作者 | Andrew Keys
By Andrew Keys
译者 | 王艳妮
The translator, Janie Wang.
责编 | 唐小引
Mr. Tang Xiaoguin.
封图 | 付费下载自 VCG
Downloaded on a fee basis from VCG
出品 | 区块链大本营（ID：blockchain_camp）
Block Chain Base Camp (ID: Blockchai_camp)
作为 Digital Asset Risk Management Advisors（DARMA Capital）的任事股东，以及区块链软件界巨头 ConsenSys 的全球业务开发部的前负责人，我对区块链技术的快速发展，加密货币市场的极端不稳定性，新兴的生态系统，以及去中心化文化等已经有了很深的洞见。让我来告诉你吧：区块链将在 2020 年进入关键时期，这个关键阶段将决定的不只是加密货币的未来，还包括区块链以及去中心化理念的未来。
As a incumbent shareholder of the Digital Asset Risk Management Services (DARMA Capital), and former head of the global business development department of the block chain software community ConsenSys, I have a deep insight into the rapid development of block chain technology, the extreme volatility of the crypto-currency market, emerging ecosystems, and decentralized culture. Let me tell you: the block chain will enter a critical period in 2020, which will determine not only the future of encrypted money, but also the future of the block chain and the concept of decentralization.
系好安全带，惊险刺激的旅程就要开始了。以下就是对 2020 年区块链领域的 20 个预测。
Fasten your seatbelts, and the adventure journey is about to begin. Here's 20 predictions for the 2020 block chain.
以太坊现在的速度就好比 1996 年的拨号互联网（仅 14.4kbps），但很快它将赶上宽带的水平
还记得拨号上网的时代吗？让我们回到 1996 年：尽管 AOL 很快就变得家喻户晓，但上网对大多数人来说却意味着需要交换各种纠缠在一起的线路，并占着电话线，可就算这样也只能以蜗牛般的速度访问到有限的互联网产品。通过这 14.4kpbs 网速的连接，勇敢的零售消费者可以浏览万维网，同时以每秒 1.8kbs 的速度传输数据。下载 1M 字节的数据耗时高达 9 分钟。所有互联网内容都是基于文本的，但网络确实通了！普通人都能看出来这项技术以后会有用，但是却很少有人能预测到互联网会在几年之间便给世界带来全面的社会和经济变革。 Remember the age of dial-up Internet access? Let's go back to 1996: while AOL soon became home-crowded, access to the Internet meant for most people that there was a need to exchange entangled lines and to hold telephone lines, even if only to access a limited number of Internet products at a snail speed. With this 14.4 kpbs speed connection, courageous retail consumers can browse the World Wide Web and transmit data at 1.8 kbs per second. The downloading of 1M byte data takes up to 9 minutes. All Internet content is text-based, but the Internet does work. 听起来有点耳熟？现在的区块链跟当年的互联网是完全一样的。区块链时代的 2020 年相当于互联网时代的 1996 年。根据摩尔定律，区块链的发展也会像当初的互联网一样进入高速发展的时代，而以太坊 2.0 将是一个巨大的红色按钮，按下就能带领我们脱离拨号速度，进入宽带速度的时代。 It sounds familiar. Now the block chain is exactly the same as the Internet. The year 2020 of the block chain era is equivalent to the year 1996 of the Internet. According to Moor's law, the block chain will also grow into the age of rapid growth, as the Internet did, and Ether 2.0 will be a huge red button that will lead us out of dialling speed and into the age of broadband speed. 所有的迹象都表明，几乎所有行业和领先企业都在研究如何实施区块链，各国政府害怕在竞争中落后所以都在争先恐后地追赶，而现在基础架构要素已经就位，就等开发人员来开发，部署和扩展产品了。2020 年，我们将开始看到一个真实的去中心化的未来是什么样的。 All indications suggest that almost all industries and leading firms are looking at how to implement the block chain, that governments are fighting to catch up because they fear falling behind in the competition, and that the infrastructure elements are now in place, waiting for developers to develop, deploy, and expand their products. In 2020, we will begin to see what a real decentralized future is. 比特币和区块链将最终分道扬镳 比特币应被尊称为数字资产界的元老。它融合了加密技术，对等网络，虚拟机和共识形成算法，可以优雅地解决“双花”和“拜占庭将军问题”。尽管如此，时间的脚步还是不会停下。那些认为比特币是去中心化技术发展重心的比特币至上主义者们恐怕要经历梦醒时分了。 Bitcoin should be known as the senior member of the digital asset community. It combines encryption techniques, peer-to-peer networks, virtual machines and consensus-building algorithms, and can resolve the problems of “double flowers” and “General Byzantine” in an elegant manner. 随着区块链达到一个发展的分水岭，世界将认识到一个关键的差异，而这个差异发烧友可能已经非常熟悉了——那就是比特币、以太坊和所有其他去中心化技术之间的区别。比特币上升成为数字黄金的过程十分惊人，标志着一个崭新的技术经济时代的开始。但是数字黄金也仅仅是一个开始而已。 As the block chain reaches a watershed of development, the world will recognize a key difference that may already be familiar with – the difference between Bitcoin, Etheria, and all other de-centralized technologies. The process by which bitcoin rises to digital gold is amazing and marks the beginning of a new technological economy. But digital gold is just the beginning. 黄金目前的市值为 8 万亿美元。