华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 陈锋 实习生 李欣雨 北京报道
Washington Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) journalist Chen Feng, intern Lee Xinyu, Beijing report
时隔10年，我国发布了第三个资本市场“国九条”。回顾历史，前两次“国九条”的发布均引发了A股市场的超级大牛市行情，分别催生出2005年至2007年和2014年至2015年两轮大牛市，上证指数分别攀升至6124点和5178点的历史高点。
Ten years later, our third capital market, the “Nine Rules of the Nation”, was published. Looking back at history, the first two launches of the “Nine Rules of the Nation” led to the emergence of the Super Bull Market in the A-share market, which generated two rounds of cattle from 2005 to 2007 and from 2014 to 2015, with a rise in the index to a historic high of 6124 points and 5178 points, respectively.
近期，A股市场一度冲上3100点，外资机构也纷纷开始看多中国资产。瑞银全球新兴市场股票首席策略师苏尼尔·蒂鲁马莱上调了MSCI中国指数的评级至超配，表明他对中国资本市场的积极判断。此外，高盛亚太首席股票策略师慕天辉和GS首席中国股票策略师刘劲津也在同一天表达了对A股的看好，建议“继续超配A股”。
In addition, Goldman Sachs Asia’s top stock strategist, Mu Tianhui, and GS’s top Chinese stock strategist, Liu Jinjin, also expressed their preference for A shares on the same day, suggesting that they “continue to match up with A’s shares.”
那么，新“国九条”推出后，股民期待的超级大牛市还有多远？二季度市场行情如何展开, 哪些主线值得关注？中信建投证券首席策略分析师陈果日前做客《华夏新闻会客厅》，针对以上热点问题作出专业解读。
So, how far did the stockholders expect the Super Bull City after the launch of the new nine articles? How did the market unfold in the second quarter, and which main lines of interest? Chen Go, the chief strategic analyst for China-China Xinjin investment securities, was a former guest in the Washington Press Room to make a professional reading of these hotspots.
新“国九条”发布，中长期慢牛可期
New "Nine Rules of the Nation" issued with medium- and long-term slow cows available at
本次出台的新“国九条”，是继2004年、2014年两个“国九条”之后，国务院再次出台针对资本市场高质量发展的指导性文件，意见共有九个部分，对严把发行上市准入关、加大退市监管力度、加强交易监管、大力推动中长期资金入市等九大方面提出了要求。
This new "Nine Nations", following two "Nine Nations" in 2004 and 2014, the State Council has again issued a nine-part guidance document on high-quality capital market development, which calls for strict market access, stronger de-market regulation, stronger trade regulation and a strong promotion of medium- and long-term capital entry.
陈果指出，新“国九条”旨在应对A股市场近年来的低迷表现，改善投资者回报，并应对经济环境的挑战。与前两次“国九条”相比，本次文件更强调监管的严格性和股东权益的深化。
Chen Gou points out that the new “Nine Nations” aims to address the low performance of the A share market in recent years, improve investor returns, and meet the challenges of the economic environment. This paper places greater emphasis on regulatory rigour and the deepening of shareholder interests than the first two “Nine Nations.”
他表示，短期内，政策可能对部分未以股东利益最大化为目标的公司构成压力，甚至增加退市风险。从中期看，政策旨在优化资本配置，奖励符合股东利益的公司，并有望提升A股市场的可投资性，吸引增量资金。市场资金可能会重新配置，更加青睐有稳定盈利、现金流且愿意分红的公司。
In the short term, he said, policies could put pressure on some companies that did not aim to maximize shareholder benefits, or even increase the risk of de-marketing. In the medium term, policies were aimed at optimizing capital allocation, rewarding companies that were in the shareholder’s interest, and were expected to enhance the investmentability of the A-share market and attract incremental capital.
