比特币的总量为2100万枚,以挖矿奖励的形式发行,大约到2140年所有的比特币将会全部被挖出。这也就意味着,在那之后矿工们将不会继续获得比特币作为挖矿奖励,矿工们会因此消失吗?届时比特币区块链的安全又怎么保障?
A total of 21 million bitcoins, distributed in the form of a mining incentive, will all bitcoins be excavated by around 2140. That means that miners will not continue to receive bitcoin as a mining incentive after that, and the miners will disappear as a result.
实际上,矿工的挖矿收入包括两个部分,一部分是区块奖励,最初打包一次交易的奖励是50枚比特币,每四年减半一次;另一部分来自交易手续费。为了保证自己的交易能够尽快被矿工确认,交易者们通常会额外付给他们一笔手续费,手续费越高,交易被优先打包的可能性越大。
In fact, miners’ mining revenues consist of two components, one block incentive, the first packaged 50 bitcoins, which is reduced by half every four years, and the other from transaction fees. In order to ensure that their transactions are confirmed by miners as soon as possible, traders usually pay them an additional fee, the higher the fee, the greater the risk that the transactions will be packaged on a priority basis.
手续费的存在一方面可以提高转账门槛,防止区块链中充斥垃圾交易;另一方面,也可以激励矿工竞争记账,使他们在比特币全部被挖出之后,还能够继续为比特币网络的安全提供算力保障。
The existence of fees can, on the one hand, raise the threshold for transfers and prevent garbage trading in block chains; on the other, it can also provide incentives for miners to compete in bookkeeping, enabling them to continue to provide arithmetical security for the Bitcoin network after all bitcoins have been dug out.
所以理论上来说,在所有的比特币都发行完毕之后,只要有足够多的交易需求,矿工们就有理由继续挖矿。另外,从比特币的发展历程来看,真正影响矿工是否继续挖矿的因素,并非是否有矿可挖,而是挖矿的收益如何。在比特币交易量增加、手续费升高;或者比特币价格升高的情况下,挖矿收益可观,矿工们的投入热情就会相应高涨。
So, theoretically, once all bitcoins have been released, the miners have a reason to continue digging as long as there is enough demand for them to do so. Moreover, given the history of Bitcoin, the real influence on whether miners continue to dig is not whether or not there are mines to dig, but what the benefits are.
矿工并不是单纯的在乎比特币现在的价格。记得有一些矿池就采用贪心算法,一直把算力用来挖『最有利可图的币』,也就是兑换成美元价值最高的币,但是事实证明这种贪心算法并没有比一直挖一种币的好到哪里去。为什么呢?因为挖矿本来就不是一个一次性的游戏,币是可以储存的,也就是说,每个矿工都有自己的前景。也就是他们对比特币的未来价格的判断可能相同,也可能不同。
Miners do not simply care about the price of bitcoins now. It is important to remember that some ponds use greedy algorithms that always use them to dig “the most profitable currency” – that is, to convert them into the dollar’s highest value currency – but it turns out that this method of greed is no better than the one that always digs a currency. Why? Because mining is not a one-time game, money can be stored, that is, every miner has his own prospects. That is, they may have the same or different judgment about the future price of bitcoin.
即便今天比特币跌倒1美元,只要矿工们相信未来比特币依然能够涨回去,那么他们就不会在乎眼下的亏损,而是会继续的挖下去,囤着币之后去卖。所以考虑到对比特币信念的异质性,这又回到了一个消耗战模式,矿工需要用自己亏本支撑的时间来体现自己的信念。
Even today, even if Bitcoin falls by $1, as long as miners believe that the future bitcoin will still rise back, they will not care about the loss at hand, but will continue digging, hoarding, and selling it. So, given the heterogeneity of Bitcoin’s beliefs, this goes back to a consumption mode, and miners will need to use their time, supported by their own losses, to express their beliefs.
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