对于此分析，我们将检视REP通证，它为 Augur 分布式应用程序（DApp）赋能。 我们将REP定义为加密资产，并检查使其独特的属性，同时分析 DApp 的功能，它的生态系统，潜在市场及其独特风险。 通过这样做，我们将形成一个投资论文，这使得我们为REP令牌设定目标价格。 我们将提供熊市，常规和牛市的分析结果。 我们希望完成一些事情。 首先，我们希望为好奇的个人和投资者创作一个简洁易懂的Augur和REP的概述。 其次，我们希望建立一些我们认为有助于区分许多不同类型加密资产的术语。 最后，我们希望从投资者的角度提供对REP通证的正当评估，并估计该通证的未来价值。
In doing so, we will form an investment paper that will allow us to set the target price for the REP medals. We will provide the results of the analysis of Bear, Conventional, and Cattle.
Augur是一个建立在以太坊区块链之上的分布式预测市场。 REP是Augur的原生通证，为Augur应用程序提供支持。 REP是在以太坊上发布的ERC20通证。
Augur is a distributed forecast market based on the Etherm block chain. REP is an original Agur translator that supports the Augur application. REP is an Ether-based ERC20 translator.
预测市场是允许个人根据事件的结果进行交易的市场。 准确预测结果的人会因预测而获得奖励，而那些预测不准确的人则会失去赌注。 因此，存在对准确预测结果的经济激励。 这使得预测更准确，因为糟糕的预测会使用户付出代价。 此外，具有有效信息的用户具有在这些市场中进行交易的经济激励。 他们如果这么做了，市场就会吸收他们的信息（以价格和数量的形式），这增加了市场预测的准确性。 在预测市场中，结果的估值为0％至100％，各种结果每注的价格反映了该结果的预测概率。
Moreover, users with valid information have economic incentives to trade in these markets. If they do so, the market will absorb their information (in prices and quantities), which increases the accuracy of market forecasts.
一个简单的例子是总统选举。 如果共和党候选人的每注交易价格为0.65美元，民主党候选人的每注交易价格为0.34美元，独立候选人的每注交易价格为0.01美元，那么市场预测共和党候选人将获胜的可能性为65％，民主党获胜的可能性为34%，独立人士获胜的几率为1％。 一旦选举结果公布，获胜候选人的股票价值将为1.00美元，所有失败候选人的股票价值将为0美元。 虽然给定的市场可能有多个潜在的结果，但个人投注的结果是二元的。 投资者将失去所有赌注，或赢得赌注和1.00美元之间的差额。
The market predicts that Republican candidates will win 65%, Democrats 34%, and independents 1%. Once the election results are announced, the winning candidate’s equity will be 1.00 US dollars, and all failed candidates will be zero dollars.
Augur的目的是使金融民主化和分散化。 Augur正在通过创建一个全球性，无摩擦且高度流动的预测市场来实现这一目标。 虽然预测市场的想法并不新鲜，但过去的模型由于各种原因在很大程度上是无效的。 由于他们与赌博有关，他们传统上受到监管机构的严格审查，他们必须在他们所在司法管辖区的法律范围内运作。 这导致进入门槛高，限制了潜在资本和知识库，导致市场效率低下。
The idea of predicting markets is not new, but the models of the past are largely ineffective for a variety of reasons. As they are associated with gambling, they have traditionally been subjected to scrutiny by regulators, and they must operate within the laws of their jurisdictions.
Augur旨在通过建立一个完全分布式的新型预测市场来改善这些问题。 这将完成几件事：
Augur aims to improve these issues by creating a new, fully distributed forecast market, which will accomplish a few things:
这意味着政府无法有效地规范市场，因为它是分散的，没有单一的失败点。
This means that the Government cannot effectively regulate the market because it is fragmented and has no single point of failure.
这意味着市场将在全球范围内可用，并且进入门槛较低。 这将允许平台具有更大的用户群以及他们带来的更多信息，这反过来将使预测更准确。
This means that markets will be available on a global scale, with lower entry thresholds, which will allow the platform to have a larger user base and the additional information they bring, which in turn will make projections more accurate.
它允许设计提供关键的安全措施（分布式的解决方案，稍后将讨论）。
It allows the design to provide critical security measures (distributed solutions, to be discussed later).
