ETH合并套利实操复盘
ETH Merge Proficient Retrieval
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Disclaimer: This paper is intended to convey more market information and does not constitute any investment proposal.
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来源：Mirror
Source: Mirror
原文标题：项目经验复盘—ETH合并
Original title: Project Experience Retrieval - ETH Merge
万众瞩目的eth合并终于落幕了，**最大的感觉是——过程平淡，文艺点的话叫波澜不惊。**太不惊了，以至于所有前期准备工作思考的风生水起，结果屁事没有。但这并不妨碍我们赚钱，合并前后的无风险白p收益率整体还是不错的。看见前几天网上疯传合并时”如何一夜零撸20万刀“，没作者那么多本金， 要不为了引流我也把这篇文章改成”如何两周零撸35%“？
It's all over the place. ** The biggest feeling is that the process is flat, and the literature is so unfathomable. ** It's so unsurprising that all the pre-preparation thinking has come to nothing. This does not prevent us from making money, but the risk-free white paper before and after the merger is still good as a whole.
反正在这个历史大事件中，遍地都是无风险的套利可以做。零撸20w的技术含量很高，但是对于一般韭菜来说，几天几个点真的很简单，剩下的只是你的本金问题，因为只要你不是大佬，eth的深度可以满足你的一切需求。
There's no risk-free arbitrage everywhere in this big historical event. Zero-thirty-thirty-thirty-thirty technology is high, but a few days are really easy for ordinary pickles, and all that's left is your principal, because as long as you're not big, Eth's depth meets all your needs.
下面来说说，这两天到底我做了哪些，又见到了哪些机会。
Let me tell you what I've done and what opportunities I've seen over the past two days.
前菜—合并前期资金费
- Merge pre-financing
在合并前期，大部分人都能够想到的就是做空eth、买入现货套保去白p领空投糖果，所以可以预见的是要么eth期货价格偏低，要么eth资金费会偏离较大。因此，吃资金费是一条比较明确的路。从9月开始我就开始关注市场资金费动向，eth深度比较大，如果提前套保，资金费支付成本肯定是比较高的，**所以九月初期外部的资金费不算高但持续负数。既然持续负数，那就反向套保吃呗。**然后翻阅了下所有的dex、cex，找到一个资金费资金费持续高于外部的dex，在九月上旬前就已经持续200%+了，和外部资金费差价基本能保持在200%+，尤其是进入到7号以后持续在300%+了。所以接下来就很简单了：
In the pre-consolidation period, most people could think of doing empty-eths, buying off-the-shelf packages, and selling candy in whitep airspace, so it could be foreseen that either the prices for futures would be low, or the cost of money would be larger. Thus, it was clear that the cost of eating money was a relatively clear way. I began to focus on market capital movements, the depth of which was greater, and the cost of financing would be higher if the insurance policy was advanced, ** so the external cost was not high but negative at the beginning of September. ** If the negative number continued, then the negative number would be reversed.** Then I went over all the deex, cex, and found a deex that continued to be higher than the external cost, which had been 200 per cent + by late September, and the external cost differential would have remained essentially 200 +, especially after entering number 7, which was 300 +.
1）从eth800多刀反弹开始，一直搬砖赚的十几e，直接砸盘、合约做多，美美的裸吃资金费等915；
1) Starting with a rebound of more than eth 800 blades and moving more than a dozen pieces of bricks, directly smashing the plate, making a lot of contracts, beautiful naked food money, and so on, 915;
2）找个外部相对最低的dex，满仓套保吃资金费差价就是了。这时候就要归咎于那个波澜不惊了，为了防止币价巨幅波动，只开了4x杠杆，一天也就2-3个点，不然8-10x、两个礼拜不到，是不是更加美滋滋？
2) Find the lowest external dex, the difference between the cost and the cost of snags. This time, it's a shock. To prevent large currency fluctuations, only four x leverages, two to three points a day, or 8 to 10, less than two weeks, is it better?
资金费持续高于外部，最高800%+
Funding costs continue to be higher than external, up to 800 per cent +
但是可以想象，由于大部分人都会在即将合并时开始套保，所以合并前最后两天的资金费一定会异常惨烈。不过没关系，只要还有差价，哪怕吃个鱼尾也无所谓，至少这个赚钱方式太方便了，适合我这种懒人，躺着吃利息就行了。
But it is conceivable that the last two days of the merger will be extremely expensive, as most people will start to hedge at the time of the merger. But that's okay, as long as there's a price difference, even if it's a fish tail, at least it's too easy to make money for a lazy person like me, just lie down and enjoy interest.
副菜——合并空投准备
side dish -- combined drop readiness
就这样一直到了915上午，随着合并倒计时的临近，正戏即将开场了。合并倒计时的预计时间是下午两点半左右，正好过了ok等主要合约交易所的资金费结算时间（早上8点），同时顺利的话也会避开四点的结算时间，所以当天早上八点后套保成本是最合适的。除了手上的现货以外，抽出资金费的资金开始着手套保。
So, until 915 a.m., as the countdown to consolidation approaches, the play is about to begin. The countdown to consolidation is expected to take place around 2:30 p.m., just past the settlement time for the main contracts exchange, such as Ok (at 8 a.m.), and, if it works well, avoids the four-point settlement time, so the cost of hedging after 8 a.m. is most appropriate.
