编辑 | 于斌
出品 | 潮起网「于见专栏」
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掐指一算，比特币诞生至今已经有十二年了。
It's been 12 years since Bitcoin was born.
如果说在过去的十二年里，有什么"商品"实现了绝对的保值增值，黄金和房产或许成绩亮眼，但傲视群雄的绝对非比特币莫属。
If there have been #34; commodities #34; and absolute value added over the past 12 years, gold and property may have performed well, but the pride of the males is absolutely not bitcoin.
比特币究竟是什么？
What exactly is Bitcoin?
我们可以借用一个巨大的池塘来讲述比特币的原理。
We can use a huge pond to tell the principles of Bitcoin.
（1）比特币就是池塘里的鱼
在十二年前，有一个对世界未来经济充满担忧的日裔美国籍渔夫，他的名字叫中本聪，他往一个巨大的池塘里投放了2100条鱼，虽然这些鱼的种类不尽相同，但是每条鱼的价格是一样的，每条鱼都是平等的，没有任何歧视。
Twelve years ago, a Japanese-American fisherman with concerns about the future economy of the world, his name was Nakamoto, who had dropped 2,100 fish into a huge pond. Although the fish species were different, the price of each fish was the same, and each fish was equal and non-discriminatory.
然后，中本聪就向世界各地的垂钓爱好者发布了这则消息。他在消息里说到，整个池塘有2100条鱼，但由于鱼的种类多种多样，我自己也不清楚每个深度都有哪种鱼，每个深度都有多少条鱼。如果你们钓到了，这条鱼就属于你们自己，但是不能带走，可以在鱼的身上做上标记，证明这条鱼属于你。这个标记就是一个凭证，可以拿着这个凭证去任何地方与别人做交易，费用就是你所标记的那条鱼。
Then, he released this message to the fans of fishing around the world. In the news, he said that there were 2,100 fish in the pond, but because of the variety of fish, I didn't know what fish was at each depth, and how many fish were at each depth. If you caught it, the fish belonged to you, but it could not be taken away, and it could be marked on the fish, and it could be shown that it belonged to you. That mark was a document that could be traded anywhere with it, at the expense of the fish you marked.
一开始人们觉得这是多此一举的事情，毕竟人们已经习惯了直接使用货币进行交易。
At the outset, it was felt that this was an overstatement, after all, that people were used to dealing directly with money.
但人都是有好奇心的，总有一些人打算试试。并且因为池塘里的鱼很多，不管在哪个深度用什么鱼饵，总能轻易地钓到鱼。钓到之后，就会有些"闲人"拿着鱼去交易，于是，第一笔交易就诞生了，交易的物品是披萨饼。
But people are curious, and there are some who want to try. And because there are a lot of fish in the pond, and whatever bait they use at any depth, they can catch fish easily. And when they do, they get some #34; they get some #34; they take the fish and trade it, and the first deal is born, and the deal is pizza.
随着鱼越来越贵，如果还用鱼来交易披萨饼的话，就可以把这条鱼分成几部分，用其中的一部分交易。
As fish become more expensive, if they are traded for pizzas, they can be traded in parts and parts of them.
（2）渔夫为什么要放鱼？
这就要从2007年的次贷危机说起。
This begins with the subprime crisis of 2007.
传统货币之所以可以进行交易，归根结底是由于人们对国家、政府以及银行的信任。
In the final analysis, traditional currencies can be traded because of the trust placed in the State, in the Government and in the banks.
但奇怪的是，当次贷危机引起的全球金融风暴的飓风将要来临的时候，经济学家却让大家放心，结果，人们不仅损失了大量金钱，还原谅了他们。
But strangely, when the hurricanes of the global financial turmoil caused by the subprime mortgage crisis were coming, economists reassured that, as a result, people not only lost a great deal of money but also forgiven them.
但渔夫没有原谅，所以从那时起，他就计划放鱼。
But the fisherman didn't forgive him, so he's been planning to release the fish ever since.