集中预测市场可能会被操纵，因为有一个权威机构报告事件的结果。 如果运行预测市场的公司没有报告正确的结果，那么即使那些准确预测的人也无法从他们的预测中获利。 Augur分散化了这一报告责任，使市场抵制操纵。 最后，由于以太坊区块链是全球性且不篡改的，因此来自这些市场的信息是完全开放，并且可供世界各地的任何人访问的，同时这些信息无法被审查或操纵。
Augur diffused this reporting responsibility, allowing markets to resist manipulation. And, since the Ether block chain is global and unaltered, information from these markets is completely open, accessible to anyone around the world, and cannot be censored or manipulated.
Augur面临的主要挑战是建立一个准确、及时、低成本和分布式的事件报告系统。 这就是REP通证变得相关的地方。 REP是Augur协议的本机令牌，它对平台的功能至关重要。
The main challenge for Augur is to establish an accurate, timely, low-cost and distributed incident reporting system, which is where the REP pass becomes relevant.
每个REP通证都为其持有人赋予报告事件的结果的权利，并鼓励这么做，或者由于未能未能正确报告结果而面临小额经济处罚。 准确报告的人员收到一定比例的网络费用，而报告不准确的人员将失去一些REP。 与共识结果不同的REP持有人在每个报告期内最多可能损失其REP的20％。 关于事件结果的共识由报告的多数结果决定。 理性的REP持有者将假设几乎所有其他持有人都会报告实际发生的结果，因此也会有强烈的动机来准确地报告。
Each REP certificate gives its holder the right to report on the outcome of an incident and encourages it to do so, or faces a small financial penalty for failing to report the results correctly. Those who accurately report receive a certain percentage of the cost of the network, while those who report inaccurately lose some REP.
如果共和党候选人实际赢得选举，每个REP持有人都会预期其他REP持有人报告共和党候选人获胜。 如果个别REP持有人报告民主党获胜，那么他们将失去他们的一些REP，除非大多数REP持有人也报告民主党获胜。 而这将要求在该市场上投票的51％以上的REP持有者中存在全球性的广泛的勾结。 这极不可能。即使错误地发生，Augur也有几个内置的逆止器，可以解决分歧。
If Republican candidates actually win the election, each of the RE’s holders is expected to report the other REP holders to Republican candidates. If individual REP’s holders report the Democratic Party’s victory, they will lose some of their REPs, unless the majority of the REP’s holders report the Democratic Party’s victory.
Augur还为任何对系统机制和争议方案感兴趣的人提供了详细的常见问题解答。 核心开发团队继续尝试该系统的细节。 最新的信息可以在 Augur Stack Exchange上找到。
Augur also provides detailed answers to frequently asked questions from anyone interested in system mechanisms and dispute programs. The core development team continues to try the details of the system.
Augur 分布式预测市场应用中最成熟的应用。 几项不同的研究证明了这种预测市场优于传统事件结果预测的方法。 通过将“群体智慧”的概念与鼓励准确预测并阻止虚假预测或信号传递的经济激励相结合，预测市场能够获得关于未来事件的更准确信息。 这种长期影响是深远的。 总体而言，分布式预测市场不仅可以提供有关未来事件发生可能性的社会最佳信息，还可以使几乎任何人参与到这些金融市场中。 这种扩大了的全球智力池增加了预测的准确性，创造了一个自我实现的良性循环。
By combining the concept of “group wisdom” with economic incentives that encourage accurate predictions and discourage false predictions or signal transmissions, predicting that markets can obtain more accurate information about future events. This long-term impact is far-reaching.
我们认为预测市场是最引人注目的分布式应用类型之一。 权力下放不仅减轻了现有预测市场模型的一些固有问题，而且通过建立进入门槛较低的全球流动性池，实际上首次使预测市场真正可行。
We believe that forecasting markets is one of the most striking types of distributed applications. Decentralization not only alleviates some of the inherent problems of existing predictive market models, but, for the first time, makes forecasting markets truly viable through the creation of global liquidity pools with lower thresholds.
虽然目前的预测市场主要用作政治和体育赛事的投注平台，但我们设想像Augur这样的平台能够带来全新的可能性。例如，一个人可以创建一个市场来预测飓风在给定时间范围内撞击某个区域的概率。该信息可用于确定该地区房屋保险费的价格。此外，居住在该地区的人们可以使用这些信息来投资以对冲这种风险。预测市场不仅提供有关未来的优质信息，还允许用户利用这些信息来对冲预测结果。我们认为这些只是分布式预测市场能够实现的全新可能性中的一小部分。我们预测Augur将大大超过现有预测市场的当前市场规模，因为分布式预测市场的创建本身将扩大整个可寻址市场。
While the current forecast market is mainly used as a platform for investment in political and sporting events, we envisage that a platform such as Augur can offer entirely new possibilities. For example, a person can create a market to predict the probability of hurricanes hitting a region within a given time frame. This information can be used to determine the price of housing insurance premiums in the region. Moreover, people living in the region can use this information to hedge this risk.
