for many people to change.
簡單而言，央行數字貨幣是指一國以電子形式發行的法定貨幣。有別於其他去中心化的虛擬及加密貨幣，央行數字貨幣的法定貨幣地位是得到官方認可的。現時全球約八成央行已就央行數字貨幣開展不同階段的探索及應用工作。作為眼下各國趨之若鹜及積極發展的對象，央行數字貨幣除可取代現鈔以避免在冠狀病毒疫情下進行實體接觸外，它更具備超乎我們想象的多項特點。
At this point, about 80% of the world’s central banks are already exploring and applying different stages of the central bank’s digital currency. As an example of current developments in countries, central banks’ digital currency, in addition to replacing cash in order to avoid physical contact under the coronary virus epidemic, is far more than we can imagine.
中國是著手研究央行數字貨幣的先行國家之一，並立項“數碼貨幣/電子支付”（DigitalCurrency/Electron-icPayment，簡稱DC/EP）以開展數字人民幣的調研工作。DC/EP是得到中國人民銀行信用完全支持的法定貨幣，並能與人民幣進行1︰1等值兌換。突破既有認知及想象的是，當從某個DC/EP錢包轉賬數字人民幣至另一DC/EP錢包時，支付端及接收端均無須連接上互聯網。
China is one of the leading countries in the study of central bank dollars, and has created a “digital currency/electronic payment” (DigitalCurrence/Electron-icPayment, short for DC/EP) to open up the development of a digital renminbi. DC/EP is a statutory currency that the People’s Bank of China certifies as fully supported by credit, and can be exchanged with the renminbi at the equivalent of 1.1. It is recognized and imagined that when the currency is transferred from a DC/EP wallet to another DC/EP wallet, neither the payment end nor the receiving end has the necessary connection to the Internet.
DC/EP的另一突破是讓沒有銀行戶口的民眾也可利用數字人民幣進行小額交易，從而實現普惠金融。現時中國內地仍有高達2億未曾擁有任何銀行賬戶的農村人口，DC/EP這一特性將有助政府更精准地向貧困階層發放財政援助，最終取得脫貧攻堅戰的全面勝利。
Another breakthrough for DC/EP is that people who do not have a bank account can make small transactions using the dollar to realize inclusive finance. At a time when there are still 200 million rural people in China who do not have any bank account, DC/EP is a feature that will enable the government to more precisely provide financial assistance to the poor and eventually win a full-scale victory against poverty.
此外，DC/EP實行可控匿名。這不單有助央行追蹤交易並打擊洗黑錢等非法活動，同時政策制定者亦能通過這項特性，實施更穩健的貨幣政策以及落實貫徹執行其他法規。
Moreover, DC/EP is controlled anonymous. This not only helps central banks track transactions and combat illegal activities such as money laundering, but also allows policymakers to apply more robust currency policies and enforce other laws.
中國內地已開始DC/EP的落地應用實際測試方案，先行在深圳、蘇州、雄安新區、成都及未來的冬奧場景進行內部封閉試點測試。隨著DC/EP的發展日趨成熟，香港有必要考慮如何把握這機遇，配合國家政策的同時，作好充分准備。便利銀行同業支付，擴展互聯互通市場，以至助力人民幣國際化均是DC/EP的潛在應用。DC/EP所帶來的發展機會固然讓人翹首以待，然而不可忽視的是，香港必須制定完善的監管法規，以及建立相關的金融基礎設施（例如風險管理系統），以配合DC/EP的迅速發展。
As DC/EP matures, Hong Kong needs to consider how to take advantage of this opportunity and be fully prepared at the same time as national policy. To facilitate bank-to-bank payments, expand the Internet market, and help the people to internationalize is a potential application of DC/EP. While the development opportunities offered by DC/EP are welcome, it is important that Hong Kong develop sound regulatory regulations and associated financial infrastructure (e.g. a risk management system) to complement the rapid development of DC/EP.
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