这的确是一个天文数字，但对于比特币这种“数字黄金”来说，它代表了潜在市场机会的上限。像以太坊这样基于智能合约的区块链将会把全球经济数字化，并在整个资产和流程范围内释放价值。相应地，去中心化网络也会深入地球上每个行业最末端的角落。我们将能够以数字方式表示法定货币、黄金、软件许可、股权、债务、衍生产品、信用度积分、声誉等级，甚至以及更多我们无法想象的内容。这是一个估值超过 80 万亿美元的市场机会。比特币是个单一的特殊用例。相比之下，以太坊有着无限多个用例。 Accordingly, decentralized networks will reach the bottom corners of every industry on Earth. We will be able to quantify the legal currency, gold, software licences, equity, debt, derivatives, credit scores, credit ratings, credit ratings, and even more than we can imagine. This is a market opportunity worth more than $8 trillion. Bitcoins are a single special case. 全球经济衰退的阴霾并未消散，法定货币要警惕！ The shadow of the global recession has not dissipated, and the legal currency must be vigilant! 多年来，全球经济一直被不确定性笼罩着。现在已经不是“是否”的问题了，而是“什么时候”纸牌屋就会轰然倒塌，并对世界产生重大影响了。欧洲可能是率先遭遇衰退的国家。看一下欧洲五个最大的经济体就一目了然了。德国的德意志银行仅仅是在维持着生命。英国多年来一直因为脱欧而自毁长城。法国上下一直处于抗议的状态。西班牙和意大利的经济正在垂死挣扎。目前来看，欧盟只是一个名义上的联盟了，越来越大的分歧将使许多国家变得特别脆弱。 The global economy has been surrounded by uncertainty for many years. It is now not a question of whether or not, but of when the cardboard house will collapse and have a major impact on the world. Europe may be the first country to experience recession. 至于美国，让我来为您描绘两个现实：2020 年，中国和美国终于达成了一项真正的贸易协议。美国经济顺风顺水地进入 2021 年，唐纳德·特朗普再次当选。股市飙升阶段有了另一根支柱。纸牌屋又挺过了一天。如果没有贸易协议或者连任，并且全球经济进一步受到挑战的话，那么量化宽松狂潮可能会跌至谷底，并且世界各地许多国家货币的价值将面临前所未有的挑战。法定货币的价值可能会因为极端的通胀而经历急剧贬值。 As for the United States, let me paint two realities for you: China and the United States finally reached a real trade deal in 2020. The United States economy went smoothly into 2021, and Donald Trump was re-elected. There was another pillar in the stock-market boom. The card house went through another day. If there was no trade deal or re-election, and the global economy was further challenged, the tide of quantitative easing could fall to the bottom, and the value of the currencies of many countries around the world would face unprecedented challenges. 与黄金和石油相似，数字资产具有稀缺的特性。如果危机爆发，那么数字资产类别将成为传统中央银行系统的避险工具。这是因为传统中央银行系统在危机时期会采用印刷来发行货币，而这样会使货币贬值。 When a crisis breaks out, the digital asset class will become a hedge tool for the traditional central banking system. This is because the traditional central banking system will use printing to issue money in times of crisis, which will depreciate the currency. 在中国加密货币和区块链领域的大动作之后，美国将不得不加紧追赶 After 2020 年 1 月，一套新的法规将生效，代表着中国政府的立场转而支持区块链技术。很明显，中国正在采取行动。像美国这样的从前在支持区块链发展上反应有些迟钝的国家，只能被迫追赶，结果会给整个行业带来巨大的净收益。 In January 2020, a new set of regulations will come into effect, representing the Chinese government’s position in favour of block chain technology. Clearly, China is taking action. 我们将继续朝以太坊 2.0 前进 We're going to proceed to Etheria 2.0. 我们期待已久的伊斯坦布尔硬分叉（以太坊 1.0 的最终硬分叉）已成功部署。而缪尔冰川难度炸弹延迟更新是锦上添花。Vitalik Buterin 已经发布了信标链的区块链管理器，向着以太坊 2.0 的行军正在迅速展开。权益证明以太坊是存在的。它活了！Serenity 路线图完全生效了。2020 年以太坊将迅速跨过第 0 阶段，进入第 1 阶段并启动分片链。然后，游戏就开始了。 The long-awaited Istanbul hard fork (Etheria 1.0 final hard fork) has been successfully deployed. The late renewal of the Müle Glacier difficulty bomb has been added. Vitalik Buterin has released a block chain manager for the beacon chain, and the movement towards Ether 2.0 is moving fast. The rights prove that Ether is there. It's alive. The Serenity road map is fully in force. 以太坊开发人员已经证明了自己创造奇迹的能力。而这个去中心化团队现在正雄心勃勃地朝着路线图的目标大步迈进，而这就是区块链未来会成功的最重要标志了。对于普通的旁观者来说，升级过程可能显得漫长而曲折，但是磨刀不误砍柴工，合理地开发网络所花费的额外时间将使人类整体受益。尽管 Web2 是由“快速移动，打破常规”这样的理念定义的，但是 Web3 应该是以“这次要做正确的事情”这样的话来指导的。 For ordinary bystanders, the process of upgrading may seem long and arduous, but the extra time spent justly developing the network will benefit the human race as a whole. Although the Web2 is defined by the concept of “fast move, breaking the norm,” the Web3 should be guided by the words “doing the right thing this time.” 第二层扩展的解决方案将为以太坊增压 The solution to the extension of the second layer of ogre 像 onion 及其他区块链网络一样，都是与层有关的。随着伊斯坦布尔硬分叉的推出，以太坊正朝着第一层的 2.0 级可扩展性迈进。Joe Lubin 去年在 SXSW 上表示，以太坊将以每秒数百万笔的速度处理交易。它是通过对第一层网络的稳定升级与对第二层扩展的集成来实现的。 