撰文：BTC_Chopsticks
Author: BTC_Chopsticks
當加密貨幣市場下跌時，人們常常花費大量時間和精力進行分析，試圖準確預測市場的底部，表現得格外謹慎。然而，當市場上漲時，大家卻變得自信滿滿，只是不斷地點擊買入按鈕，幾乎沒有進行任何深入分析。我們似乎變得像沒有明天一樣，瘋狂地追逐綠色的買入機會。
When the market for encrypted currency falls, people often spend a lot of time and effort analysing it, trying to predict the bottom of the market and acting with extreme caution. However, when the market rises, people become confident, and they simply click on the buttons, with little in-depth analysis. We seem to have gone as far as to chase green buy-ins without tomorrow.
究其原因，恐懼和貪婪是我們在加密貨幣市場中大部分行為的驅動力。當恐懼佔上風時，市場消息充斥著對進一步崩盤的警告和要求投降的呼聲，似乎一切都將走向末日。 「這是結束，再見了大家，很高興認識你們。」然而，當貪婪掌控局面時，狂喜和樂觀情緒瀰漫市場，每個人都變成了自信的專家，預測著新的高點。 「如果這幣再漲10000%，我就能退休了。衝！」
Fear and greed are the driving force of most of our actions in the encrypted currency market. When fear takes over, the news of the market is filled with warnings of further collapses and calls for surrender, as if everything was going to end. “This is the end, everyone is happy to know you.” But, when greed takes control of the situation, the ecstasy and the fun and the fun market becomes a confident expert, anticipating new heights. “If the currency rises by 10,000%, I can retire!”
人類心理學中的損失厭惡是導致這種現象的主要原因之一。我們對損失的痛苦感受遠遠超過了對利益的愉悅感受。
Losses in human psychology are one of the main causes of this phenomenon. We feel much more of the pain of the loss than of the pleasure of the benefit.
加之人類是社會性動物，害怕錯過（FOMO）的感覺非常強烈。當周遭的人都在快速致富時，我們難以置身事外，羊群心態佔上風，跟風入場，往往就在市場達到頂峰的時候。
And humans are social animals, and fear of missing (FOMOs) is very strong. When people around us get rich quickly, it is difficult for us to stay out of the world, with sheep taking the upper hand and wind entering, often at the peak of the market.
市場觸底時的感覺非常獨特，尤其是在底部當天，這種感覺尤其明顯。然而，猜測市場的頂部則難得多，通常在真正到頂之前很早就有人開始喊頂了。而在真正到頂時，市場充斥著極度看漲的聲音，幾乎看不到任何看跌的聲音。
The feeling at the bottom of the market is unique, especially when it comes to the bottom. However, it is much more difficult to guess the top of the market, which usually starts shouting long before it really reaches the top.
事實上，預測市場的底部和頂部是一件愚蠢的事情。當市場情緒達到極端時，最佳的機會通常已經溜走了。諷刺的是，最好的機會往往在於逆流而行：在別人被恐懼淹沒時買入，在貪婪和狂喜氾濫時賣出。正如一位傑出的投資者所言，「在別人貪婪時要恐懼，在別人恐懼時要貪婪。」
In fact, predicting the bottom and the top of the market is a foolish thing. When the market reaches the extreme, the best chance is usually lost. Ironically, the best opportunity is often in reverse: buying when people are inundated by fear, selling it during greed and ecstasy. As an excellent investor said, "Be afraid when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are afraid."
交易員的工作不在於預測市場的底部和頂部，而是從累積和分配的角度思考問題。制定一個基於自己分析的計劃，不要試圖找出完美的入場或出場時機，而是在下跌時逐漸積累，在反彈時逐步獲利。有一個策略並堅持執行，無論市場如何波動。
The trader’s job is not to predict the bottom and top of the market, but to think about it from the point of view of accumulation and distribution. A plan based on his own analysis does not attempt to find the perfect entry or exit, but rather to build up in a fall and gain in a rebound. There is a strategy that persists, regardless of how the market moves.
專業精神意味著有一個計劃並嚴格執行，即使在情緒高漲時也是如此。紀律是指在FOMO（錯失恐懼症）襲來或市場被恐懼籠罩時，抵制偏離計畫的衝動。
Professionalism means that there is a plan and that it is strictly enforced, even when the mood rises. Discipline is about resisting the urge to get away from the program when the FOMO strikes or when the market is surrounded by fear.
重複是指持續應用你的策略，即使感覺無聊也要堅持。最終，克服重複的失敗和失望的能力是成功的關鍵。
Repeating means continuing to use your strategy, even if it feels boring. Ultimately, the ability to overcome repeated failures and disappointments is the key to success.
華倫?巴菲特的名言「在別人恐懼時貪婪」再次響起。然而，在實際操作中，當市場崩潰，你的投資組合下跌50% 時，買入是非常困難的。同樣，當市場狂喜時，我們知道應該謹慎，但當每個人周圍似乎都在輕鬆致富時，快速獲利的誘惑是非常強烈的。
Warren Buffett’s famous words, “Grieve when others fear”; yet, in practice, it is very difficult to buy when the market collapses and your investment pool drops by 50%. Likewise, when the market ecstasy rages, we know that caution should be exercised, but when everyone seems to be lightly rich, the temptation to profit quickly is strong.
有一個計劃並嚴格執行是至關重要的。如果你的計劃是在下跌時積累，那麼無論你感覺如何，你都在價格下跌和情緒低迷時買入。如果你的計畫是在達到目標時獲利，那麼即使感覺漲勢可能永遠持續下去，你也會在上漲途中分階段賣出。
If your plan is to accumulate when you fall, then whatever you feel, you buy it at a time of falling prices and depression. If your plan is to profit when you reach the goal, you will sell in stages on the way up, even if you feel that the upturn is likely to last forever.
抓住確切的底部和頂部可能會讓自我滿足，但這不是建立長期財富的可靠方法。更好的方法是專注於一遍又一遍地執行你的計劃，即使這意味著錯過一些最佳日子。緩慢而穩定的方法往往在投資中勝出。
Seizing the exact bottom and top may satisfy itself, but it is not a reliable way to build long-term wealth. The better way is to focus on your plans over and over again, even if it means missing some of the best days. Slow and stable approaches often win in investment.
記住，在極端情況下，羊群通常是錯誤的。記住你的計劃，以及你為制定計劃所付出的努力。紀律是長期成功的關鍵，每一次挫折都是學習和改進的機會。保持理性，祝你投資順利！
Remember, in extreme circumstances, the flock is often wrong. Remember your plan, and your efforts to develop it. Discipline is the key to long-term success, and every setback is a chance to learn and improve. Be rational. Have a good investment!
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论