因为作为资产类别的“加密资产”本质上是多样化的，所以尝试具体定义每个资产是很重要的。 有许多不同的加密协议与底层通证。 每个特定的加密资产具有独特的属性，必须根据具体情况进行检查，以尝试确定估值。
Since “encrypted assets” as asset classes are inherently diverse, it is important to try to define each asset specifically. There are many different encryption protocols and bottom hyphens.
REP是第二层加密资产。 这指的是REP通证是在以太坊区块链上发行的而不是在它自己的区块链上发行的。 区别这一点很重要。 另一种表达方式如下：第一层加密资产是协议级通证，如以太坊和比特币。 像REP这样的第二层加密资产是在给定协议之上构建的应用程序级通证。 这种区别很重要，因为Augur作为面向用户的应用程序，它的成功将与以太坊的成功直接相关。 这会在稍后的部分中进一步探讨。
REP is a second-tier encryption asset. This means that the REP pass was issued on the Etherm block chain, rather than on its own block chain. It is important to distinguish.
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另一个重要的区别是REP是我们所谓的“加密许可证”，类似于其他许可证，使你有权进行工作以换取补偿（例如：美容学校执照，医疗执照等）。 有很多不同类型的加密许可证，每个都有唯一的权限和补偿形式。 这些资产专门用于激励人们执行使网络运行所必需的任务，因此不是最优的被动投资。
Another important difference is that the REP is what we call an “encrypted licence” similar to other licences, which entitles you to work in exchange for compensation (e.g. beauty school licence, medical licence, etc.). There are many different types of encryption licences, each with its sole authority and form of compensation.
与所有加密资产一样，REP旨在激励特定于单个网络的特定行为（在本例中为Augur预测市场）。 因此，它具有其他加密资产可能无法共享的独特特征。 我们确定了以下内容：
Like all encrypted assets, the REP is designed to stimulate specific behaviour specific to individual networks (in this case, the forecast market for Augur), so it has unique features that may not be shared by other encrypted assets. We have identified the following:
仅有11,000,000 REP。 它们在以太坊区块链上是可替代的，可分割的，可转移的。
There are only 11,000,000 REPs, which are interchangeable, severable and transferable on the Etherm block chain.
报告市场结果的REP持有者有权收取报告费，并按活跃的REP持有人的比例分摊。
REP holders who report market results have the right to charge a reporting fee and share it in proportion to the active REP holders.
REP持有人必须主动选择在特定时间窗口内报告市场结果。 如果他们选择加入，他们必须报告结果，并为他们的工作赚取费用。 如果他们不选择加入，他们将不会收到在该时间窗口内产生的任何费用。
If they choose to join, they must report the results and earn money for their work, and if they do not choose to join, they will not receive any costs incurred in that window.
REP协议使REP持有人有权对未来的软件更新进行投票，投票权与其股权成正比（这意味着控制权溢价）。
The REP agreement gives the REP holder the right to vote for future software upgrades, and the right to vote is proportional to his or her equity (which means a control premium).
在这些属性中，与估值最相关的是赚取费用的能力。 REP具有内置的直接现金流激励。 这将是我们价格分析的重点。 但是，另外两个属性值得注意：
Of these attributes, the most relevant to the valuation is the ability to earn money. REP has built-in direct cash flow incentives. This will be the focus of our price analysis.
由于REP持有者可以决定何时为系统工作（通过选择在特定时间窗口内工作），分配费用的REP持有者的数量将随时间而变化。 选择在特定窗口工作的报告者越少，每个活跃的报告者将获得的费用就越多，因为费用按比例分配给活跃的报告者。
As the REP holder can decide when to work for the system (by choosing to work in a given window at a given time), the number of REP holders will vary over time, and the smaller the reporter chooses to work in a particular window, the more the cost each active reporter will receive, as the cost will be proportional to the active reporter.
REP通证作为治理机制的能力使其具有控制权。 这意味着REP通证的价值不仅仅在于其现金流激励，还应体现它对治理的影响。 每个REP通证都赋予其所有者对平台的升级、更新和改进进行投票的权利。
This means that the value of the REP pass is not only its cash flow incentive, but also its impact on governance. Each REP certificate gives its owner the right to vote for upgrading, updating, and improving the platform.