With the introduction of Istanbul's hard fork, the Taipan is moving towards tier 2.0 scalability. Joe Lubin, on SXSW last year, said that Tai Pa would handle transactions at a rate of millions per second. This was done through the steady upgrade of the first level of the network and the integration of the extension of the second layer. Poon 和 Buterik 提出的 Plasma“区块链上的区块链”解决方案不仅聪明绝顶而且具有先见之明，它催生了整个第二层开发领域。分片链目前可能占据很大的舆论争议，但是随着 Celer、Connext 和 Counterfactual 的开发，状态通道将成为巨大的地下菌丝数据网络（massive mycelial data network underground），释放主链使其不受状态权重的束缚。侧链将迅速处理大量的低风险交易。像 Raiden 这样的支付渠道将实现即时令牌支付（instantaneous token transfer），而 ZK-Snarks 将保证在交易行为中您的所有数据都处于保密状态。技术栈都已经在那里了，2020 年我们将见证 2.0 的诞生。 Poon and Buterik put forward the Plasma “block chain on the block chain” solution, which is not only brilliant, but also predisposing the entire second layer of development. The segment chain may now hold much controversy, but with the development of Celer, Connext and Councilfactual, the state access will become a huge underground mycelium data network (massive mycelia data network underground), freeing the main chain from the weight of state power. The side chain will quickly handle a large number of low-risk transactions. Payment channels like Raiden will achieve instant payment, and ZK-Snark will ensure that all your data are kept confidential in the transaction. 同时，Plasma 的 Optimistic Virtual Rollup 等创新技术意味着项目不必等待所需的交易吞吐量就能蓬勃发展。这太重大了。在过去，区块链的扩展仅仅停留在理论和希望的层面。这种这种情况不复存在了！不可思议的，遍布全球的，去中心化的以太坊开发团队将用技术改变世界，而我们对此都将永远心怀感激。 At the same time, innovative technologies such as the Optimistic Virtual Rollup of Plasma mean that the project can flourish without waiting for the required transactional throughput. This is too big. In the past, the extension of the block chain was merely at the level of theory and hope. This is no longer the case. Incredibly, all over the globe, the decentralized Ether development team will use technology to change the world, and we will always be grateful for that. Web3.0 堆栈的各层上线 一个去中心化的的环境不仅仅涉及分片和节点，我们将在 2020 年认识到这一点。Web 3.0 将由连接智能合约，文件存储，消息传递，支付渠道，侧链，以及 oracles 等等的 mesh 网络定义。2020 年将见证 Web3.0 的很多必备基础设施元素投入使用。 A decentralised environment involves more than just fragments and nodes, which we will recognize in 2020. Web 3.0 will be linked to smart contracts, document storage, messaging, payment channels, side chains, etc. 什么是 Web3.0？以下是简介： What is Web3.0? The following is a brief description: 各种资产的数字化：股票，债券，法定货币，电子货币，忠诚度积分，软件许可，碧昂斯演唱会门票，保险单，其他衍生品以及很多从前无法想象的其他资产，都将实现原生数字化。 The digitization of various assets: equities, bonds, legal currencies, electronic currency, integrity credits, software licences, Beyoncé concert tickets, insurance policies, other derivatives and many other assets that could not have been imagined in the past will be proto-digitized. 协议的自动化：Microsoft Word 法律文档将变成数字化的 If> Then>Else 这样的计算机代码，这些代码将以不可靠的方式转移上面所说的那些数字资产，从而创造出全新的商业模式，比如一份按分钟付款的雇佣协议，一件在每次从一个拥有者出售给另一个拥有者时向艺术家支付使用费的艺术品，一处可以在每次收到租金时自动向其投资者支付利息的房产，一种每当歌曲被播放时就在乐队成员之间分配收入的功能，或将一个电子有效地路由到微电网的不同部分的能力。 Automation of protocols: Microsoft Word legal documents will be transformed into digital If> Then> Else computer codes that will transfer the digital assets described above in an unreliable manner, thus creating new business models, such as a minutes-by-minute employment agreement, an art that pays a user fee to an artist every time a owner sells to another owner, a property that can automatically pay interest to its investors at every rent received, a function that distributes income among band members whenever a song is played, or the ability to direct an electronic and efficient route to different parts of the microgrid. 自主身份（Self-Sovereign Identity）：无需登录 Airbnb，Facebook，Uber，您只需登录自己的自主浏览器，就能使用同等的租用酒店房间，使用社交媒体或打车等服务。但是这样的服务是点对点发生的，而不像传统的应用程序那样需要通过薄层的寻租中介。您会因为在社交媒体上观看广告而每天得到一美元的报酬，而扎克伯格不会得到这部分钱，您的乘车和购房费用将仅相当于现在的 2/3。 Self-identification (Self-Sovereign Identity): You do not need to log in Airbnb, Facebook, Uber, you can just log in your own autonomous browser and use the same rental hotel room, social media, taxis, etc. 举一些例子：星际文件系统（Interplanetary File System, IPFS）已经显示了去中心化网络上数据文件存储的性质。Protocol Labs 的 Filecoin 项目建立在 IPFS 上，以租用用户的硬盘空间来进行加密。