他先对池塘的管理做了一番研究，并立了一块黑板。
He first studied the management of the pond and set up a blackboard.
这块黑板用来记录池塘里的鱼的动向，哪几条被钓走了，被谁钓走的，钓走以后都做了什么，还得记录多少条没被发现。并且为了防止鱼被偷梁换柱，还需要在每条鱼身上装上卫星定位器，以便随时记录这条鱼的位置。黑板上不止记录了鱼的动向，还记录了谁是钓鱼高手，今天有多少鱼被交易等信息。
This blackboard is used to record the movements of the fish in the pond, which have been taken away, by whom, what has been done since, and how many have not been discovered. And, in order to prevent the fish from being stolen, there is a need to put a satellite locator on every fish to record its location at any time. The blackboard does not only record the movements of the fish, but also records how many fish are traded today.
对于玩这个游戏的人来说，很公平。
It's fair for people who play this game.
并且有着极大的优点，可以取代大量的货币并且不受监管。这便是鱼塘带来的诱惑。
And there's a great advantage in replacing large amounts of money and being unregulated. That's the temptation of fish ponds.
与现实结合的话，池塘本身，不同的深度，黑板（公告牌），这都属于区块，这些区块通过背后的管理逻辑连接在一起，这个管理逻辑便称做链；池塘里的鱼，就是比特币。
Together with reality, the pond itself, with its different depths, the blackboards, are blocks that are linked by the underlying management logic, which is called chains; the fish in the pond is Bitcoin.
区块链这个词汇也就应运而生，虽然区块链是由区块和链两部分组成，但却是一个整体。
The term block chains, which are made up of blocks and chains, is also born as a whole.
随着越来越多的人认可，现在已经有越来越多的渔夫开始往不同的池塘里放鱼，他们用的管理技术大同小异，就是鱼的名字不大一样而已。
As more and more people agree, more and more fishermen are now starting to plant fish in different ponds, using the same management techniques, just the same names.
价格屡创新高的比特币
Prices Innovative Bitcoin
根据Coindesk公司的数据显示，比特币价格在过去半个月里增长势头相当明显。
According to Coindisk data, Bitcoin prices have grown considerably over the past six months.
（1） 没有最高，只有更高
(1) No highest, only higher
自2020年12月16日，比特币价格首次站上2万美元的高位之后，比特币的价格便一直飙升，12月17日，突破2.3万美元；12月20日，突破2.4万美元；12月27日，突破2.7万美元；12月30日，突破2.8万美元，此时比特币的市值已经超过5245亿美元，这差不多相当于1.5个贵州茅台的市值，占据了全球虚拟加密货币70%以上的市值。比特币价格的飙升并没有随着2020年的结束而结束，相反，进入2021年，比特币连涨三天，在突破3万美元的大关后，1月3日的最高价格冲到了33318.90美元。
The price of Bitcoin has been soaring since 16 December 2020, when the price of Bitcoin first stood at a high of $20,000. On 17 December, the price of Bitcoin rose by $230 million; on 20 December, the price of $240 million; on 27 December, the price of $287 million; and on 30 December, the market value of Bitcoin had exceeded $524.5 million, which was almost equal to the market value of 1.5 state huts, accounting for more than 70 per cent of the value of the global virtual encrypted currency. The price of Bitcoin did not end with the end of 2020; on the contrary, in 2021, the price of Bitcoin rose by three days, and the highest price of $33318.90 on 3 January, following the break of $30,000.
这就意味着，如果在12月16日买进，短短不到二十天的时间里，收益率已经超过50%。如果买进的时间再往前一点，在2010年买入一枚比特币（当时的价格是0.0025美元），1月3日的最高点卖出的话，收益超过1200万倍。也就是说，在2010年投入1元钱，现在已经变成了1300万元，如果投入100元钱，现在手里的现金将达到13亿元。
This means that if you buy it on December 16, in less than 20 days, the rate of return is more than 50%. If you buy one bitcoin in 2010, at a price of US$ 0.0025, and sell it at the highest point on January 3, the return is more than 12 million.
