华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)
近日，加密市场一扫低迷之态，开启上涨模式。与此前不同的是，本轮上涨更多的由以太坊主导。5月22日，据美国证券集中保管结算公司（DTCC）数据显示，由资管集团VanEck推出的代码为“ETHV”的现货以太坊ETF已在该网站列出。这也被视为以太坊现货ETF即将通过监管审核的重要一环。
In recent days, the encryption market has closed down, opening up a pattern of upturns. Unlike before, the current round has been more dominated by the Etheria. On May 22, according to data from the United States Securities Centralization Settlement Corporation (DTCC), VanEck’s code for “ETHV” is already on the site.
5月21日，比特币（BTC）快速冲高，突破7.1万美元关口，日内最大涨幅超7%。以太币（ETH）突破3800美元，日内最大涨幅超20%。不过两者在5月22日的价格均有所回落，截至发稿，BTC最新价格为69832.7美元，24小时内跌幅1.81%；ETH最新价格为3760.05美元，24小时内涨幅2.6%。
On 21 May, the Bitcoin (BTC) surged rapidly, breaking the $71,000 threshold, with a maximum increase of 7 per cent per day. By $3,800, with a maximum increase of 20 per cent per day. However, both prices fell back on 22 May, with BTC's latest price of $69,832.7 falling by 1.81 per cent in 24 hours; and ETH's latest price of $37,600.05, with an increase of 2.6 per cent in 24 hours.
价格的变动，导致过去24小时共有超6万投资者被爆仓，爆仓总金额为1.76亿美元。
Changes in prices have resulted in a total of more than 60,000 investors being blown up in the past 24 hours, totalling $176 million.
“加密货币市场的涨跌波动较大，这可能会对投资者产生心理压力和风险。投资者需要注意市场波动，并制定合理的投资策略，以应对可能的损失。”萨摩耶云科技集团首席经济学家郑磊在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。
“Standard money markets are highly volatile, which may create psychological pressure and risk for investors. Investors need to be aware of market volatility and develop sound investment strategies to deal with potential losses.” The Chief Economist of Samoyeun Technologies said in an interview with a Washington Times journalist.
现货以太坊ETF已箭在弦上
5月21日，据外媒报道，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）要求交易所加速更新关于现货以太坊ETF的19b-4文件，此举被市场解读为SEC可能会在本周批准这些申请。以太坊联合创始人、加密基础设施公司Consensys首席执行官Joe Lubin表示，美国证券交易委员会终于准备批准现货以太坊ETF，由此产生的对以太坊的需求可能会导致供应紧缩。 On May 21, the foreign media reported that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had asked the exchange to expedite the updating of 19b-4 documents on spot-based ETFs, which had been interpreted by the market as the possibility that SEC would approve these applications this week. According to Joe Lubin, the co-founder of the Tai and chief executive officer of the encryption infrastructure company Connsys, the SEC was finally ready to approve spot-based ETFs, and the resulting demand for ETA could lead to supply tightening. 值得注意的是，即使19b-4文件获批，但也并不意味着现货以太坊ETF得到批准，潜在发行人还需要获得S-1申请批准后，相关产品才能开始交易。ETFStore总裁Nate Geraci表示，SEC有可能批准19b-4，但放慢S-1的执行速度，这两者的间隔时间可能需要几周，甚至几个月，技术性拖缓上市的进度。 It is worth noting that even if the 19b-4 document is approved, this does not mean that the spot is approved by the Taiyo ETF, and that a potential issuer needs to obtain S-1 approval before the relevant product can start trading. According to ETFStore Managing Director Nate Geraci, SEC may approve 19b-4, but slow down the implementation of S-1, which may take weeks, or even months, between the two, with technical delays. 彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas表示，美国证监会可能会对以太坊ETF申请态度做出180度的大转变，因此，其将现货以太坊ETF获得批准的估计概率从25%提高到75%。该消息发布后，ETH带领加密市场集体冲高。 Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that the CSRC might have made a 180-degree shift in its attitude towards the ETF application, thus increasing the estimated probability of the spot being approved by ETF from 25% to 75%. Following the release of the message, ETH led the encrypt market. 北京共识区块链研究院副院长、国际区块链与加密货币协会高级研究员高泽龙向《华夏时报》记者表示，如果以太坊现货ETF通过，将为投资者提供一个更加便捷和传统的投资加密货币的方式。这将可能吸引更多的机构投资者和散户进入加密货币市场，从而增加市场的流动性和深度。同时，这也可能促进以太坊价格的上涨，因为ETF的推出通常被视为市场对某个资产长期看好的信号。 The Vice-President of the Beijing Consensus Block Chain Institute, and the Senior Fellow of the International Block Chain and Encrypted Currency Association, Gao Zelón, stated to the Washington Times that if adopted in the near future, it would provide investors with a more convenient and traditional form of investment encrypting currency. This could attract more institutional investors and wholesalers into the encrypted currency market, thereby increasing its liquidity and depth. “而如果ETF未能通过，可能会对市场情绪产生负面影响，导致短期内的价格回调。”高泽龙说。 “And if the ETF fails, it may have a negative impact on market sentiment, leading to short-term price retrenchment.” Gausseleon said. 对此，郑磊也表示，如果以太坊现货ETF通过，将为加密货币市场引入更多的机构投资者，从而推动市场的发展和扩大。这将有助于提高市场的稳定性和流动性，降低投资者的风险。 In this regard, Chung also stated that if adopted by the Taiwan spot ETF, more institutional investors would be introduced into the crypto-currency market, thereby contributing to market development and expansion. This would help to increase market stability and liquidity and reduce investor risk. 截至目前，六家现货以太坊ETF申请人已提交修订后的19b-4文件，其中包括VanEck、Fidelity、Franklin、Ark Invest、Grayscale、Invesco Galaxy。美SEC必须在美东时间5月23日5月24日之前，分别决定是批准还是拒绝VanEck和ARK 21Shares的现货以太坊ETF申请。VanEck首席执行官Jan van Eck此前曾表示，他个人怀疑SEC是否会在5月份批准其公司的ETF申请。 So far, six spot ETA ETF applicants have submitted revised documents 19b-4, including Van Eck, Fidelity, Franklin, Ark Invest, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy. The US SEC must decide whether to grant or reject the ETF application for Van Eckk and ARK 21Shares, respectively, by 24 May of US Eastern Time. Jan van Eck, Chief Executive Officer of Van Eck, has previously indicated that he personally suspects that SEEC will approve the ETF application of his company in May. 另一个值得关注的时间点是8月，8月3日是富达现货以太坊ETF的最后期限，8月7日是贝莱德以太坊ETF的最后期限。数据显示，目前包括贝莱德、富兰克林在内的11家华尔街机构同时在申请以太坊现货ETF。 Another point of interest is August 3, which is the deadline for the ETA ETF in Fuda, and August 7, which is the deadline for ETF in Belet ETA. The data show that 11 Wall Street agencies, including Belede, Franklin, are now applying for EETF in ETA at the same time. 渣打银行外汇研究和数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick表示，预计以太坊现货ETF获得批准后的前12个月内将推动239万至915万枚以太坊流入。以美元计算，大约相当于150亿至450亿美元。Kendrick重申，以太坊年终目标价格为8000美元，2025年底以太坊价格将达到14000美元。 Geoff Kendrick, Head of Foreign Exchange Research and Digital Assets Research at the Chartered Bank, said that it was expected to boost the flow of 2.39 million to 9.15 million in the first 12 months after ETF approval. In dollar terms, it would amount to about $15 billion to $45 billion. Kendrick reiterated that it would be $8,000 at the end of the year and $14,000 at the end of 2025 at the end of the year. 加密货币交易所Coinbase机构研究分析师David Han在报告中表示，随着加密货币在即将到来的11月美国总统大选前成为选民更加关注的问题，SEC不太可能维持其拒绝决定的立场。 In his report, David Han, research analyst at the Coinbase Institute of the Encrypted Currency Exchange, stated that SEC was unlikely to maintain its rejection of the decision as the encrypted currency became a matter of greater concern to voters in the run-up to the upcoming United States presidential election in November. 加密货币成两党博弈关键 现货比特币ETF取得的成绩有目共睹。随着美国机构持仓报告（13F）的陆续出炉，参与比特币现货ETF的机构仓位也随之曝光。有统计显示，约有1000家申报机构持有现货比特币ETF。 As US agencies hold reports (13F), the positions of the agencies participating in the Bitcoin spot ETF are exposed. Statistics show that about 1,000 reporting institutions hold the current Bitcoin ETF. 其中，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在第一季度的13F中披露，通过Grayscale的GBTC向现货BTC ETF投资了2.699亿美元。根据Fintel数据，这笔投资使摩根士丹利成为GBTC的最大持有者之一，仅次于苏斯克汉纳国际集团（Susquehanna International Group）10亿美元的投资。此外，其他投资比特币现货ETF的银行还包括加拿大皇家银行、摩根大通、富国银行、法国巴黎银行和瑞银集团。 Of this, Morgan Stanley disclosed in 13F in the first quarter that $269.9 million was invested in the spot BTC ETF through the Grayscale GBTC. According to Fintel, this investment made Morgan Stanley one of the largest holders of the GBTC, followed only by the Susquehanna International Group. 然而，尽管比特币ETF取得了亮眼的成绩，但SEC对以太坊ETF态度的转变或许是出于政治压力。此前，SEC一直试图将以太币归类为证券，也因此拒绝了所有现货以太坊ETF的申请。 However, despite the impressive performance of the Bitcoin ETF, the change in the EC’s attitude toward the Tai Tai-Kai ETF may have been due to political pressure. Previously, the SEC tried to classify it as a security, and therefore rejected all spot ETF applications. Galaxy Research 研究主管Alex Thorn表示，越来越多的人预计美证监会很快将会批准以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF），但如果美证监会对于以太坊ETF的态度真的出现了180度的转变，那将是一件值得令人担忧的事，他们可能会在ETH本身不是证券，而质押ETH是证券之间找到一个平衡点。 