该平台计划于 3 月启动，而测试链（testnet）才刚启动不久。 To give some examples: Interplanary File System (IPFS) already shows the nature of data files stored on decentralised networks. Protocol Labs’ Filecoin project is built on IPFS to encrypt the user's hard disk space. The platform is scheduled to be launched in March, and the test chain (testnet) has only just been activated. Helium 是一个 mesh 网络，参与人可以在那上面购买 500 美元以下的节点来为物联网设备提供较低的带宽。Delphi Digital 的 Tom Shaughnessy 最近指出：“自 2019 年 8 月 1 日启用以来，网络上已上线了超过 2,130 个节点，覆盖了 425 多个城市，占美国州总数的 90％。在 Verizon 的 IoT 成本下（600KB /年/$ 12），Helium 比 Verizon 的定价低了 99.9988％（24 字节，或者说 0.024 KB 售价 0.00001 美元）。我们应该期待下一代手机服务提供商，数据存储商以及任何中介通过一个去中心化的的万维网来进行这种价格整合。 Helium is a mesh network where participants can purchase nodes of less than $500 to provide lower bandwidth for the network equipment. Delphi Digital, Tom Shaughnessy, recently noted: “since its launch on 1 August 2019, the network has been online more than 2,130 nodes, covering more than 425 cities, representing 90% of the total number of states in the United States. Under the Iot cost of Verizon (600 KB/year/$12), Heliium is 99.9988% (24 bytes, or 0.024 KB at a sale price of 0.00001). We should expect the next generation of mobile phone service providers, data repositories, and any intermediaries to integrate this price through a web site that goes to the centre. Kyle Samani 以及 Multicoin Capital 的团队在绘制潜在的 Web3.0 软件堆栈方面做了出色的工作，其中用到了一些公司试图提供解决方案的例子。尽管它仍处于早期阶段，但在 Web3.0 堆栈的所有层级上，我们都将看到对霸权地位的竞争。Web3.0 堆栈可能看起来比较像这样： Kyle Samani and the Multicoin Capital team have done excellent work in mapping potential Web3.0 software stacks, using examples of companies trying to provide solutions. Although it is still in its early stages, we will see competition for hegemonic status at all levels of the Web3.0 stack. The Web3.0 stack may look more like this: 图自：Multicoin Capital From: Multicoin Capital 预计在 2021 年之前区块链格局将发生彻底改变 anticipates a complete change in the pattern of blocks by 2021 . 在 2021 年之前，我们将对像 Near，Polkadot，Dfinity 和 Nervos 这样新型的第一层区块链网络是否能够为区块链生态系统做出实质性贡献这一问题有个更清晰的认知。竞争是好的，我提醒大家，我们的目标是全球范围内的去中间化，去中心化，以及信任的商品化，而不是某个品牌的协议获胜。也就是说，向着第一层霸权的冲刺仅仅刺激了以太坊 2.0 的发展，许多竞争元素正在试验开发最佳区块链产品的新方法。谁能成功取决于开发人员和用户。 By 2021, we will have a clearer idea of whether a new network of block chains, such as Near, Polkadot, Dfinity and Nervos, can make a substantial contribution to block chain ecosystems. Competition is good, and I remind you that our goal is global centristization, decentralization, and the commodification of trust, rather than a brand agreement. That is to say, the push to the first layer of hegemony has only stimulated the development of Ethio 2.0, and many of the competing elements are experimenting with new approaches to the development of the best block chain products. 以太坊目前为止仍然保持着最强劲的开发者参与度。有人认为这场比赛是成王败寇，但开发这项新技术可以收获的太多了，竞争中的合作将为所有人提供动力。满足特定需求的专用区块链也可能会出现。第 1 层领域新出现的竞争者将不得不应对 Matteo Leibovitz 的“分配四难困境”，它规定了新网络在推出时必须同时满足以产生货币溢价的标准。分别是： There is still one of the strongest developers to be involved. Some argue that this competition is a success, but that there are too many gains to be made in developing this new technology, and that cooperation in competition will provide an incentive for all. A chain of dedicated blocks to meet specific needs may also emerge. New competitors in the first tier will have to deal with Matteo Leibovitz’s “diffusion dilemma”, which stipulates that the new network must meet the criteria for generating a currency premium at the same time as it is launched:
广泛/公平的分配
Broad/equitable distribution
创收
Income generation
上涨潜力
Increased potential
合法合规
Legal compliance
最大的挑战是第四条。如果一个 VC 或很多比特币鲸鱼拥有大量网络令牌的话（在第一层“以太坊杀手”中很常见），将很难使 SEC 相信令牌（token）不是证券，这意味着所有这些巨额投资只会破坏 VC 储钱罐。
The biggest challenge is Article IV. If a VC or many bitcoin whales have a large number of web tokens (as is common in the first tier of the “Ethio-Skillers”), it will be difficult to convince the SEC that the token is not a security, which means that all these huge investments will only destroy the VC money storage tanks.