与2014年的金融自由化背景及2004年的机制问题不同，本次“国九条”强调严监管，以稳中求进为原则。政策预计市场不会快速上涨，而是力求平稳，避免过度刺激，同时维持严格的金融监管，防范市场波动。
Unlike financial liberalization in 2014 and institutional issues in 2004, this “Nine” emphasizes strict regulation based on the principle of stability and progress. Policies do not expect markets to rise rapidly, but rather seek to stabilize and avoid excessive stimulus, while maintaining strict financial regulations to protect against market volatility.
尽管当前全球经济形势复杂，但陈果认为中国股市在全球市场中处于相对低位，人民币资产配置中股市具有相对优势。他指出，中长期资金入市、上市公司提升财务数据可信性、推进分红回购等因素都将有助于市场估值改善。
Despite the complexity of the current global economic situation, Chen Gou believes that China’s stock market is relatively low in the global market, and that the RMB stock market has a comparative advantage in asset allocation. He notes that medium- and long-term capital entry, increased credibility of financial data by listed companies, and promotion of red repurchases will all contribute to improved market valuations.
因此，从中期来看，市场呈现慢牛走势的概率较大。投资者应关注符合股东利益、有稳定盈利和现金流的公司，并关注政策对资本配置的优化作用。虽然短期内市场可能面临一些调整，但长期来看，政策对A股市场的正面影响值得期待。
Investors should focus on firms that serve shareholders’ interests, have stable profits and cash flows, and on the optimal impact of policies on capital allocation. While markets may face some adjustments in the short term, the positive impact of policies on the A share market in the long run is to be expected.
复盘节后行情：由估值修复到结构性亮点频出
repertoire: from valuation to structural bright spots more frequently
春节以来，市场行情呈现出新的特征和趋势。陈果认为，这主要基于两个方面的因素。首先，市场治理机制的新变化、资本市场改革以及供求关系的改善预期，如融资减少、IPO和减持调整，为市场估值的修复提供了基础。同时，流动性危机的缓解也为市场带来了支撑。
Since Spring Day, market dynamics have shown new characteristics and trends. Chen Gou believes that this is largely based on two factors. First, new changes in market governance mechanisms, capital market reforms, and improved expectations of supply-demand relationships, such as reduced financing, IPOs, and retrenchment adjustments, provide the basis for the restoration of market valuations.
其次，盈利预期的修复成为市场的重要推动力。一季度GDP增速好于预期，部分行业和公司的盈利及景气预期改善，特别是出口和出海企业盈利超预期。全球经济表现稳健，中国公司的核心竞争力增强，市场份额上升，为出海提供了良好机会。
Second, the recovery of profit expectations has become an important driving force in the market. GDP has grown faster than expected in a quarter, and some industries and firms are expected to improve their profitability and climate, especially in the case of exports and offshore firms.
此外，出行和消费相关领域的恢复势头明显，科技类公司维持了高景气。央国企和资源相关板块也受益于全球经济需求。总体来看，市场先经历了估值修复，随后盈利和景气改善成为亮点。
In addition, the recovery in travel- and consumption-related areas is evident, with technology-related companies maintaining a high profile. US firms and resource-related plates also benefit from global economic demand.
然而，当前整体经济恢复速度不快，消费扩散需要时间，海外市场波动和地缘政治风险可能带来市场震荡。因此，市场短期面临挑战，但结构性亮点仍然存在。
However, the economy as a whole is currently recovering at a slow pace, consumption is spreading over time, and fluctuations in overseas markets and geopolitical risks may cause market shocks. As a result, markets face short-term challenges, but structural bright spots remain.
对于美国的经济情况，宏观基因数据和CPI等指标依然强劲。陈果认为美联储的决策面临两难境地，既要控制通胀又要管理预期。疫情后的激进政策导致当前经济环境复杂，退出和通胀放缓难度增大。全球供应链扰动和地缘政治环境也对通胀产生影响。在此背景下，联储需维持通胀控制目标，市场需接受现实。加息概率较低，降息需等待时机。
In the US, macrogenetic data and indicators such as CPI remain strong. Chen Gou sees the Fed’s decision-making dilemma as one of controlling inflation and managing expectations.
