编者按：本文为专栏作者深潮TechFLow授权创业邦发表，版权归原作者所有，作者宋小丸。
Author: The author of the column is TechFLow, which authorizes the State of Entrepreneurs to publish. The copyright belongs to the original author, Song Xiaomaru.
千呼万唤始出来，比特币终于来到11000美金，与此同时，黄金、白银等贵金属也突破历史新高。
At last, Bitcoin came to $11,000 , while precious metals such as gold, silver and silver were out of history.
“黄金”、“比特币牛市”相继登上了微博热搜，有热门留言称：比特币牛市真的来了吗？黄金还能买吗？
“Golden” and “Bitcoin Cows” are on Twitter, and there's a hot message: "Is Bitcoin Cows really here? Can gold still be bought?"
是的，距离上次比特币突破11000美元已经过去了一年时间。
这一年内，比特币虽经历过“312”的跌破4000美金，然而大部分时间都是在9000美元～10000美元来回摆荡，甚至被戏称为“稳定币”。 In the course of the year, while Bitcoin experienced a fall of $4,000 in “312”, most of the time it was 9,000-10,000 dollars, or even called a “stable currency”. 究竟是什么，让比特币犹如穿云箭一样冲破11000美元？让黄金创九年新高？拨开层层云雾，本文将剖析比特币、黄金大涨之下的四类逻辑： What exactly is the strong that lets Bitcoin break $11,000 like a cloud arrow? 比特币被美国联邦法院定义为货币，是大涨的原因吗？ Is Bitcoin defined as a currency by the U.S. Federal Court as the reason for the huge increase? DeFi带来的财富效应，引起以太坊大涨，进而刺激比特币价格； (a) The wealth effect of DeFi, which triggered a huge rise in the Etherm, which in turn stimulated bitcoin prices; 比特币竟是美联储放水、美元弱势的受益者； Bitcoin is the beneficiary of the Fed's water supply and the weakness of the dollar. 经济陷入滞胀，资产价格却大涨，警惕滞胀风险。 The economy has stagnated, while asset prices have risen sharply to guard against the risks of stagnating. 日前，美国联邦法院表示，根据华盛顿法律，将比特币定义为货币。 Prior to 华盛顿特区首席法官 Beryl A.Howell说：“货币通常意味着一种交换媒介、支付方式或者价值存储手段，而比特币就是这样的东西。” Chief Justice Beryl A. Howell, Washington, D.C., said: “Money usually means a medium of exchange, a means of payment or a storage of value, and that's what Bitcoin does.” 有人说，这代表比特币得到了官方认可的合法“身份证”，因而币价大涨。 has been said to represent an officially recognized legal “identity card” of Bitcoin, which has resulted in a significant increase in currency prices. 但事实上，在美国大部分州，比特币都被州法认定为货币（Money），因此从事比特币相关的交易需要金融类牌照。 In fact, however, in most states of the United States, bitcoin is recognized by state law as money (Money) and therefore requires financial license plates to carry out transactions related to bitcoin. “压根不是什么新鲜事。“安融全球资本创始人蔡凯龙撰文称，华盛顿特区法官只不过是重申了比特币在州法内属于货币，这是一个美国数字货币交易界众所周知的事实。 is nothing new at all. ’s founder of inclusive global capital, Chai Kailong, wrote that a judge in Washington, D.C., merely reaffirmed that bitcoin is a currency in state law, a fact that is well known to the American digital currency trading community. 重申此事是为了对地下比特币交易平台的运营商Larry Dean Harmon进行刑事指控。 This was reiterated in order to bring criminal charges against Larry Dean Harmon, the operator of the underground Bitcoin trading platform. 根据美国联邦法律，经营货币相关业务需要相应的牌照，Harmon被指控经营无牌汇款业务，同时从事洗钱活动。据称，Harmon辩称比特币不是“货币”，他的平台也不是美国法典规定的“汇款业务”，最终被驳回。 According to United States federal law, carrying out money-related operations requires the appropriate licence plates, and Harmon is accused of operating unlicensed money transfer operations while engaging in money-laundering. Harmon allegedly argued that Bitcoin was not a “currency” and that his platform was not a “remittance business” under the United States Code, which was ultimately rejected. 不少人认为重申此事是对比特币的利好，殊不知，这实质上是对比特币的利空，这意味着在美国对比特币的监管将持续高压。 A number of people believe that reiteration of the matter is good for bitcoin and unknown, and that this is essentially bitcoin profit, which means that the regulation of bitcoin in the United States will continue to be high-handed. 美国联邦法院鉴定比特币是Money，而不是Currency。虽然都被翻译为“货币或者钱”，但Money含义更广，而Currency一般来说特指流通中的法定货币，比如美元。 蔡凯龙介绍，联邦层面上，真正对数字货币定性上最有话语权是美联储。而美联储表态数字货币不是真正的货币。 