这是多少投资者想都想不到的事情，但奇迹却就这么发生了。
This is something that investors can't imagine, but it's a miracle.
比特币自诞生以来，也并不是一路高涨的，虽然价格波动一直较为强烈，但总的来说一共有两次大的低谷。第一次是在2013年11月比特币价格达到近在1000美元时，从2015年9月便一直狂跌，最低时跌至200美元；第二次是在2017年3月，比特币价格首次超过一盎司黄金的价格，并在当年12月创下19875美元的历史高点，结果好景不长，在12月20日比特币价格开始回调，随后又进入近三年的低谷期，2018年的2月，比特币的价格已经跌到不足7000美金，2018年底价格低至3000美元。
Bitcoin has also not been on the rise since its inception, although price fluctuations have been strong, but there are generally two large lows. The first, when Bitcoin prices reached nearly $1,000 in November 2013, fell sharply from September 2015 to $200, and the second, in March 2017, when Bitcoin prices surpassed the price of one ounce of gold for the first time and hit a historic high of $875 in December of the same year, with modest results, beginning to rebound on 20 December, followed by a three-year low, with Bitcoin prices falling to less than $7,000 in February 2018 and down to $3,000 by the end of 2018.
（2） 推动比特币上涨的因素
(2) Factors driving the Bitcoin up
催生本轮涨势的原因，「于见专栏」总结了四点原因。
The reasons for this increase are summarized in the column below.
一是受减半行情的影响。比特币和一些无限量的供应的虚拟货币不同，比特币具有稀缺性。量变引起质变，比特币一开始被设定的总数量为2100万个，随着越来越多的比特币被挖到，挖矿获取比特币的难度也将会越来越大，并且源于供求关系的考虑，根据"四年减半"之说，2020年还是比特币第三次产量减半，从原来的挖出一个区块奖励12.5个比特币降至6.25个，预计距离第四次产量减半还有1200余日，彼时挖出一个区块的奖励将从6.25枚降低为3.125枚。
One is affected by halving the number of bitcoins. Bitcoins are scarce, unlike some virtual currencies with unlimited supply. Volume changes cause a qualitative change, with Bitcoins initially set at 21 million, and as more and more bitcoins are dug, it will become more difficult to dig for bitcoins, based on supply-and-demand considerations, based on 34; four years to halve #34; so that in 2020 the third production of bitcoins is reduced by half, from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bits from the original one, and it is expected that more than 1,200 days from the fourth production reduction, the incentive to dig one block will be reduced from 6.25 to 3.125.
据CoinMarketCap的数据显示，截至2020年12月30日晚，全球比特币的供应量已经超1858万个。
According to CoinMarketCap, by the night of 30 December 2020, the global supply of Bitcoin had exceeded 1,858 million.
二是受全球疫情再度恶化导致需求进一步增大。受疫情影响，全球各大央行基本都在大放水，发布了一系列刺激财政规模的举措，致使投资者对抗通货膨胀的资产需求增加。例如，美国为了稳定市场和经济，美国国会两院高票通过最新一轮规模达9000亿美元的刺激计划。疫情爆发以来，美国政府共推出了3轮共约3万亿美元的财政刺激方案。在这种宽松货币政策下，全球通货膨胀的趋势愈发明显，市场对于抗通胀资产的需求大幅增加。而比特币的交易价格与经济周期、市场周期、库存周期、突发疫情等这些实体经济的关系并不大，于是，比特币自然也就成为了抗通货膨胀最好的资产。
As a result of the epidemic, major central banks around the world have issued a series of fiscal stimulus initiatives that have increased investors’ demand for assets to counter inflation. For example, in an effort to stabilize the market and the economy, both chambers of the United States Congress have passed the latest round of stimulus packages, amounting to $900 billion.