虽然特定市场中的市场创造者和交易者不需要拥有REP来使用Augur平台，但使用Augur网络的人将希望对其未来发展产生影响。 由于软件的更新将影响任何用户在市场上赚钱的能力，因此这些用户拥有购买REP以获得其投票权的激励。 随着网络容量的增加，在平台的未来设计中拥有发言权的价值也在增加。由于这种控制溢价，REP可能总是以其现金流量隐含值的较高倍数进行交易，虽然很难为这个特定的用途指定精确的倍数。
While market creators and traders in a given market do not need a REP to use the Augur platform, users of the Augur network would like to have an impact on their future development. Since software upgrades will affect the ability of any user to make money in the market, these users have incentives to buy the REP to gain their right to vote.
我们确定了四个主要风险：
We have identified four main risks:
1. 平台风险
1. Platform risk
2. 可扩展性
2. Extendability
3. 对稳定币的需求
3. Demand for a stable currency
4. 结构成本
4. Structural costs
作为第二层加密资产，REP本质上与其第一层协议，以太坊，相关联的。 如果不去切换区块链，Augur只有在以太坊也能成功的情况下才能成功。 Augur的安全性和可扩展性取决于以太坊解决这些问题。 如果严重的安全漏洞影响以太坊，Augur可能也会面临风险。 同样，如果以太坊无法找到扩展其基础设施的方法以允许数十或数百亿的并发交易，那么Augur的潜力将受到限制。
As a second-tier encryption asset, the REP is essentially linked to its first-tier agreement, the Taiwan. If the block chain is not changed, Augur will succeed only if Ether succeeds.
可扩展性问题与平台风险密切相关，但值得进一步详细说明。 虽然Augur的潜在市场巨大，但其进入这样的一个市场需要以太坊的交易容量规模提高几个数量级。 目前，以太坊网络ETH的TPS大约为15笔/秒，对ERC20令牌的TPS大约位7笔/秒。 如下图所示，当需求特别高时，以太坊已经经历了网络堵塞的交易水平。 现在，假设许多高级DApp都并行运行，你可以看到为什么以太坊在当前状态下根本无法支持此类活动。?
The problem of scalability is closely related to platform risks, but it is worth further elaboration. Although Augur’s potential market is huge, its entry into such a market requires several orders of magnitude in terms of the size of its trading capacity.
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虽然Augur的市场和支出最初将以ETH计价，但这些市场最终需要以波动较小的资产计价。 ETH的波动性太高，ETH价格的大幅波动可能会对预测市场表现产生不利影响。 以美元、欧元或其他更稳定的货币计价市场和支出的能力是绝对必要的。 这不仅需要防止价格波动，还需要吸引可能被ETH计价市场混淆的外部用户。 Augur核心团队已经承认这是一个主要的瓶颈，但似乎非常看好MakerDAO项目可能解决这个问题。
The ability to price markets and expenditures in dollars, euros, or other more stable currencies is absolutely necessary. This requires not only to prevent price volatility, but also to attract external users who may be confused by the ETH’s price markets.
使用集中数据源（例如Oraclize或RealityKeys）来解析预测市场可能在很大程度上抵消了对诸如Augur等网络中报告者的需求。 无论是通过使用自动数据源还是利用网络的分布式oracle功能来解决市场问题，Augur网络都会收取费用。 这在结构上比潜在的竞争对手更昂贵。
The use of centralized data sources (e.g. Oraclize or RealityKeys) to interpret predictive markets may largely offset the demand for reporters in networks such as Augur. Whether to solve market problems by using automated data sources or the distributed oracle function of the network, the Augur network will charge fees.
出于风险评估的目的，可以同时检查这两个问题。 任何第二层加密资产都将面临平台风险。 由于几乎所有正在建立的分布式预测市场都是在智能合约平台之上进行的，因此这是他们共同的风险。 如果一个预测市场建立自己的区块链，它可能远不如在智能合约平台上建立更安全（由于工作证明和股权证明共识算法的性质）。 因此，实施为第二层资产实际上是一个优势。
Since almost all of the distributed forecast markets that are being established are based on smart contract platforms, this is a shared risk. If a predicting market establishes its own block chain, it may be far less secure than creating a smart contract platform (because of the nature of work certification and equity certification consensus algorithms).
