闪崩!又一轮爆仓

资讯 2024-07-16 阅读:38 评论:0
来源:雪球App,作者: 格隆汇,(https://xueqiu.com/1333325987/282357258)虚拟货币突然闪崩,比特币价格一度跌破65000美元/枚,日内最大跌幅超6%,以太坊价格日本一度暴跌9.77%。The vir...
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来源:雪球App,作者: 格隆汇,(https://xueqiu.com/1333325987/282357258)

虚拟货币突然闪崩,比特币价格一度跌破65000美元/枚,日内最大跌幅超6%,以太坊价格日本一度暴跌9.77%。

The virtual currency suddenly collapsed, with the price of bitcoin falling by $65,000 at one time, with the largest fall of over 6 per cent in the day, and Japan falling by 9.77 per cent at the same price as Taiwan.

据CoinGlass数据显示,最近24个小时内,虚拟货币市场共有16.6万投资者爆仓,爆仓总金额达5.32亿美元。

According to CoinGlass data, in the last 24 hours of

消息面上,有媒体称,美国政府已经提议对加密货币挖矿者征税,以减少该行业对环境的巨大影响。此外,高于预期的通胀数据和一些交易员的获利了结也是引发下跌的原因之一。

According to the media, ’s government has proposed a tax on encrypted money diggers to reduce the significant environmental impact of the industry. In addition, higher than expected inflation data and the closure of some traders are among the causes of the decline.

FxPro高级市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich表示:“新的历史高点是抛售的导火索,一些投资者正在获利了结,这引发了一个问题,即在目前的水平上,是否会有足够多的买家,还是大多数人更愿意等待更深的回调。”

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst for FxPro, said: “The new high point in history of is the trigger for sale, and some investors are profiting, raises the question of whether there will be enough buyers at the current level, or whether most would prefer to wait for deeper returns.”

数据显示,追踪加密货币的期货遭受了超过8亿美元的损失,为今年的第二大损失。6.6亿美元的多头头寸被平仓,这可能是导致加密货币大幅下滑的原因之一。

Data show that futures tracking encrypted currencies have suffered losses of more than $800 million, the second largest loss this year. Over $660 million in positions has been levelled, which could be one of the reasons for the significant decline in encrypted currencies.

1

分化!AI宠儿暴涨12倍,AI受害者股价大跌

split! AI's pets soared 12 times and the shares of AI's victims fell .

美股在周五迎来今年首个“三巫日”,即股指期货、股指期权和个股期权这三种合约在同一天到期结算。

On Friday, the United States dollar will host the first three sorcerers' day of the year, with three types of contracts, namely futures, stakeholds and equity options, which expire on the same day.

据估算,当日集中到期的股指期货和期权及个股期权合约规模总计超过5万亿美元。

It is estimated that the combined size of the stock count and options and equity contracts that expired on that date exceeds $5 trillion.

高盛预计,3月的个股期权交易量将自2021年底以来首次超过现金股票交易量,这令市场更有可能大幅波动。

Goldman Sachs anticipates that the March stock turnover will exceed the volume of cash stock transactions for the first time since the end of 2021, making the market more volatile.

美股经历过山车式的大起大落。“AI宠儿”超微电脑周五股价放量大跌,成交额较前一日暴增157.27%,高达183.48亿美元,在当日美股中排第4名。

The U.S. shares have experienced a steep rise and fall in the mountain pattern. “AI pets” 超微电脑依旧是这波AI狂潮的最大受益者之一。

Despite a drop of over 10 per cent in the last two trading days,

人工智能浪潮爆发,超微电脑股价一路高歌猛进,年初至今估计涨幅276%,2023年以来涨幅更是达到惊人的1201%,最火AI股英伟达同期涨幅501%。

A wave of artificial intelligence erupted at

(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列,不构成任何投资建议)

(This document lists objective data information and does not constitute any investment recommendation)

超微电脑被纳入标准普尔500指数,美东时间3月2日,标普道琼斯指数公司宣布,将超微电脑纳入标普500指数,这一消息推动超微电脑股价直接暴涨18.65%。

Hedgeye分析师Felix Wang表示,超微电脑最大的上涨动力是该公司与英伟达的密切合作,特别是在构建基于AI GPU的服务器方面。

Hedgeye analyst Felix Wang indicated that

英伟达年度GTC活动(计划于3月18日举行)即将到来之际,美国银行分析师Vivek Arya提高了英伟达和超微电脑的目标价。

On the eve of

Vivek Arya将英伟达目标价从925美元提高到1100美元,将超微电脑目标价从1040美元提高到1280美元。

Vivek Arya increased the target price of from $925 to $1,100, and

另一边,美国软件巨头股价暴跌,成为AI最大受害者之一。

On the other side, the stock price of the American software giant fell sharply, making it one of the biggest victims of AI.