此外，陈果指出，对于中国而言，货币政策需兼顾多方面因素。当前外因并非正面因素，市场需关注内因。因此投资者应谨慎分析市场趋势，把握结构性亮点，同时注意风险控制和资金管理。
In addition, Chen Gou pointed out that, for China, monetary policy needs to be balanced with multiple factors. The current external causes are not positive, and the market needs to focus on internal factors. Investors should therefore carefully analyse market trends and grasp structural bright spots, while paying attention to risk control and financial management.
二季度市场先抑后扬，投资者需谨慎配置
陈果对二季度市场走势进行了深入剖析，他预测市场将呈现先抑后扬的态势，整体中性偏平稳，但海外因素可能带来负面影响。随着下半年政策空间增大，市场环境有望改善。因此，他建议投资者短期内保持谨慎，不宜过于激进，应等待经济实质恢复后再作决策。
Chen Gu, who conducted an in-depth analysis of the market trends of the second quarter, predicted that the market would show a pre-depressive and post-optimal trend, with a neutral overall balance, but with the possible negative impact of overseas factors. With increased policy space in the second half of the year, the market environment was expected to improve. He therefore suggested that investors should remain cautious in the short term, should not be too aggressive, and should wait for the recovery of economic substance before making decisions.
在投资策略上，陈果主张以稳健为主，盈利修复需要时间验证。他特别指出，高股息股票虽然具有配置吸引力，但达到一定程度后可能产生震荡和分化，更适合长期配置资金。题材类股票需警惕波动风险，AI等大主题仍值得关注。
In terms of investment strategy, Chen Gou argued for robustness, and that profit restoration would take time to prove. He noted, in particular, that while high-value equities were attractive for configuration, they could cause shock and fragmentation when they reached a certain level, better suited to long-term allocation of funds.
行业轮动和基本面支撑是陈果关注的重点。他认为，经过春季行情的多次轮动，高景气行业相对有限，因此投资者应关注具有基本面支撑、低估值且有红利潜力的大盘龙头股票。题材股投资风险较大，投资者应谨慎对待。
Industry rotations and fundamentals are the focus of Chen’s attention. He argues that, after many spring swings, high-profile industries are relatively limited, and investors should therefore focus on large, low-valued, and dividend-potential conglomerates.
高股息策略需动态调整，陈果建议投资者关注盈利稳定、基本面良好的企业。核心指数和头部大型公司适合底仓配置，投资者在选择时应综合考虑行业、公司基本面和股息率等因素。
High dividends strategies need to be dynamically adjusted, with Chen Gou advising investors to focus on businesses with stable profits and good fundamentals. Core indices and large-scale companies are suitable for bottom-silo configuration, and investors should choose to take into account factors such as industry, company fundamentals, and dividends rates.
针对银行股创新高现象，陈果提醒投资者需谨慎分析，创新高股票并非无风险。在当前市场资产荒的背景下，银行股虽受欢迎，但投资者需考虑净息差压力、盈利波动和资产质量等因素。此外，央企市值管理和分红率提升也是潜在的投资机会。
In response to the high level of innovation in bank shares, Chen Ku reminded investors of the need for careful analysis that innovation in high equities is not risk-free. In the current context of market asset scarcity, banks’ shares are welcome, but investors need to consider such factors as net interest differential pressure, profit fluctuations, and asset quality.
对于房地产行业，陈果认为今年可能出现新发展模式的雏形，但市场需重新评估企业情况。短期内地产股投资需谨慎。他建议投资者合理配置资产，保持合理预期回报率，采用科学投资方法，避免投机行为。
With regard to the real estate sector, Chen Gou believes that a new development model may emerge this year, but the market needs to reassess the business situation.
责任编辑：麻晓超 主编：夏申茶
Editor-in-charge: & nbsp; Editor-in-Chief: Chashen Tea
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