目前，以太坊是迄今为止最大、最成熟、最安全、最值得信赖的智能合约平台。 以太坊近年来经历了巨大的发展，显然是行业的领导者。 随着2018年第一季度的发布，我们预计Augur将成为第一个推出的重要分布式预测市场。
At present, it is the largest, most mature, safe, and most trusted platform for intellectual contracts to date. It has developed dramatically in recent years, apparently as a leader in the industry.
尽管如此，Augur还是面临着受到以太坊当前可扩展性挑战限制的真正瓶颈。 如果以太坊的交易容量不能扩展五到六个数量级，那么Augur根本不能用作面向用户的应用程序。 因此核心问题变成了——以太坊会在另一个具有更大可扩展性的智能合约平台崛起前之前找到一种扩展方式吗？ 以太坊的核心研发团队在这方面取得了稳步进展，我们可能还需要不到一年的时间从工作量证明转为股权证明，这至少会使目前的吞吐量翻倍。
However, Augur faces a real bottleneck limited by the current Ether’s expansionary challenge. If the Ether’s trading capacity does not extend to five to six orders of magnitude, Augur simply cannot be used as a user-oriented application.
研究继续取得进展，如分片、状态通道和最近公布的 Plasma。 虽然其他平台如EOS和Tezos在理论上比以太坊更具可扩展性，但它们远没有那么成熟和并且也未经证实。
Research continues to make progress, such as fragments, state lanes, and recently published Plasma. While other platforms, such as EOS and Tezos, are theoretically more expansive than Etheria, they are far less mature and unproven.
其他杰出智能合约平台崛起带来的效应难以预测。 如果另一个智能合约平台在安全性或可扩展性方面超过以太坊，那么Augur核心开发团队可能会将目标转移到新平台上。 风险只会来自建立在新平台上的竞争预测市场，特别是那些在Augur转移之前先创建的预测市场。
If another smart contract platform outpaces Ether in terms of security or scalability, the Augur core development team may shift its objectives to a new platform. The risk will come only from a competitive predictor market built on a new platform, especially one created before Augur moves.
我们认识到Augur 预测市场只有通过用稳定的加密资产，特别是与法定货币挂钩的，来支撑，才能发挥其全部潜力。 寻找一个完全安全且完全去中心化的稳定币是推动整个加密社区的动力，因为它代表了可被广泛采用的非常重要的桥梁。 加密生态系统正在大力投资创建这样一个稳定的货币。 我们完全希望在12个月内看到可持续的稳定币解决方案。
We recognize that Augur predicts that the market can realize its full potential only if it is supported by stable encrypted assets, especially legal currencies. Finding a fully secure and completely decentralized currency is the driving force behind the entire encryption community, as it represents a very important bridge that can be widely used.
MakerDAO项目（建立在以太坊生态系统内）在这方面取得了最大进展，而Augur首席开发人员已经表示有意在Maker稳定币可用时立即整合它们。 我们相信在未来几年内会出现某种形式的稳定币，并且它在哪个平台上创建可能无关紧要。 所有其他平台都将实施相同的机制，从而在所有智能合约区块链中形成稳健的稳定币生态系统。
The MakerDAO project, which is built within the Etherm ecosystem, has made the greatest progress in this area, and Augur’s chief developer has expressed an interest in integrating Maker’s steady currency as soon as it is available. We believe that some form of stable currency will emerge in the coming years, and that it may not matter on which platform it will be created.
虽然我们希望这些稳定币可以完全分布式的方式实现，但已经存在像Tether和Digix这样的抵押品。 选择它们会带来交易对手风险，但这些公司的透明度和治理使它们成为很多人信任的选择。
While we hope that these stable currencies can be achieved in a fully distributed manner, collateral such as Tether and Digix already exists. Selecting them entails the risk of rivals, but the transparency and governance of these companies make them a trusted option for many.
虽然为没有任何人工输入而解决的市场问题而为报告者付费会增加结构成本，但REP系统的功能类似于针对受损数据馈送/预言的保险政策，并且还允许在事件结果不明确的情况下解决争议。 我们认为，这一机制所提供的价值将超过它所带来的额外结构成本。 我们预测，无需人工干预，预言机将提供解决Augur绝大多数市场所需的信息。 但是，完全依赖这些将带来严重的风险。 我们认识到需要一个分布式的机制（REP持有者报告结果），我们相信Augur为此提供了最引人注目的设计。
While paying the reporter for market problems that are not addressed by manual input can increase structural costs, the functions of the REP system are similar to insurance policies for the delivery/forecasting of damaged data, and allow dispute resolution in cases where the outcome of the event is unclear. We believe that the value of this mechanism will outweigh the additional structural costs it will entail.