三是机构力量凸显。比特币现在已经成为市场上的新宠儿，已经受到主流投资机构的广泛关注，并且正在以加速与主流金融体系融合。例如，作为全球头部基金公司的富达投资，在2020年10月份发布报告建议投资者持有占投资组合金额5％的比特币；拥有超过3亿用户的在线支付巨头PayPal大量购入比特币，并在2020年11月宣布为符合条件的美国客户提供比特币交易服务；美国上市公司、商业智能软件提供商MicroStrategy正式将比特币投资作为公司的业务之一，目前大致持有逾11亿美元的比特币；新加坡星展银行DBS对机构投资者推出比特币等数字资产交易服务；知名数字资产信托机构灰度信托数字资产管理总规模最高接近200亿美元。这些公司的纷纷加入，使得比特币成为机构宏观资产配置的组成部分，也为比特币的价格提供了重要保障。这些事例都代表着数字资产市场正在发生根本性的变化。
For example, as a global head fund company’s rich investment, a report issued in October 2020 recommended that investors hold bitcoins, which account for 5% of the portfolio; that companies with more than 300 million users make large purchases of big PayPal on-line payments to bitcoins, and announced in November 2020 that they provide Bitcoins services to eligible United States customers; that United States listed companies, business intelligence software providers, officially include Bitcoins as one of the companies’ operations, currently holding more than $1.1 billion bitcoins; that Singapore Star Fairing Bank’s DBS roll-out of digital asset-trading services, such as Bitcoins, to institutional investors; and that a well-known digital asset trust’s total size of nearly $20 billion. These companies have joined, making bitcoins part of the agency’s macro asset allocation and providing important security for Bitcoins’ prices.
四是区块链技术的落地。随着全球数字经济的快速发展，使得区块链技术演进和创新应用发展的也极为迅速，特别是基于区块链的DeFi（分布式金融）为代表的去中心化金融形态、加密收藏品、区块链游戏等新业态发展迅猛，加快赋能产业。对区块链基础设施需求会直接带动对相应数字资产的需求，进而带动资产价格提升。而比特币在数字资产里面的充当'一般等价物'的角色，类似数字资产市场的蓝筹，对区块链平台和数字资产需求增加预期会先导性地反映到比特币的价格上。"
With the rapid development of the global digital economy, the technological evolution of the block chain and the development of innovative applications have also been extremely rapid, particularly the decentralized financial patterns, encrypted collections, block chain games, etc., represented by the DeFi (distributed finance) block chain, which has accelerated the enabling industry. The demand for block chain infrastructure will directly drive the demand for corresponding digital assets, leading to an increase in asset prices. The role of Bitcoin in the digital asset is #39; general equivalents #39; and the role of the bluening of the digital asset market, where increased demand for the block chain platform and digital assets is expected to be reflected in bitcoin prices #34.
后市还会上涨吗？
Will the city rise after the strong?
对于比特币的后市走势，「于见专栏」认为，目前推动比特币价格上涨的因素依旧存在，短时间内不会消失，回调现象也并未出现，并且随着市场的成熟和稳定，比特币可能还会持续上涨一段时间，不断突破最高点，长到5万美元并不是很困难的事情。
With respect to the post-Market movement in Bitcoin, the “see column” argues that the current push to increase the price of bitcoin still exists and will not disappear in a short period of time, that the feedback has not occurred, and that, as the market matures and stabilizes, bitcoin may continue to rise for some time, breaking its peak, reaching $50,000 is not so difficult.
但如果未来出现见顶行情，比特币便会出现较大的波动，所以，各位投资人在投资比特币的时候，应正确认识比特币的投资定位，比特币属于高风险类资产，而非避险资产。在盈利的同时，也需要注意风险控制，建议采用闲钱来投资。
But in the future, there will be greater volatility in bitcoins, so investors, when investing in bitcoins, should have a proper understanding of the investment location of bitcoins, which are high-risk, rather than risk-avoidance assets. At the same time, they need to be aware of risk control and be advised to invest with free money.
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