合并倒计时留念
Merge countdowns
这时需要再次分析下手头得到的关于空投的信息了，主要包括几点：
There is a need to re-analyse the information available on airdrops, including, inter alia, a number of points:
1.eth储存位置：
1.eth Storage Location:
考虑到交易所关键时刻关充提、而且ethw链未上线swap无法交易等问题， 所以为了分叉后能够尽快获得空投并完成交易，决定把eth充值到交易所应该是最稳妥的。
In view of the critical importance of the exchange and the fact that the ethw chain is unwieldy and swap cannot be traded,
2.主要交易所关于空投的最新消息。
2. Key exchange updates on airdrops.
下图是当时推特流传的几大交易所关于空投的信息，但其实看上去信息量很大，**有一个关键点一直没说，那就是快照时间。**很多人想当然的觉得快照时间应该是合并时间开始时，然而ok发布的消息并不如此，**ok的快照时间是——早上11点~**与此同时，币安的消息还是没有更新，我突然灵光一现，消息没变？上次他说的时候好像是快照时间是分叉时，**那是不是可以等11点ok快照以后立即提现到币安，一鱼多吃？答案是对、也不对。**一鱼多吃可以，但是提现是不行的，因为币安关了充值。 最简单的方法就是过了11点，ok马上砸盘，然后币安买现货。
The following is information on airdrops from some of the major exchanges that tweeped at the time, but it actually looks like it's a big amount of information ** one of the key points has never been said, that is, a snapshot of time.** Many people thought, of course, that the flash hour should be the beginning of the merger, but the news from Ok did not, **ok's snapshot time was -- 11 a.m.. ** Meanwhile, the news of the currency was still not updated.
当时几个主要交易所关于合并的消息
At that time, several major exchanges had news of the merger.
3.ethw价格
3.ethw price
合并前，提前上ethw的相对大点的交易所主要就是抹茶和gate，**关注他们的价格有助于计算合并获取空投的性价比。而且，这次抹茶竟然提前开了合约，也就是可以提前套保了~~**所以即使gate的价格持续高于抹茶，但都是单机游戏没意义，只有抹茶的价格才有参考意义。更重要的是，ethw原先占eth价格比例一直在1.8%左右，也就是你套保几个小时的潜在毛收益率约为1.8%。 但是在915当天，一直阴跌的ethw竟然拉盘了，最高拉到44，潜在毛收益率上升超过了2.5%，为这个趋势点个赞。
Before the merger, the relatively large exchange of pre-ethw was mainly tea and gate ** concerned that their prices would help calculate the value of combined airdrops. Moreover, the tea was contracted ahead of time, i.e. ~** so even if the price of gate continued to be higher than the price of tea, it would be meaningless, and only the price of tea would be relevant. More importantly, the price of the edew had been around 1.8%, i.e., your potential gross rate of return for a few hours was about 1.8%,
抹茶ethw合并前后价格走势
Price trends before and after teaethw merger
主菜——空投大戏
- Airdrop show
在厘清这些主要思路以后，就可以开始动手了。 过了八点开始陆续撤出资金费资金，在11点前准备好套保的eth，充值到交易所，等快照。
Once these main ideas are clear, we can start doing it. starts pulling out the funds at eight o'clock, prepping the eth by eleven o'clock, charging it to the exchange, waiting for a snapshot.
然后等11点砸盘eth，币安买现货。然而准备操作这步的时候，问题来了，如果真这么做，你们会发现，11点前币安的eth价格还是低于ok的，但是11点后币安的价格会大幅溢价，也就是这时候砸盘对冲会有磨损。所以最好的方法其实是在11点前就收币安的货。都已经allin了，钱哪儿来。这时候就需要杠杆啦，**提前提一部分u去币安，快照时间一过，第一时间买入现货，**这时候磨损是最小的。就这样顺利实现了双吃。
And then wait until 11 o'clock to hit the tableth and buy the cash. But when you're ready to do this, the problem arises, and if you do this, you'll find that the price of the pre-coins at 11 o'clock is still lower than that of the ok, but the price of the pre-coins at 11 o'clock will be significantly higher, that is, it will be worn out. So the best way is to collect the money before 11 o'clock. It's all over, where the money comes from. That's when you need to use leverage, ** to move to the coins, ** to buy the cash at 1 p.m. ** It's the least time.
**44u的ethw很香啊，根据套保eth就可以算出需要套保的量。**但是这里留了一个小败笔，一方面是不确定双吃到底能不能成功（虽然我觉得是大概率），另一方面我看着他在拉盘我竟然对ethw有了梦想，怕ethw突然爆拉，资金不够容易爆仓，所以才套保了一部分。。。事实证明还是图样图森破。
**44u's ethw is so good that it's possible to calculate the amount of insurance.** But there's a small loss here, on the one hand, it's not sure if the double food is going to work (though I think it's likely) and, on the other hand, I'm looking at him on a platter and I'm dreaming about ethw, fearing that the ethw will suddenly explode, and that the money won't explode. That's why it's part of it.