有三个关键变量会影响REP的估值：
Three key variables affect the valuation of the REP:
1. 现存资金
1. Existing funds
2. 网络费用
2. Network costs
3. 活跃报告者人数
3. Number of active reporters
4. 现存资金
4. Existing funds
现存资金是指在所有市场上下注的总金额。虽然交易量是指在平台上交易的总金额，但是现存资金息仅指获胜者在市场出现结果后将拿到的金额。
Existing funds are the total amount that is put on all markets. Although the volume of transactions is the total amount that is traded on the platform, the interest on the funds is only the amount that the winner will receive when the market results.
我们已经概述了为什么Augur优于中心化替代方案（资本、流动性、进入壁垒、安全性和对监管的抵制）。因此，Augur的潜在价值远远大于现有的预测市场。首先，较低的进入壁垒表明，Augur本身的存在可以大大增加预测市场的规模，就像共享汽车扩大出租车市场和数码相机扩大摄影市场一样。由于Augur几乎可用于任何类型的预测，因此Augur扩展到在线赌博和全球衍生品市场的潜力巨大。
We have outlined why Augur is better than a centralised alternative (capital, liquidity, barriers to entry, security, and resistance to regulation). Thus, the potential value of Augur is far greater than the existing forecast market.
所有这些因素将有助于增加Augur的现存资金。虽然无法预测这些收益的乘数，但我们预计它会很显著。现有的预测市场，相对于Augur而言存在巨大摩擦，规模已经是巨大的：
All these factors will help to increase the available funds in Augur. Although it is not possible to predict the multipliers of these gains, we expect it to be significant. The existing forecast market, with its huge friction over Augur, is already huge:
全球体育博彩估计价值在1-3万亿美元之间
Global sports games are estimated to be worth between $1 and $3 trillion.
到2021年，在线赌博接近1万亿美元
By 2021, online gambling was close to $1 trillion.
仅在2012年美国总统大选中，InTrade就处理了2.3亿美元
In the 2012 presidential election alone, Intrade disposed of $230 million.
所有博彩和衍生品平台的全球价值可能达到数万亿
The global value of all lottery and derivative platforms is likely to reach trillions of dollars.
费用结构决定了持有人的现金流量，并影响了Augur对替代品的竞争力。 为了有效竞争，Augur必须提供比中心化更低的费用，并且与分布式的替代品竞争。 预测市场目前所有利润都要收取10％的费用，而Bitfair的费率通常在3-7％之间，尽管它们有时会更高。 我们认为Augur的费用将远低于这些中心化项目的费用。 大多数估计表明，Augur费用将在1％左右。 我们的模型包括高于和低于此数字的费用估算。
In order to compete effectively, Augur must provide a lower cost than a centralized alternative, and compete with distributed alternatives. The market is now projected to charge 10% of all profits, while Bitfair’s rates are usually between 3 and 7%, although they are sometimes higher.
Augur目前的结构涉及两种类型的费用：市场创建者费用和报告费用。 每个市场的市场创建者费用都不同，因为它们是由创造市场的个人设定的。 这些费用将具有很强的竞争力，因为用户将选择参与费用最低的市场。
The current structure of Augur involves two types of costs: the costs of market creators and the costs of reporting. The costs of market creators differ in each market, as they are set by the individuals who create the market.
报告费是指向报告者支付的费用，因此是与确定REP估价相关的费用。这些费用由Augur网络动态决定。费用结构旨在将所有REP的网络价值（AKA市值）维持在Augur市场现存资金总额的5倍。如果所有REP的网络价值低于5倍的现存资金，网络将增加费用。因此，REP买家应该愿意为REP支付更多费用，从而抬高价格。该过程以5x为平衡点在两个方向上起作用。
Reporting costs refer to the costs paid to the reporter, and therefore to the costs associated with determining the REP valuation. These costs are determined by the dynamics of the Augur network. The cost structure is designed to maintain the value of all the REP networks (the market value of AKA) five times the total funds available in the Agur market. If all REP networks are less than five times the value of existing funds, the network will increase costs. Therefore, the REP buyers should be willing to pay more for the REP, thus raising prices.
费用下限为0.1％。然而，Augur团队表示，随着市场的发展，这个下限以及5倍的倍数都会发生变化。这些变更将由开发团队在早期自行决定，但会在以后由REP持有人投票后更改。
However, the Augur team says that as the market develops, both the floor and the five-fold multipliers will change. These changes will be left to the development team to decide at an early stage, but will be changed later by a vote of the REP holder.