Libra 的苦难将会继续
The suffering of Libra will continue.
Facebook 的 Libra 将不会在 2020 年以任何形式上线。这个所谓的“去中心化的披着羊皮的狼”已经做了很多工作，将区块链带到了全球舆论的风口浪尖——这挺好的，但是有时也不好。但是该公司正在迅速认识到，即使是亿万富翁策划的最佳计划，共识和部署也并不总是会按计划展开。真正上线时，Libra 毫无疑问将为数十亿人的教育和采用助力。Farmville 和加密货币吗？好期待呀！然而，在这之前，考虑到中国最近放松的政策，期待像微信，支付宝和阿里巴巴这样的组织将在这一领域积极争取成为先行者。随着我们进入美国的另一个选举年，对 Facebook 的信任依然止步不前。如果社交媒体被证实是如此令人震惊的充满着问题，那么我们就能猜到 Facebook 的“社交银行”版本内部可能存在的种种弊端了。
Facebook's Libra will not be on the line in any form in 2020. This so-called “decentralized wolf in sheep-skinned” has done much to bring the block chain to the tip of global public opinion — good, but sometimes bad. But the company is quickly realizing that even the best plan planned by billionaires will not always be agreed and deployed as planned. When it really gets on the line, Libra will undoubtedly educate and help billions of people.
万亿美元级别公司的出现标志着第三次工业革命的巅峰和结束
The emergence of a trillion-dollar class of companies marked the culmination and end of the third industrial revolution.
当下一个巨头估值超过一万亿美元时，它将永远是巨头了。而这家公司可能连 1 美元的税费都不会向美国支付。这是一个典型例子，表现了我们经济体系下价值获取中的巨大不平等现象，而且这种现象只会越来越严重。旧版 Web2.0 公司通过把个人变成产品来为资产阶级股东们赚取数十亿美元。他们以令人震惊的一致性将个人数据泄漏到邪恶的参与者手中。越来越多的公司突破万亿美元大关，这标志着后期资本主义即将进入腾飞阶段。在无法避免的崩溃之后，我们将面临一次千载难逢的机会，这个机会将刺激更加公平，民主化，可持续的商业模式不断激增。到时候你会有所准备吗？
When the next giant is valued at over $1 trillion, it will always be a giant. This company may not even pay a dollar in taxes or taxes to the United States. This is a typical example of a huge inequality in value acquisition under our economic system, and it will only get worse. The old version of Web 2.0 makes billions of dollars for asset-class shareholders by turning individuals into products.
Web 上的自主身份将成为一项人权
Autonomy on
Web2.0 和 Web3.0 环境中的黑客攻击和违规行为几乎每天都在发生，所以很明显，必须要做出改变了。像去中心化身份基金会这样的项目在建立开源标准方面取得了重大进展，这个标准将把值得信赖的去中心化数字身份组件装入整个区块链生态系统。像 uPort 和 3box 所创建的那样的区块链 ID 和零信任数据存储（zero-trust datastores）将迅速取代我们现在所依赖的老旧的隔离数据库（databases）。建立这种信任网络可能就是 2020 年区块链拼图中最重要的那一块。
The hacking and infractions in the web 2.0 and Web3.0 environments occur almost every day, so it is clear that changes have to be made. Projects like the Decentralized Identity Foundation have made significant progress in establishing open source standards that will feed trusted decentralized digital identity components into the entire block chain ecosystem. The ubort and 3box-created block chains of ID and zero trust data storage (zero-trust datastores) will quickly replace the old isolation database (databases) on which we now rely.
