比特币急跌暴露虚拟币炒作庞氏骗局本质
The precipitous fall of Bitcoin exposed the nature of the ponzi scheme.
在6000美元附近横盘近两月的比特币11月14日起跌幅突然扩大,带动了整个虚拟币市场的暴跌行情;11月25日,比特币再次大跳水,一天之内接连跌破4200美元、4100美元、3900美元……3500美元关口,相比去年12月份高点时的近2万美元,不到一年时间,比特币跌幅超过80%。
The sudden increase in the fall of Bitcoin, close to two months around $6,000, which began on 14 November, triggered the collapse of the virtual currency market as a whole; on 25 November, Bitcoin again jumped again, breaking back into $4,200, $4,100 and $3,900 in one day... The $3,500 mark, close to $20,000 at its peak last December, fell by more than 80 per cent in less than a year.
关于以比特币为首的虚拟货币的暴跌,不少分析师普遍认为主要还是前期的投机炒作,将比特币等虚拟币推向泡沫顶端的结果。目前比特币处于熊市当中,没有根本性的利好仍无法支撑现有价格。比特币本身是无法产生收益的,如果没有接棒者,存量市场的抛售将是一个持续性的行为,也就是说比特币的价格还会继续下行,且远未到底。
With regard to the collapse of the virtual currency headed by bitcoin, many analysts are generally of the opinion that it is the result of pre-existing speculation that pushes virtual currency, such as bitcoin, to the top of the bubble. Now that bitcoin is in the bear market, there are no fundamental benefits that cannot support the current price. Bitcoin itself cannot generate gains, and if there is no sticker, selling the stock market will be a continuing act, which means that bitcoin prices will continue to fall and far from it.
实际上,比特币等虚拟货币连泡沫都算不上,因为这种虚拟货币不过是一串毫无实际意义的数字代码,不会产生任何实质价值,投资者买进只是希望下一个接盘侠会付出更高的成本,所谓的收益主要来自于买卖价差,而这不过是财富转移的庞氏骗局而已,因为这场投机游戏需要不断有人接棒才能继续玩下去,一旦投资者信心崩塌止步入场,游戏就将难以为继,一切虚拟货币都会回归其原本价值:零。
Indeed, virtual currencies such as bitcoins are not even bubbles, because they are nothing more than a meaningless set of digital codes that do not produce any real value. Investors buy in only to expect that the next matchmaker will pay a higher price. The so-called gains come mainly from the price differential, which is a Ponzi scheme for wealth transfers, because the game of speculation requires constant batons to continue, and once investor confidence collapses, the game will be difficult to sustain, and all virtual money will return to its original value: zero.
比特币等虚拟货币之所以吸引人,主要还是由于底层的区块链技术。区块链,这一脱胎于比特币的神秘数据处理技术被描述得近乎完美,去中心化、开放性、不可篡改、自治性,最有文章可作的就是应用于金融领域,甚至还被币圈玩家创造出一种独特的融资方式:模仿IPO(新股首发),创造了ICO(首次代币发行)。
Virtual currencies, such as bitcoin, are attractive mainly because of bottom-level block chain technology. The block chain, a mysterious data-processing technology that is off-line with bitcoin, is described as almost perfect, decentralized, open, non-manufactured, autonomous, and the most relevant is applied in the financial sphere, and even created by currency-circumstancers as a unique form of financing: imitation of IPOs (new start-up), creation of ICOs (first issue of a currency).
这不过就是一块监管空白的“地下市场”。在这里,只需要几百万元就可以轻易坐庄,操控价格疯狂涨跌,伪创业者编个故事、拼凑个白皮书,便可搭建一个ICO项目,发行代币集资,披上“区块链”的外衣布下庞氏骗局。
This is nothing more than an “underground market” with a regulatory void. Here, it takes millions of dollars to sit easily, to manipulate prices, to make a story, to collide a white paper, to build an ICO project, to issue a token fund, and to put on a ponzi scheme in a “block chain”.
但区块链技术并非万能,即使被更多地提及应用到金融领域,单就交易方面,这种技术就已经出现严重的漏洞。事实上,比特币的交易并不便捷,官方数据显示,比特币每秒钟最多支持6笔交易,而PayPal平均每秒钟能支持193笔交易,Visa平均每秒钟能支持1667笔交易。更通俗地讲,区块链机制下,每一笔比特币交易都被放进一个交易池中,当这些交易凑满1兆容量时,会被封包成块,形成一个节点并由全网用户去认证并记录,所以每笔交易需要大量的时间去认证、记录。
In fact, Bitcoin transactions are not easy, and official data show that bitcoins support up to six transactions per second, while PayPal supports 193 transactions per second, and Visa supports 1,667 transactions per second. More commonly, each bitcoin transaction is placed in a pool under the block chain mechanism, and when these transactions are filled with a mega capacity, they are packaged into blocks, form a node and be certified and recorded by a full web user, so that each transaction takes a lot of time to authenticate and record.
抛开繁冗复杂的技术噱头,区块链的公共账本和传统中心账本相比,有一条鸿沟在逻辑上始终无法逾越——那就是公共账本的交易处理节点永远是中心账本的乘数倍。
Beyond the cumbersome and complex technical headlines, there is a gap between the public and traditional central books of the block chain, which cannot be crossed logically — that is, the transaction processing node of the public books will always be a multiplier of the central books.
这也是区块链至今都没有大规模应用的场景,也无法在金融领域称得上技术创新的原因所在。此前央行就表态过,目前真正落地并产生社会效益的区块链项目很少,因此不要夸大或迷信区块链的功能,这些年的行业实践已经证明,一些区块链应用方向不可行。
This is why the block chain has so far not been used on a large scale, nor has it been able to claim technological innovation in the financial field. As the central bank has stated before, there are few projects in the block chain that are now truly settled and yield social benefits, so do not exaggerate or superstitious the function of the block chain, and industry practice over the years has shown that the direction of some of the block chains is not feasible.
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