At the federal level, it is the Federal Reserve that really has the best say in characterization of digital currencies. The Fed is not a real currency. 总结起来，比特币是钱，但不是流通货币。 sums up that bitcoin is money, but it's not a currency in circulation. 所以，比特币取得官方身份证，不过是一部分人的一厢情愿罢了，此轮比特币的上涨与最近的监管政策并没有太大关系。 So Bitcoin's official ID card is just a part of people's will, and the increase in this round of Bitcoin is not so much related to recent regulatory policy. 比特币真正大涨的原因是什么？ What's the real reason why Bitcoin's really up? 在行业资深人士看来，本轮比特币大涨的逻辑是 DeFi代币的财富效应。 In the opinion of senior industry figures, the logic behind the sharp increase in the Bitcoin in this round is the wealth effect of DeFi. OKEx Research首席研究员William表示，在加密货币市场来看，DeFi概念是这次上涨的主要推动力，由ETH领涨，并带动了包括BTC在内的加密货币市场整体上涨。 William, the principal researcher, OKEx Research, stated that the DeFi concept was the main driving force behind the increase, with the ETH rising and the overall rise in the encrypt currency market, including the BTC. DeFi是Decentralized Finance（去中心化金融）的缩写，Compound领衔的“流动性挖矿”带来DeFi代币的暴涨，十倍币、百倍币的神话吸引投资人涌入。 DeFi is the acronym of Decentralized Finance (decentralized finance) , and Comboud's title of “mobility mining” has led to a surge in DeFi's currency, with myths of ten-fold and 100-fold attracting investors. 过去4个月内，DeFi的锁仓价值翻了 4 倍，从10 亿美金到 40 亿美金。 In the last four months, the value of DeFi's lockup has doubled four times, from $1 billion to $4 billion. 目前，DeFi主要基于以太坊公链，也就是说，ETH 是用户进入 DeFi的入场券，大部分用户需要锁定以太坊来参与DeFI投资。 At present, DeFi is based mainly on the Etherm chain, which means that ETH is the user's entry ticket to DeFi, and most users of DeFipulse数据显示，在过去的一个半月时间，整个DeFi链上锁定ETH数量涨了 60%。 DeFipulse data show that over the past month and a half, the number of locks on the entire DeFi chain has risen by 60 per cent. 另一种不可忽视的解释是，以太坊的上涨是因为即将到来的ETH 2.0。最近， 以太坊创始人V神也透露，正在推动ETH 2.0 阶段1 的实施工作。 Another explanation that cannot be ignored is that the rise in the Etherm is due to the coming ETH 2.0 在过去一周内，以太坊涨了 35%。比特币涨了 18.7%，且上涨集中在近三天。 In the past week, the Etherium has risen by 35%. Bitcoin has risen by 18.7%, and the rise has been concentrated in almost three days. 以上这些数字，归纳总结成币圈的逻辑就是，DeFi和 ETH 2.0 带动 ETH 上涨，而ETH 的上涨刺激了比特币的大涨。 The logic behind these figures, summing up into currency circles, is that 但根据CMC数据，整个加密货币市场 63%由比特币主导，而以太坊市值只占 11%。比特币市值是以太坊的约 6倍。 But according to CMC data, 63% of the entire encrypted currency market is dominated by bitcoin, while the market value of Ethio is only 11%. Bitcoin is about six times more than the market value of Taicha. “如果只是价格上涨驱动资金入场，又没有新人入场，那以太坊刺激比特币价格上涨的理由不太站得住脚。“有业内人士提出了反对意见。 “If only price increases drive money to enter and no newcomers to enter, there is no valid reason to stimulate price increases in bitcoin. has raised objections. “橙皮书”则认为，DeFi如此小众、细分的领域，吸引的基本是DeFi行业的创业者以及之前玩Dapp、做交易的炒币用户。颇高的操作门槛和认知门槛，很难吸引圈外的用户。 The Orange Book, for its part, argues that DeFi is such a small, segmented area that it attracts essentially entrepreneurs in the DeFi industry, as well as customers who used to play Dapp and trade in coins. High operating and cognitive thresholds make it difficult to attract users outside the circle. 比特币的大涨，DeFi或许只是一个引子。比特币大涨的真实肇因，或许来自圈外，毕竟那里才有动辄撬动千亿美元的资金。 The sharp rise in bitcoin, and DeFi is perhaps just a lead. The real cause of the huge rise in bitcoin, perhaps from outside the circle, is that there's only money there that moves hundreds of billions of dollars. 除了比特币，黄金、白银、美股……几乎所有资产价格都在上涨，屡创新高。 Except for Bitcoin, gold, silver, and United States shares... Nearly all assets are in a state of rising and rising prices. 