像 IBM 和 Microsoft 这样的 Web2.0 坚定拥簇者已经意识到问题的紧迫性，他们已经分配了大量资源来迭代自家的数字身份。但是，在互联网真正实现民主化之前，自主身份必须为我们自主拥有。数据的所有权和私密性很快将会被视为一项人权，而自主身份是实现这个目标的解决方案。
Web 2.0 activists like IBM and Microsoft have become aware of the urgency of the problem, and they have allocated a great deal of resources to replace their digital identity. But, until the Internet is truly democratized, we must own it. The ownership and privacy of the data will soon be seen as a human right, and self-identification is the solution to that goal.
CME 以太坊期货
CME Ethiopone
比特币期货在一月份有了期权之后，我觉得现在该轮到以太坊了。CME 以太坊期货将于 2020 年宣布并投入使用。CME 已有近 125 年的在金融工具方面的创新历史，孕育了上述两种新的资产类别，并实现了交易过程数字化。继比特币和以太坊以后，CME 将继续这种创新的传统，进而促进数字资产的合法性，并为主流投资者和机构打开大门，以启动下一轮的数字资产市场增长。期货和期权会催生远期需求曲线，这是一个规范的 ETF 市场出现的必要先兆。我们那曾经像孩子一样幼小的资产类别正在长大。
After January, when Bitcoin futures had options, I thought it was time to move to Ether. CME will be announced and put into use in 2020. CME has nearly 125 years of innovative financial instruments, breeding these two new asset classes and digitizing the transaction process. After Bitcoin and Etheria, CME will continue this tradition of innovation, thereby promoting the legitimacy of digital assets and opening the door to mainstream investors and institutions to start the next round of digital asset market growth. Futures and options will generate a forward demand curve, a necessary precursor to the emergence of a regulated ETF market.
十亿美元的 DeFi 生态系统仅有几个月之遥
The billion dollar DeFi ecosystem is only a few months away
在 2020 年第一季度，去中心化金融将继续领跑行业。目前有超过 6 亿美元的资金被锁定在去中心化金融平台。资金的数字将在夏季之前突破十亿。像 a16z 这样的组织在 MKR 和 Compound 的平台上下了很大的赌注，而 Synthetix，Uniswap，dYdX 和 InstaDapp 这样的项目正在为区块链生态系统中一个活跃的领域添枝加叶，而这一领域并不完全取决于扩大规模的时间表。也就是说，DeFi 组织可能必须在合规性和游说方面花费一些大笔法律费用。只举一个例子来说：在所有 50 个州中，公司需要特定的许可证才能向零售客户提供贷款。当 DeFi 不可避免地变得规模过大时，监管机构将对其进行相应的规范性管理。
In the first quarter of 2020, decentralized finance will continue to lead the industry. More than $600 billion of funds are currently locked in decentralized financial platforms. The money figure will break out by summer billion. Organizations like a16z have put a lot of bet on MKR and Compound platforms, while Synthetix, Uniswap, dYdX, and InstaDapp projects are adding value to an active area of the chain ecosystem, which is not entirely dependent on a timetable for scaling up.
区块链界沉睡的巨人醒来了 — 那就是供应链
The giant who sleeps in the chain of the blocks -- that's the supply chain.
假冒商品代表着每年超过 18 亿美元的市场价值，据估计，随着生产和线上销售的发展，假冒商品的市值增长超过 10％。像 Louis Vuitton 和 Levi's 这样家喻户晓的品牌名字正在悄悄地与领先的区块链公司合作完善概念验证试验，以确保货源并在全球范围内保护消费者的权益。Treum 已经展示了区块链保障下的供应链流程的价值，商品涵盖从萨尔萨酱，到金枪鱼，再到护肤品等等。现在，大型包装零售商沃尔玛和国际食品公司雀巢和都乐等都在抢占先机。最近的一份报告指出，仅西欧的公司就可以通过在将在十五年中使用基于区块链的供应链方案来节省 4500 亿美元，而运营成本整体降低了近 1％。
Counterfeiting commodities represent a market value of more than $1.8 billion a year, and it is estimated that the market value of counterfeit commodities has increased by more than 10% as production and online sales have developed. A well-known brand name like Louis Vuitton and Levi's is quietly working with leading block chain companies to refine the concept validation test to ensure the source of the goods and protect consumers' rights and interests globally. Treum has shown the value of supply chain processes guaranteed by the sector chains, ranging from salsa sauce to tuna to skin care.