图像编辑软件巨头公司、PhotoShop开发商Adobe暴跌13.67%,市值一夜蒸发353亿美元(约合人民币2540亿元),股价创2023年7月7日以来新低。

The image-editor software giant, the PhatoSop developer Adobe, fell by 13.67 per cent and the market value evaporated overnight at $35.3 billion (approximately RMB 254 billion) at a new low since 7 July 2023.

股价暴跌导火索来自公司公布的第二财季指引让人失望。公司第一财季营收和利润均超预期,但第二财季业绩指引逊于预期,一些华尔街分析师对该公司短期内利用AI获得收入的能力表示担忧。

It is disappointing that stock prices plunged from the company’s published guidelines for the second season. The company’s revenue and profits were both higher than expected, but performance in the second season was less than expected, and some Wall Street analysts expressed concern about the company’s ability to use AI for revenue in the short term.

Adobe年初至今股价下跌17.46%,其中2月16日暴跌7.41%,那一天,OpenAI的文生视频模型Sora炸裂出道。

At the beginning of the year, Adobe's share price fell by 17.46 per cent, of which 7.41 per cent fell sharply on 16 February. On that day, the OpenAI documentary video model Sora exploded.

Adobe作为视频编辑软件的巨头,受到Sora的威胁,股价暴跌,成为AI受害者。

Adobe, as the giant of video editing software, was threatened by Sora, whose share price fell sharply and was the victim of AI.

这波浪潮给市场最大的启示是,不能看到英伟达就认为整个美股科技股都很牛,美股科技股也正在发生剧烈分化。

The biggest indication of this wave for the market is that

2

美股单周资金流入创历史新高

A week-long flow of funds to the United States has reached an all-time high

尽管一些市场人士和指标不断发出风险警示,但资金依旧强势流入美股。

Despite constant risk warnings from some marketers and indicators, the flow of funds to the United States stock continued to be strong.

密歇根大学周五公布的初步报告显示,美国3月消费者信心指数下滑至76.5,略低于2月份的76.9。

According to a preliminary report released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the consumer confidence index in the United States fell to 76.5 in March, slightly below the 76.9 in February.

目前的美国消费者信心指数,高于2022年6月通胀见顶时达到的历史最低点,但低于新冠大流行前的平均水平。

The current consumer confidence index in the United States is above the historical low reached when inflation peaked in June 2022, but below the pre-popular average.

近日,美国银行一份报告指出:由于投资者对滞胀风险不以为然,流入美国股市的资金创下历史新高。

Recently,

美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett在报告中援引EPFR Global的数据称,截至3月13日当周,美国股票基金获得了560亿美元的资金流入。

此外,伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)数据也显示,美国股票基金过去一周资金净流入量为49.3亿美元,为2月以来规模最大的单周资金流入数据。

In addition, data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) show that the net inflow of the United States equity fund over the past week was $4.93 billion, the largest single-week inflow since February.

巴克莱银行策略师Emmanuel Cau指出,目前股市似乎不受通胀升温和经济活动数据走软的影响。

他表示:“鉴于美联储到目为止支持从6月开始三次降息的当前市场定价,投资者继续对软着陆的说法持乐观态度。如果这成为现实,仍有大量现金可用于投资风险资产。”

He said: “In view of the Fed’s support to date for the current market pricing, which began three interest reductions in June, investors continue to be optimistic about soft landings. If this becomes a reality, there is still a large amount of cash available to invest in venture assets.”

标普全球评级显示,高利率环境令不少公司面临困境。

通胀和高利率的双重压力下,今年以来全球违约企业事件的数量已超过自金融危机以来的同期最高纪录。

Under the double pressure of inflation and high interest rates, the number of global business default events since this year has surpassed the record for the same period since the financial crisis.