Alex Thorn, research director of Galaxy Research, said that an increasing number of people expected that the SEC would soon approve the Terai Exchange Trading Fund (ETF), but it would be a matter of concern if the SEC were to make a real 180-degree shift in its attitude towards the Tahrir ETF, and that they might find a balance between the fact that the ETH itself was not a security, and the pledge of the ETH was a security. 中关村物联网产业联盟副秘书长袁帅向《华夏时报》记者表示，如果以太坊被认定为证券，那么它就需要遵守相关的证券法规，这可能会对以太坊的流通和使用带来一些限制。同时，这也可能会让一些机构投资者在投资以太坊时面临更多的合规性要求。 The Deputy Secretary-General of the China-Korea Property Networking Industry Association, Yuan Yuan, has indicated to the Washington Times that if Tai's identified as a security, it will be required to comply with the relevant securities regulations, which may impose some restrictions on the flow and use of Etai's products. At the same time, it may expose some institutional investors to additional compliance requirements when investing in Tai's premises. “不过，从另一个角度来看，如果以太坊被认定为证券，那么它的地位也会得到更加明确地认可，这可能会吸引更多的投资者进入市场。对于加密货币市场来说，这可能会带来更加稳定的投资环境和更加丰富的投资产品。”袁帅如是说。 “From another perspective, however, its position would also be more clearly recognized if it were to be recognized as a security, which could attract more investors to the market. For an encrypted currency market, this could lead to a more stable investment climate and a richer investment product.” Yuan said. 5月22日，唐纳德·特朗普的总统竞选活动正式接受比特币和加密货币捐赠。此后不久便有媒体报道称，乔·拜登的竞选团队请求介绍加密货币捐款，并表示，“支持特朗普的加密货币捐款已经超过了他们”。由此可见，加密货币在美国大选中的影响力愈发重要。 On May 22, Donald Trump’s presidential campaign officially accepted Bitcoin and encrypted currency donations. Shortly after that, media reports reported that Joe Biden’s campaign team had asked for an encrypted currency donation and said that “the encrypt currency contributions in support of Trump had exceeded them.” As a result, the influence of the encrypt currency in the United States elections became even more important. 彭博社分析师表示，有关加密货币的政治因素可能已经发生了迅速变化。在即将到来的美国大选之前，加密货币似乎总体上正在成为一个更加政治化的问题。虽然不能完全确定，但乔·拜登总统的政府可能希望在加密问题上显得不那么“强硬”。 In the run-up to the upcoming US elections, encryption seems to be generally becoming a more politicized issue. While not entirely certain, President Joe Biden’s government may wish to look less “hard” on encryption. 日前，哈里斯民调代表Grayscale进行了有关“2024年选举中加密货币作用”的全国调查。调查结果显示，通货膨胀是美国选民最关心的问题，他们将经济稳定和支付账单的能力放在首位，而比特币因其硬性供应上限而常被视为货币贬值的对冲工具。近一半的选民在投资加密货币之前正在等待更明确的政策，这表明人们对监管清晰度的需求。 The results of a national survey on “The role of encryption in the 2024 elections” conducted by the Harris polls on behalf of Grayscale had shown that inflation was a major concern for American voters, who put economic stability and the ability to pay bills first, while Bitcoin was often seen as a hedge tool for currency depreciation because of its rigid supply ceiling. Nearly half of voters were waiting for clearer policies before investing in encrypted currency, indicating the need for regulatory clarity. 最新数据显示，加密产业为2024年美国大选捐款的金额已达9400万美元，创下历史最高纪录，已经超出2020年大选期间捐赠的8300万美元。其中，大多数捐款透过政治行动委员会（PAC）捐赠，Coinbase和Ripple Labs分别捐赠2050万美元和2000万美元，Coinbase执行长Brian Armstrong个人捐赠了100万美元。a16z创办人Marc Andreessen、Ben Horowitz分别捐赠900万美元，Winklevoss双胞胎兄弟分别捐赠250万美元。 The latest figures show that the encryption industry has contributed $94 million to the United States general elections in 2024, the highest in history, exceeding the $83 million donated during the elections in 2020. Most of the donations were made through the Political Action Committee (PAC), with Coinbase and Riple Labs contributing $20.5 million and Coinbase Executive Director Brian Armstrong contributing $1 million. A 16z founder, Marc Andreassen, and Ben Horowitz donating $9 million and Winklevoss twin brothers donating $2.5 million, respectively. 郑磊表示，加密货币行业未来的发展趋势将取决于市场的发展和监管环境的变化。随着技术的进步和监管政策的调整，加密货币行业将继续发展壮大。投资者需要关注行业动态，了解最新的技术和趋势，以便做出明智的投资决策。此外，投资者还需要注意合规性问题，遵守适用的法律法规，以避免任何法律风险。 As technology advances and regulatory policy changes, the sector will continue to grow. Investors need to be aware of industry dynamics and the latest technologies and trends in order to make informed investment decisions. 责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳 查看更多华夏时报文章，参与华夏时报微信互动（微信搜索「华夏时报」或「chinatimes」） Read more of the summer Times articles and participate in the summer Times micro-interactions ("/span" or "chinatimes
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