我们认识到需要尝试使用像Augur这样的新型颠覆性技术。费用必须足够高，以便为REP报告者提供现金流激励，但也足够低，以至于Augur仍然具有竞争力。
We recognize the need to try to use new subversive technologies like Augur. Costs must be high enough to provide a cash flow incentive for theREP reporter, but low enough to make Augur still competitive.
如前所述，REP持有人可以选择决定他们是否选择在给定的时间窗口内报告。 活跃的报告者数量将影响费用的分配，因为费用是在活跃的报告者中根据他们的REP股份分配的。 如果较少的报告者决定在给定的时间窗口内工作，则每个REP的现金流量将增加。
As noted above, the number of active reporters will affect the distribution of costs, as the costs are distributed among active reporters according to their shares in the REP, and if fewer reporters decide to work within the given time window, the cash flow of each REP will increase.
通过有关估值驱动因素的信息，我们可以为REP创建现金流量模型：每年回报=（年度现存资金）x（平均报告费用）/ 11,000,000
Through information on valuation drivers, we can create a cash flow model for REP: annual returns = (annually available funds) x (average reporting costs) / 110 million
市场上产生的报告总费用按比例分给报告者。因此，每个REP的回报是总报告费用除以11,000,000的函数。
The total cost of reporting generated on the market is distributed pro rata to the reporter. Thus, the return for each REP is divided between the total reporting cost and the 11,000,000 function.
对于此估值，我们将使用现金流量多方法。我们预计，在2021年，Augur网络将有25亿美元的现存资金以1％的费率产生费用。
For this valuation, we will use multiple cash flow methods. We expect that in 2021, the Augur network will have $2.5 billion in available funds at a rate of 1 per cent.
我们之所以选择2021年，是因为我们已经看到其他网络需要大约4年的时间才能达到应用此类分析的成熟度。我们根据前面提到的用例选择了25亿美元。瞻博网络研究预计，2021年将近万亿美元的网络博彩。我们预测其中的2.5％将流经Augur网络。我们认为这是可以实现的，因为Augur相对于集中预测市场的结构优势（全球流动性池，较低的费用，缺乏交易对手风险）。
We have chosen 2021 because we have seen that other networks take about four years to reach maturity in applying such analysis. We have selected $2.5 billion, based on the above-mentioned example. Research on the World Wide Web predicts that nearly trillion dollars will be spent in 2021. We predict that 2.5 per cent of that amount will flow through the Augur network. We think this is achievable, because Augur has a structural advantage over a centralized forecast market (global liquidity pool, lower costs, lack of counter-party risk).
每股回报=25亿美元x 1％/ 11,000,000=22.73美元
Returns per share = $2.5 billion x 1 per cent / 110 million = $22.73
我们保守地预测100%的REP报告者都是活跃的。如果我们只有75％活跃的REP报告者，那么活跃的REP报告者的现金流将增加33％。
We conservatively predict that 100% of REP reporters are active. If only 75% of REP reporters are active, the cash flow of active REP reporters will increase by 33%.
我们可以为投资者愿意为2021年22.72美元现金流支付的乘以一个倍数。这个倍数将取决于现金流的风险程度，增长速度以及宏观环境。纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran 被广泛地认为是估值专家，他在不同行业的市盈率研究中发现，互联网软件公司的平均市盈率为221.88。我们预测更保守的市盈率：
We can multiply the amount that investors are willing to pay for cash flows of $22.72 in 2021 by a factor of one. This multiplier will depend on the level of risk of cash flows, their rate of growth, and the macro-environment. Aswah Damodaran, a professor of finance at New York University, is widely regarded as an expert in valuations, and he finds that Internet software companies have an average market gain of 221.88 in different industries. We predict a more conservative market gain:
熊市情况：10x的倍数=22.73 X 10=227.27 美元
Bear City Situation: Multiplier of 10 x = 22.73 X 10 = 227.27
正常情况：25x的倍数=22.73 X 25=568.18 美元
Normal situation: Multiplier of 25 x = 22.73 X 25 = $568.18
牛市情况：100x的倍数=22.73 X 100=2,272.73 美元
Cattle situation: Multiplier of 100 x = 22.73 X 100 = $2,272.73
然后我们必须从2021年到2017年打折。我们将按年度40％的折扣来应对上述重大风险。这意味着贴现因子为（1 + 0.4）^ 4=3.84：
Then we have to make a discount from 2021 to 2017. We will deal with these significant risks at a 40% annual discount. This means that the discount factor is 1 + 0.4.4 4 = 3.84:
熊市情况：贴现值 227.27 / 3.84=59.16 美元
Bear City: discounted value 227.27 / 3.84 = $59.16
正常情况：贴现值 568.18 / 3.84=147.90 美元
Normal situation: discounted present value 568.18 / 3.84 = $147.90
牛市情况：贴现值 2,272.73 / 3.84=591.61 美元
Cow market: discount value 2,272.73 / 3.84 = $591.61
认识到这些贴现值是针对极高风险投资进行调整非常重要的。 40％的折现率被认为适合早期投资。
It is important to recognize that these discounted values are adjusted for very high-risk investments. 40 per cent discount rates are considered suitable for early investment.