艺术和音乐将在消费者接口的区块链 App 中占据领先地位
对于艺术，音乐和创意空间来说，区块链的影响将是深远的。日内瓦的美术专家学院（The Fine Arts Expert Institute，FAEI）在 2014 年的一份报告中指出，在其检查过的艺术品中，有 50％以上都是赝品或者标记错了艺术家的名字。区块链现在可以解决这个问题了，我自己有过亲身经历。今年，我购买了题名为弗拉基米尔·库什（Vladimir Kush）的作品，“人类之道”（“The Human Way”）。付款记录，鉴定证书，以及所有权历史记录都使用 Treum 不可逆地记录在了以太坊区块链上。到明年这个时候，这种过程在人们的生活中将变得更加普遍。使艺术成为采用区块链的重要领域的原因并不仅仅在于艺术品的来源。令牌化了的（tokenized）所有权以及不受看门人制约的公平商业模式已经引起了艺术界的关注。请多关注艺术空间吧。 In a 2014 report, the School of Art Experts in Geneva (the Fine Arts Expert Institute, FAEI) noted that more than 50% of the works examined were fakes or the names of the wrong artists. The block chain could now solve the problem, and I myself had personal experience of it. This year, I bought the title Vladimir Kush, The Human Way. The payment certificate, as well as the history of ownership, were recorded irreversibly on the Ethermian chain. This process will become more common in people’s lives by next year. 工作量证明（Proof of Work）在杀死地球的同时自身也在消亡，权益证明（Proof of Stake）长存。 Proof of Work itself dies while killing the Earth and Proof of Stark survives. 也许复古游戏正在流行，但是到 2020 年底，工作量证明将被视为 Atari，而我们都将慢慢习惯权益证明这个新游戏的控件。权益证明的概念在早期只有 Vitalik Buterin 和 Ethereum 采用，而现在整个行业充满着利用基于权益的验证器来支持区块链网络的项目。背后的原因很明确：它不仅释放了速度，安全性，和可扩展性之间的三难问题，而且也大大减少了对地球的负担——你知道的，（地球）就是那个我们无论如何也要通过去中心化运动来改变的地方。工作量证明本质上是浪费的，而如果必须要以破坏环境为代价，那么对经济体系进行改革的意义何在呢？现在是该前进的时候了。 The ancient game may be popular, but by the end of 2020 the workload will prove to be Atari, and we will all slowly get used to the benefits of proving the control of the new game. The concept of proof of rights was adopted only in Vitalik Buterin and Etherum at an early stage, and the whole industry is now full of using rights-based certifications to support the projects of block-chain networks. The reason behind it is clear: it not only releases the dilemma between speed, security, and scalability, but it also reduces the burden on the planet — you know, the place where we have to change by going to the centre. The workload proves to be wasted, and if it has to be done at the cost of destroying the environment, what is the significance of reforming the economic system? 监管者将进行监管 尽管对区块链以及头部科技世界的期望可能会进展迅速，但监管机构和政府的进展却向来是慢半拍的。数字资产现在已经度过了立法和监管机构的不信任阶段，并且代理和立法层面的政策都在做出调整来释放技术的能量以及简化监管。从美国国税局（IRS）10 月发布的最新指示能看出，美国政府承认，虚拟货币将在未来的经济中扮演重要角色。另外，众所周知，CFTC 并未将以太（Ether）视为一种有价证券（security）。其他州应该追赶怀俄明州在这方面的行动（总共 13 条支持区块链的法律）。如果有一种能够推动联邦政府在这一问题上取得进展的动力，那就是为了不被中国抛在后面。2020 年将在州、国家，以及全球范围内出台有关区块链的利好政策。 As can be seen from the recent instructions issued by the US State Revenue Service (IRS) in October, the US government recognizes that virtual money will play an important role in the future economy. Moreover, it is well known that the CFTC does not view too much as a valuable security. Other states should pursue Wyoming’s actions in this area (a total of 13 laws supporting the chain). 没有银行账户的人将仍然没有银行账户——暂时来说是这样的 Those who don't have a bank account will still not have a bank account -- for the time being, that's the case. 去中心化金融是一个引人注目的现象，对区块链和全球经济都有重大影响。但目前来说它经常重复的口号以及目标还暂时无法实现。（即通过为数十亿最需要金融服务的人们提供金融服务的方式来实现“为无银行账户的人提供银行服务”（‘banking the unbanked’）这一目标）……为什么？就目前而言，贷款社区是孤立的，而围绕“信誉”产生的问题意味着最需要的人无法得到贷款。这些问题肯定会随着时间的流逝而被消除，但在 2020 年期间，去中心化金融将继续在一个不断增大但依然封闭的圈子中逐步增长。但这不是一件坏事。不如从这样的角度来看：该行业已经快要突破 10 亿美元大关，但我们实际上仍然处于 beta 模式。 Going to centralize finance is a dramatic phenomenon, with significant implications for the chain of blocks and the global economy. But, for the time being, it often repeats slogans and goals that are not yet achievable. (That is to achieve the goal of “banking the unbanked” by providing financial services to billions of people most in need of financial services.) Why? 用户体验必须优于 Web2.0 苹果公司的 iPhone 是有史以来最畅销的手机，因为它简单而且好用。消费者只需要知道这两点就够了。尽管我们许多技术宅们都乐于在 Web3.0 堆栈的各个层上敲敲打打，但是要想吸引广大的用户，就需要将所有内容从典型的 Web3.0 用户体验中抽象出来。这就是为什么现在对这个行业来说，有高度技巧的的 UI / UX 设计师与低层分布式系统计算机科学家同样重要的原因。 