就这样，平稳度过了两点半的合并时期，进入到了下半场，这时候的市场盘面有两个比较明显的变化，**第一是eth价格仍然是波澜不惊，大方向上毫无变化；第二是各交易所价格开始大幅波动，因为大家都开始蠢蠢欲动的准备平仓了。**我也要开始平仓了，首先顺畅的砸盘eth，了结最近的搬砖利润。然后就是平仓套保合约了， 就在这时，神奇的一幕发生了，ok巨震，与币安差价巨大，平时双dex的差价几乎是不可能的，但是就在那个时候发生了，而且还是有利于平仓的那一幕，从下图可以发现，光平仓了结就可以产生1-2个点的利润差，疯狂平仓、平完了？继续开仓~这种差价是维持不了多久的，送钱干嘛不要，虽然这种状态只持续了几分钟，够了。
There were two more marked changes to the market floor after a two-and-a-half-point merger. ** First, the price of Eth was still in shock and there was no change in the direction; second, the exchange price was beginning to fluctuate significantly, because everyone was starting to be prepared to level down. ** I was also starting to level out, starting with a smooth break in the tableth and closing the nearest bricks. Then I was able to smooth out the silo contract, and at that point, there was an amazing scene, and there was an OK boom, and the price differential with the currency was huge , and it was almost impossible, but it was only a few minutes, enough.
币安（左）与ok（右）的价差
Difference between currency (left) and k (right)
甜点——ethw搬砖
dessert--ethw move bricks--
到这个时候，大家觉得是不是除了等着发放ethw空投然后砸盘或者平仓套保，合并大戏就结束了。no~还有餐后甜点。**ethw发货以后，ok、抹茶、gate都先后开放了充提和合约交易，现货、合约大混战，叠加充值速度缓慢，真的是搬砖天堂。仅仅开放交易一晚上，随便搬一会儿利润就有几千刀，我在社区里也提醒了兄弟姐妹刚上线的时候可以去搬砖玩。**唯一可惜的是，合并当天精神力过于集中，到第二天凌晨开放交易的时候已经没什么精神了，所以搬一会儿就睡觉去了，否则利润应该会更高。到这个时候，合并大戏基本才算基本落幕。
At this point, it is thought to be the end of the merger scene, in addition to waiting to release the ethw airdrop and then smash the plate or level the snag. ** There are desserts. **Ethw's delivery was followed by the opening of ups and contracts, cash, contract battles, slow build-up, and really moving the brick paradise. There are thousands of knives in the open trade one night, and I remind my brothers and sisters that they can move bricks when they get online.** The only pity is that the merger was too focused on the day that they opened the deal the following morning, so they moved to bed for a while, otherwise the profits should be higher.
ethw价差截图示例
Example of Ethw price differential
支线任务——那些想做但没做的
1.ethf 合并那天没有关注的东西，可能之前被宝二爷分叉给吸引了，压根就没注意etf，事后复盘的时候发现抹茶合并好像是一送二（ethw和etf同时送），瞬间拍断大腿。 Something that was unattended on the day of the merger may have been attracted to Master Bo fork before, without even paying any attention to the etf, and it appears in the subsequent retray that the combined tea was delivered in two (both ethw and etf) and that the thighs were cut in one instant. 2.eth/btc汇率对 这个从炒币角度来看是相对确定的事儿，社区有兄弟就靠简单的先做多eth/btc，再做空获利颇丰。但是就是因为他是炒币，与我习惯性搬砖白p的原则相悖，所以我没有去玩。而从事后诸葛的角度去看，其实eth/btc汇率其实在915前一周就开始拐头了，所以如果做波段的话，稍有不慎还是有风险的。 This is a relatively certain thing from the point of view of currency stowling, where brothers in the community make a lot of eth/btc first and then make a lot of money. But it is because he is stowling, contrary to the principle of my custom to move bricks, that I did not play. And from the point of view of the backwardness, the Eth/btc exchange rate actually turned around a week before 915, so it would be risky to do a banding. eth/btc汇率走势 Eth/btc Trends in exchange rates 3.eth期现差 这个其实还是比较确定、简单的，永续合约与近期的交割合约差1.5%以上，只要你有钱，撑几个小时这点毛利润就可以入账了~ It's still fairly certain, simple, that there's a 1.5% difference between a permanent contract and a recent contract, so as long as you have the money, you can keep the profit for a few hours. ok期现差 Ok current date difference 好了，这次的介绍就到这儿了，今年大家最期盼的年度大戏就这样落幕了。按照目前的宏观消息面变化，后面可能就是进一步的熊市了，但是对我们搬砖党来说，1u也是赚，白p就是好，有机会就赚、没机会就躺着，不亏钱就行。 Well, here's the presentation, and this is the end of the year's most desired annual show. As the current macroeconomy changes, the rest may be a further bear market, but for us to move bricks, one u is a profit, white p is a good one, you can make a profit, you can't get a chance, you can't get a chance, you can just lie down, you can't lose money. 责编：Lynn返回搜狐，查看更多 Entitled "Lynn
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