时隔九年，国际金价7月27日突破1940美元关口，再创历史新高；白银价格同样大幅上扬，在周一涨超7%，收于每盎司24.50美元，创下近七年来收盘新高。 Nine years later, on 27 July, international gold prices broke the threshold of $1940 and reached an all-time high; the price of silver also rose sharply, rising by over 7 per cent on Monday, at $24.50 per ounce, bringing it to a new high of nearly seven years. 唯一落寞的是这些资产背后的计价工具——美元。 The only thing missing from 在交易员Mike看来，美元的弱势周期才是各类资产价格上涨的导火索。 In the view of trader Mike, the weak cycle of the United States dollar is the trigger for higher prices for all types of assets. 7月28日前，美元指数连续九个交易日下跌，在跌破95关口后，盘中一度跌至93.47，进一步刷新近两年低点。 Prior to 28 July, the United States dollar index had fallen for nine consecutive trading days and, after falling through the 95th gate, it had fallen to 93.47, and 美元大跌，黄金、比特币大涨，背后都有避险情绪升温的因素，总结起来主要有如下四个原因： There are four main reasons for the fall of the dollar and the rise in gold and bitcoins, as well as for the risk-eating factors : 全球疫情愈演愈烈，美国疫情反弹； The global epidemic is on the rise, and the American epidemic is rebounding; 中美关系紧张，对立加剧； (a) Tensions and increased confrontation between China and the United States; 逆全球化趋势加剧； (b) Increased counter-globalization trends; 美国大选加剧不确定性。 The general elections in the United States have increased uncertainty. 据统计，7月28日美国累计确诊病例数超过437万，死亡人数达到15万，平均每小时新增病例超过2600例，为世界最高。 According to statistics, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States on 28 July exceeded 4.37 million, resulting in 150,000 deaths, with an average of more than 2,600 new cases per hour, the highest in the world. 毫无疑问，疫情加剧会拖累整个美国经济。投资者预计疫情之下，美国经济复苏难以跑赢其他国家，选择继续抛售美元。 There is no doubt that the increase in the epidemic will drag the entire US economy. Investors expect that the US recovery will be difficult to win over other countries and choose to continue selling the dollar. “美元岌岌可危，”道明证券（TD Securities）驻纽约资深外汇策略师Mazen Issa表示，“此刻，美元疲弱的心态已经根深蒂固了”。 , “The dollar is at risk,” said Mazen Issa, a senior foreign exchange strategist in New York, , who stated that “at this moment, the weak mentality of the dollar is deeply entrenched”. 除开外部因素大的影响，美元最大的危机来源于自身，美国政府债务高企，美联储持续放水正将美元推入险境，助力黄金大涨。 In addition to the impact of external factors, the biggest crisis in the United States dollar was its own, the high debt of the United States Government, and the continued release of water by the Federal Reserve was putting the dollar at risk and contributing to a sharp rise in gold. 天底下没有新鲜事！ Nothing new in the world! 从2008年12月至2011年6月，美联储购买了2.3万亿（兆）美元国债，并将借贷成本维持在接近零的水平，以支撑经济成长，帮助推动金价在2011年9月升至1921.17美元的纪录高位。 From December 2008 to June 2011, the Federal Reserve purchased US$ 2.3 trillion in national debt and kept borrowing costs close to zero to support economic growth and helped drive the gold price to a record high of US$ 1921.17 in September 2011. 数据显示，美国联邦债务规模目前已经接近26.5万亿美元。作为美债“头号买家”和“接盘侠”，面对不断攀升的债务规模，美联储开启无限量化宽松模式，印钞机马力全开，大举支持购债计划实施。 The data show that the size of US federal debt is now close to US$ 26.5 trillion. As the “first buyer” and the “take-over” of US debt, in the face of rising debt size, the Fed has set in motion a model of unlimited quantitative easing, the printing machine is fully functional, and a massive campaign of support for debt acquisition is under way. 最近，美联储资产负债表略微出现收缩，但这也是副作用显现的时候，表明市场上已经有足够多的“钱”，流动性充足。但前期大水漫灌，疫情愈演愈烈，经济持续低迷，使得这些资金必须寻求更高收益的配置才能保证不贬值，于是便要寻求全球布局。 Recently, the Fed’s balance sheet has contracted slightly, but this is also when the side effects show that there is already enough “money” in the market and sufficient liquidity. , however, the previous flood of water, the epidemic has intensified and the economy continues to be depressed, making it necessary for these funds to seek better income allocation to ensure that they do not depreciate, and thus to seek a global layout. 