Apple's iPhone is the best-selling cell phone ever, because it is simple and useful. Consumers need only know these two things. Although many of our technology houses are willing to knock on every floor of the Web 3.0 stack, to attract a wide range of users, it is necessary to abstract all the content from the typical Web3.0 user experience. That is why highly skilled UI/UX designers are now equally important to the industry as computer scientists in low-level distributed systems. 但是 UX / UI 不仅意味着整洁的线条和最精简的设计。从标准到库，工具包，扩展方案，入门，托管和钱包集成，要显示出那种程度的功能性简约，屏幕背后需要优化的东西太多了。Rimble 是开源代码库的一个例子，用于为 Web3.0 去中心化 APP 优化用户体验。预计这将是 2020 年的主要发展领域。第一波去中心化消费类 APP 将区块链推到话题中心，但下一波将是由在区块链集成方法上更加细化的项目所领导的。 But UX/UI is not just a neat line and a leanest design. From standards to libraries, tool kits, extension programmes, entry, hosting and wallet integration, to show that the level of functionality is simple, and there are too many things that need to be optimized behind screens. Rimble is an example of an open source repository that can be used to centralize the APP for Web3.0. This is expected to be the main development area in 2020. The first wave of centralizes the consumer group APP moving the block chain to the centre of the topic, but the next wave will be led by a project that is more nuanced on the block chain integration approach. “如果你正身处地狱……那就继续前进” ——温斯顿·丘吉尔 2017 年的加密货币泡沫以及破裂就像是兄弟会的过度狂欢，导致了 2018 年和 2019 年的严重宿醉。不过，泡沫分两种，一种（例如 2008 年的房市崩盘）会留债务负担和浪费，而其他一些（比如 dot.com 泡沫）则有助于基础设施的建设，并使关键组织更加清晰化，这些组织后来会发展成为行业的中坚力量。加密行业的泡沫类似于后者，并将引出真正的，由实用而非投机驱动的区块链繁荣。 In 2017, the crypto-currency bubble and its break-up were like a frat overcrowding, causing severe hangovers in 2018 and 2019. However, the bubbles are of two kinds, one (e.g., the 2008 housing crash) leaving a debt burden and waste, while others (e.g. dot.com bubbles) contribute to infrastructure development and to greater clarity for key organizations, which later develop into the backbone of the industry. 在从 2017 年加密市场非理性的繁荣以及 2018 年同样非理性的低迷中走出来后，开发者和技术人员组成的核心区块链社区已经着手工作了，低头专注于基础设施建设。他们的劳动现在已经有了成果。我们正处在下一次从 2020 年开始的工业革命的十字路口。这个朝着全球范围内去中心化以及自动化迈进的进步将把我们带入有史以来最繁荣的社会。 After coming out of the irrational boom of the encryption market in 2017 and the equally irrational slump of 2018, the community of core blocks, made up of developers and technicians, has begun to work, turning their heads down and focusing on infrastructure. Their work has now borne fruit. We are at the crossroads of the next industrial revolution that began in 2020. This progress towards global centralization and automation will bring us to the most prosperous society ever. 向咆哮的 20 年代致敬！ Tribute to the roaring '20s! 原文：20 Blockchain Predictions for 2020 Original language: 20 Blockchain Predictions for 2020 链接：https://money.com/ethereum-bitcoin-blockchain-predictions/ Links: https://money.com/othereum-bitcoin-blockchain-preventions/ 作者：Andrew Keys，DARMA 资本任事股东。 Author: Andrew Keys, DARMA Capital Holdings. 译者：王艳妮 This post is part of our special coverage Yemen Protests 2011. 本文为 CSDN 翻译，转载请注明来源出处。 This document, which is translated by CSDN, is reproduced with reference to the source. 【End】 为了 助力对抗疫情 ，减少线下人员流动和聚集，CSDN与 PyCon 官方授权的 PyCon中国社区合作，将于 2月15 日举行 「Python开发者日」在线系列峰会 。通过精彩的技术干货内容、有趣多元化的在线互动活动等，让您足不出户便可与大咖学习交流，共同渡过抗疫攻坚期。 To help combat the epidemic and to reduce the flow and concentration of people under the line, the CSDN, in cooperation with the officially authorized Pycon Chinese community, will hold an online summit series of 两种报名方式： Two forms of registration: 1.点击“立即报名”--结算时使用优惠码“pythonday”，价格变为“ 0 "元--提交订单，免费参与 By clicking on "Registration Now" - Pythonday for settlement, the price becomes "0" - order submission, free participation 2.点击“立即报名”--付款“19元”报名--会议官网公示姓名-- 为疫区捐款表心意 Click on “Registration Now” - “Thirteen Dollars” for payment - The name of the conference officer's network is published - 推荐阅读 你点的每一个在看，我认真当成了喜欢 You're looking at every single one of them. I'm serious about it.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论