标普指出,低迷的消费需求、上升的工资和高利率对负债重的公司特别不利,是导致公司偿债困难的主要原因之一。

According to PHP, depressed consumer demand, rising wages and high interest rates are particularly unfavourable for heavily indebted companies and are one of the main causes of their debt-servicing difficulties.

3

日本散户大举买入日股

Japanese diaspora buys Japanese shares

日经225指数刷新历史新高,但日本散户今年大部分时间里持观望态度,这两年日本股市走强的重要推手主要是外资。

近期风向突变,继1月份日本散户撤退后,最近又重新杀回来了。

The recent wind surge, followed by the retreat of the Japanese diaspora in January, has recently returned.

据日本证券集团的数据,上周日本散户对日股净买入额超越外资,创下几个月以来的最高单周水平。

According to data from the Japanese Securities Group, Japan's net buy-in to Japanese shares exceeded foreign investment last week, reaching the highest single week level in the next few months.

日本散户大举买入日股。上周日本散户净买入3270亿日元(约合22亿美元)股票,超过外资净买入额,创下自去年12月以来的最高单周水平。

The Japanese diaspora bought up Japanese shares. Last week, the Japanese diaspora bought $32.7 billion (approximately $2.2 billion) in net shares, exceeding net foreign investment purchases, to the highest level of a single week since December last year.

虽然散户资金流入积极,但近期日本股市却罕见出现5连跌下挫。

While bulk capital inflows have been positive, the Japanese stock market has rarely experienced a five-collapsing setback in the recent past.

市场似乎提前反应日元升值带来的负面效应,有分析指出,若今年日元升值超过5%,日股可能将“崩盘”?

The market appears to have responded in advance to the negative effects of the yen appreciation, with analysis suggesting that if the yen appreciated by more than 5 per cent this year, the Japanese share might “shatter”?

随着日本春季劳资谈判的进行,汇总结果显示,今年加薪率达到33年新高,这意味着日本距离取消负利率又近一步。观察人士预计,日本央行将于4月前退出负利率,市场预期日元将因此升值。

With Japan’s spring labor negotiations taking place, the aggregate results show that this year’s salary increase has reached a new high of 33 years, which means that Japan is closer to eliminating negative interest rates. The observers expect the central bank of Japan to withdraw negative interest rates by April, and the market expects the yen to appreciate as a result.

一些分析人士则表示,日股在短期内可以承受日元小幅升值,但若日元持续大幅升值,将对日股造成压力。

According to some analysts, the Japanese share could withstand a small appreciation of the yen in the short term, but if the yen continued to appreciate significantly, it would put pressure on the Japanese share.

历史上,日元走强与日经指数呈现较为明显的负相关性,当日元对美元及其它主要贸易伙伴货币持续升值,日经225指数涨幅明显放慢。

Historically, the yen has shown a more negative correlation with the , when the yen continued to appreciate against the United States dollar and currencies of other major trading partners,

日股此轮牛市还能持续多久?

How long can the stock market last for ?

华尔街也开始产生分歧。近日,Asymmetry Advisors日本股市策略师Amir Anvarzadeh向CNBC表示,如果日元兑美元升值至140,这种“(企业)盈利的巨大推动力”将会消失。

Wall Street also started to divide. In recent days, Amir Anwarzadeh, Japanese stock market strategist at Asymmetry Advisors, told CNBC that if the yen appreciated to 140 against the United States dollar, this “big push for profit” would disappear.

由于日本出口型经济体,许多大型企业(如丰田、索尼等)高度依赖出口,日元升值会降低产品价格竞争力,使得企业出口订单减少、收入和利润下滑,从而打压日股的上涨动力。

As many large enterprises (e.g. Toyota, Sony, etc.) are highly export-dependent in Japan's export-oriented economies, the appreciation of the yen will reduce the competitiveness of product prices, resulting in lower export orders, lower earnings and lower profits for enterprises, thus straining the upward momentum of the Japanese stock.

Amir Anvarzadeh警告称,一旦日元升值过大,推动日经指数走高的跨国公司和大型出口商的股票可能会下跌。

Amir Anwarzadeh warned that, if the yen appreciated too much, the stocks of multinational corporations and large exporters driving

摩根士丹利认为,未来日股的涨势和可能将由内需股推动,因而,在日元走强后,内需股或许成为了日股走势的关键。

According to Morgan Stanley, the upward trend and potential for the future will be driven by the inward demand unit, which, after the Japanese yen, may be the key to the Japanese stock movement.

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