黄金，当仁不让，成为金融机构眼中理想的保值避险资产。 Gold, if it is not allowed to do so, becomes the ideal value-avoidance asset in the eyes of financial institutions. 德意志银行顶级策略师Jim Reid指出，在货币的长期历史中，法定货币将成“过眼云烟”，黄金是绝对货币对冲工具。 According to the top German bank strategist, Jim Reid, in the long history of the currency, the legal currency will be “overlooking” and gold is an absolute currency hedging tool. Reid的结论是，黄金绝对是一种货币对冲工具。不仅如此，更重要的是，无论接下来的货币体系是什么，黄金都是一种过渡性资产。 除了黄金，被认为是“数字黄金“的比特币也成为美联储放水，美元弱势的受益者，并且由于市值较小，更容易拉升。 In addition to gold, bitcoin, which is considered “digital gold”, has also become a vulnerable beneficiary of the Federal Reserve, with the United States dollar, and is easier to lift because of its small market value. “大众很难理解比特币这种新型的投资品，因此一直被部分人认为与黄金一样具有避险功能，并加以宣传，吸引了一部分资金进入，在一定程度上也促进了比特币价格的上涨”，William如此表示。 “It is difficult for the general public to understand a new type of investment like Bitcoin, and therefore `strong' has been perceived by some as having the same risk avoidance function as gold and has been promoted, attracting a portion of the money and, to some extent, contributing to the price increase of bitcoin 几乎所有资产价格都在大涨，一些人满眼金光，渴望财务自由。一些人却看到了危险：疫情危机，经济萎靡不振，甚至陷入衰退。 Almost all asset prices are rising, and some are looking for financial freedom. Some see the danger: a crisis, a weak economy, and even a recession. 为何资产价格还在不断攀升？这可持续吗？ Why is asset prices still rising? Is this sustainable? 这不禁让人想起了美国70年代的经济困境——滞涨！ This reminds us of the economic difficulties of the United States in the '70s -- stagnating! 所谓滞胀，是指增长停滞+通货膨胀并存的现象。 The so-called stagnating is a combination of stagnant growth and inflation. 根据凯恩斯的经济理论，政府扩大开支刺激经济，虽然会导致通货膨胀，但总是能降低失业、提振经济，通货膨胀与失业率的这种反向运动，被称为为“菲利普斯曲线”。 According to Keynesian economic theory, the expansion of government spending to stimulate the economy, while leading to inflation, can always reduce unemployment, boost the economy, and this reverse movement of inflation and unemployment, known as the “Phillips curve”, is called. 但20世纪70年代之后，菲利普斯曲线失灵，高通胀与高失业、低增长并存。 But after the 1970s, the Phillips curve failed and high inflation coexisted with high unemployment and low growth. 1980年，美国通货膨胀高达13.55%，GDP增长-0.26%。这段时期，人们承受着失业与通胀的双重打击，凯恩斯的刺激政策失灵了。 In 1980, inflation in the United States was 13.55 per cent, GDP growth - 0.26 per cent. During this period, people suffered the double blow of unemployment and inflation, and Keynes’ stimulus failed. 如今， 美国经济滞涨的身影再次出现。 Today, the economic stagnation of the United States has reappeared. 摩根士丹利亚洲区前主席Stephen Roach表示，由于美国巨大的预算赤字，美元的崩溃或许难以避免。在进口越来越多更贵的外国产品后，通胀会升温，并且利率跌至负值。” Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said that the collapse of the United States dollar might be inevitable because of the huge budget deficit in the United States. When more and more expensive foreign products are imported, inflation will warm and interest rates will fall to negative values.” Roach认为，美国经济甚至可能陷入上世纪70年代末的滞胀状态。 According to Roach, the United States economy may even be stagnating at the end of the 1970s. 在货币学家来看，滞胀的原因在于货币增长率超过经济增长率，货币政策逐渐失灵，弗里德曼因此提出了那句名言，“通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一个货币现象”。 In the eyes of money scientists, the reason for the stagnating was that the growth rate of the currency exceeded the rate of economic growth and that monetary policy was failing, and Friedman therefore put forward the term “inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and in any place”. 全球经济经过一轮又一轮大水漫灌似的信贷刺激，阈值提高，货币政策的效力逐渐减弱，形成了“放水副作用大，但不得不放水”的恶性循环。 