Augur在基于以太坊的预测市场中的主要竞争对手是Gnosis。 Gnosis与Augur有完全不同的设计，主要使用中心化的oracle服务，并且只在发生争议时才采用分布式仲裁（所有ETH持有人都可以投票）。 我们不会对Gnosis进行深入探索，因为它的通证和平台没有通过我们的投资资格基准测试。 Gnosis采用了过于复杂的通证机制和争议解决流程，这种流程依赖于未经测试和脆弱的加密经济假设。 此外，超过90％的GNO通证由开发团队和基金会持有，发布时间表未知。 我们预计协议复杂性，通证分布不确定性和稀释将对GNO令牌产生向下的价格压力。
In addition, more than 90% of GNO passes are held by development teams and foundations, with an unknown timetable. We anticipate that the agreement’s complexity will be subject to downward price pressure on GNO’s brands with uncertainty and dilution.
Stox是另一个基于以太坊的分布式预测市场。 Stox要求所有市场都以其原生令牌STX命名。 我们认为在其他一些严重情况下，这不是一个长期可行的解决方案。
Stox requires that all markets be named after their original STX. In other serious cases, we believe that this is not a long-term solution.
中心化替代方案（拉斯维加斯体育博彩，PredictIt等）
Centralized Alternatives (Las Vegas Sports Gaming, Predictit et al.)
如上所述，与中心化预测市场相比，Augur具有显着的结构优势 ——全球流动性池，更低的费用，缺乏交易对手风险和最低限度的监管。
As noted above, Augur has a significant structural advantage over the centralized forecast market — the global liquidity pool, lower costs, lack of counterparty risk and minimal regulation.
Joey Krug是Augur的首席后端开发人员，也是团队中最活跃的成员。 他最近宣布，他将加入Pantera Capital作为其通证基金的合作伙伴。 该基金计划的一个主要部分是利用该基金的大量资金来为Augur平台提供早期流动性。 这一点的重要性不容忽视。 与任何金融市场一样，Augur的效用取决于高交易量和流动性。 对于新网络而言，这可能是一个难以克服的障碍，拥有大量资金来提供早期流动性和做市服务提供了一个关键优势。
Joey Krug is Augur’s chief back-end developer, and the most active member of the team. He recently announced that he would join Pantera Capital as his partner in the Translator Fund.
预测市场InTrade和TradeSports的前首席执行官Ron Bernstein，目前是Augur的顾问委员会成员。 他创建了一家新公司Augment Partners，该公司将建立交易软件，专注于分布式协议，尤其是Augur。 关于该公司的细节很少，但伯恩斯坦的LinkedIn表示，他们将创建“一系列'垂直'商业市场，旨在利用Augur项目。”Augment Partners的团队和顾问包括过去的Augur员工和现任Augur首席开发人员。 他们可能会努力推动平台的投资和应用，并增加流动性和市场。
He created a new company, Augment Partners, which will build trading software, focusing on distributed agreements, especially Augur. There are few details about the company, but LinkedIn in Bernstein states that they will create “a series of'vertical' commercial markets aimed at taking advantage of the Augur project.”
我们认为，分布式的预测市场将重塑事件预测，使其民主化。 Augur是预测市场领域最具吸引力的投资机会。 按目前的估值（约22美元），我们看好REP。
Augur is the most attractive investment opportunity in the market area. At the current valuation (about $22), we look forward to the REP.
本文翻译自 Multicoin Capital 的 ? Augur ($REP) Analysis and Valuation ?，翻译中有删改，如有侵权请联系译者删除，原文可到其官网申请下载。
This text has been translated from Multicoin Capital? Augur ($REP) Analysis and Valuation? The translation has been deleted and the original text can be downloaded from its website if the tort contact interpreter deletes it.
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