The global economy has seen a vicious circle of 全球经济低增长，为了避免衰退，央行不得不维持低利率，甚至是负利率，但实际经济的投资收益率也越来越低。 Global economic growth is low, and in order to avoid a recession, central banks have to maintain low, even negative, interest rates, but the return on investment in the real economy is decreasing. 在生产力并未明显进步的情况下，经济发展依靠不断膨胀的债务驱动，全球的债务规模越来越大、根本停不下来，即使维持当下的GDP总量也需要更多的债务。 In the absence of significant progress in productivity, economic development is driven by rising debt, which is growing in scale and never stopping globally, and even more debt is needed to sustain the current GDP stock. 高负债、低利率，这么多凭空印出来这么多钱都去哪了呢？ Where's all this money printed out of thin air? 毫无疑问，在借贷中产生的海量资金选择去追逐少量的资产、并推高资产价格，形成了巨大的泡沫，比如美国的股市。 There is no doubt that large sums of money generated from borrowing have opted to pursue a small amount of assets and to push asset prices up, creating huge bubbles, such as the United States stock market. 谁享受到了这些资产泡沫的红利呢？答案很明显，有钱人。 Who gets the dividends of these asset bubbles? The answer is obvious, rich people. 银行从来不会雪中送炭，只会锦上添花，他们更愿意以超低的利率把资金放款给有钱人。 Banks never send charcoal in the snow, they only add flowers, and they prefer to lend money to the rich at very low interest rates. 富人拿到低成本的资金、再拿这些钱去投资具有泡沫潜质的资产，比如楼市、股市，甚至是黄金、比特币，结果就是资产价格泡沫膨胀。富人的财富进一步提高，贫富差距日趋严重。 The rich get low-cost money and then invest it in bubble-potential assets, such as building markets, stock markets, even gold, and bitcoin, with the result that asset-price bubbles expand. The wealth of the rich increases further, and the gap between the rich and the poor widens. 深潮TechFlow研究员李枫认为，不同于70年代的物价全面通胀，如今由于定向放水让少数人受益，新的滞胀是“经济停滞，资产泡沫价格膨胀”。 According to TechFlow Researcher Lee, unlike the full price inflation of the 1970s, the new stagnation is “economic stagnation and asset bubble price inflation” as a result of targeted water discharges that benefit a few people today. 信贷宽松没有推动经济增长、增加财富创造、更多造成了贫富差距的扩大。 Credit easing has not promoted economic growth, increased wealth creation and increased the gap between rich and poor. 通过印钞放水、刺激经济的手段已走入穷途末路，二战后延续的信用法币体系受到了挑战，而新冠疫情加速了这个进程，因此，黄金、比特币等超主权资产受到追捧。 The economy was being stimulated by banknotes, and the credit-law system, which had continued after World War II, had been challenged, while the new crown epidemic had accelerated the process and, as a result, ultra-sovereign assets such as gold and bitcoin had been pursued. “作为普通人，建议对资产进行更加合理的配置，长周期来看建议增加中国核心公司的股票、适当配置黄金、比特币作为对冲”，李枫如此建议，“富人才想着增值，穷人能保值就好”。 “As ordinary people, it is recommended that assets be more rationally configured and, over a long period of time, that the stocks of China's core companies be increased, that gold be properly configured, and that Bitcoin be used as a hedge” 
无论如何，比特币被称为稳定币的日子暂时结束了。强势的上涨，“比特币牛市”的热搜，将会吸引一波新人入市。
In any case, the days when Bitcoin is called the stable currency are temporarily over. A strong rise, a hot search of the “bitcoin cow” will attract a wave of newcomers to the market.
投资有风险，入门需谨慎。根据 William 的说法，目前比特币的RSI指标（相对强弱指标）已经突破 80，这预示着市场已经进入了超买状态，“如果此时买入比特币，会面临较大的风险”。
Investments are risky, and the entry is cautious. According to William, the current RSI indicator for Bitcoin (relatively strong and weak) has broken 80, which portends that the market is already in a state of overpurchase and that “if it buys bitcoin at this time, it will be at greater risk” .
*深潮TechFLow提示各位投资者防范追高风险，本文所提观点不构成任何投资建议。
The view presented here does not constitute an investment proposal.
本文为专栏作者授权创业邦发表，版权归原作者所有。文章系作者个人观点，不代表创业邦立场，转载请联系原作者。如有任何疑问，请联系editor@cyzone.cn。
Please contact the original author at editor@cyzone.cn>.
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