- 近期比特幣巨鯨出現拋售跡象，美國比特幣ETF對比特幣增持有所放緩。
- 聯準會6月降息的預期已大幅下降，比特幣盤整時間預計將持續更久。
- 近期比特幣生態資金流入大幅上升，比特幣減半前後大機率將出現突破，隨後或將迎來進一步調整。
從鏈上數據來看，近期比特幣巨鯨出現拋售跡象，同時，美國比特幣ETF對比特幣增持有所放緩。
From the data on the chain, recent signs of sale of the Bitcoins whales were observed, while the United States currency ETF slowed the increase in its holdings of the Bitcoins.
近期美國出售比特幣引發市場擔憂，儘管量不大，但引發市場恐慌。根據《比推》4月7日報道， Scopescan 數據顯示，在轉移絲綢之路相關的BTC 後，美國政府在過去3 天已將600多個相關的BTC （價值4000萬美元以上）轉移到新地址。
The recent sale of bitcoins in the United States has caused concern in the market, albeit modestly, but has caused panic in the market. According to the April 7 report, Scopescan figures show that the US government has moved more than 600 related BTCs (valued over $40 million) to a new address in the last three days after the transfer of the BTC linked to the Silk Road.
另據Santiment數據顯示，自3 月24 日以來，持有100至1,000 BTC（通常被稱為「鯨魚」）的錢包數量保持相對穩定，在13,872 至13,841 之間小幅波動。這種穩定性顯示這些重要持有者目前並未累積更多比特幣。
According to Santiment, the number of purses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTCs (often called " whales " ) has remained relatively stable since March 24, with a small wave movement between 13,872 and 13,841. This stability shows that these important holders are currently not accumulating more bits of currency.
整體來看，聯準會6月降息的預期已經大幅下降，市場目前更傾向7月或之後一些，激進的甚至認為到2025年才降息。對比特幣而言，市場原本將聯準會降息作為比特幣進一步上漲的核心推動因素，因為流動性增加，比特幣價格更容易被推高。但伴隨聯準會降息預期延後，考慮到巨鯨增持跡象減弱，比特幣盤整時間預計將持續更久。除此之外，地緣局勢緊張成為影響比特幣的重要因素，例如俄烏衝突和巴以衝突等都成為誘發比特幣價格波動的因素。
For bitcoins, the market would have used the franchise as a core push factor for a further increase in bitcoins, as the price of bitcoins would have been more likely to be higher. But, with the expected reduction in franchises, considering the weakening of whales over time, it would have been much longer than the season would have been expected. In addition, geographical tension has become an important factor affecting bitcoins, such as the Russian-Russian conflict and the Bar conflict.
從週期角度來看，本輪週期事實上有很多不同，例如Meme炒作本輪率先開始；不過，比特幣在走勢上也仍然有可藉鑑之處。
There are many differences in the reality of the current cycle, from a weekly perspective, such as the beginning of the Meme season; however, the Bitcoins still have room for movement.
從鏈上數據來看，@0xCryptoChan基於幣天銷毀(Coin Days Destroyed)、總流通量(Liquid Supply)和已實現價格(Realized Price)構建的BTC頂底兩摸大周期幣價顯示：BTC 在階段③已持續約4個月；其中2012-2013年，#BTC 在階段③持續約7個月；2016-2017年，#BTC 在階段③持續約11個月；2020年，#BTC 在階段③持續約4.5個月。
According to the data on the chain, the top BTC, constructed by @0xCryptoChan, based on Coin Days Destroyed, Liquid Supply and Realized Price, shows that BTC has been running for about four months in Phase 3; #BTC continued for about seven months in Period 3 in 2012-2013; #BTC continued for about 11 months in Phase 3 in 2016-2017; and #BTC continued for about 4.5 months in Phase 3 in 2020.
除此之外，目前BTC 鏈上老手籌碼派發至40.6%。在歷史上的牛頂，老手最低把籌碼派發到10.4%及以下。圖中黑線為BTC價格；柱形為鏈上>1年未動過的BTC數量佔總量百分比，其中不同年齡層的BTC需經該年齡層BTC總買入成本市值(Realized Cap)的加權以消除遠古巨鯨籌碼放到現在佔比過大的問題。
In addition to this, the BTC chain currently has 40.6% of the old leverage in its historical tops, with a minimum of 10.4% and below. The black line is the BTC price; the column is the & gt; the number of BTCs that have not moved in a year accounts for a percentage of the total, with BTCs of different ages being required to buy the total market value of the cost (realized Cap) by the same age group to eliminate the problem of an ancient whale chip taking over the larger issue now.
從技術圖上看，比特幣目前上方承壓，下方短線站上M5、MA13等短期均線。考慮到比特幣ETF資金流入減弱，聯準會降息時間可能推遲，比特幣短線預計維持震盪洗盤。
According to the technology map, the bitcoins are currently under pressure above, with short-term averages such as M5 and MA13 on the lower line. Considering the weakening of the Bitcoins ETF inflows, the linkage is likely to be delayed, and the Bitcoins short line is expected to maintain a tremor wash.
不過伴隨比特幣減半來臨，比特幣生態資金持續流入，特別是最近一周，資金流入量也相對較高。根據Defillama數據顯示，比特幣生態最近一周流入66.58%。比特幣生態多個知名項目也選擇減半後上線，比特幣生態多個項目選擇減半後上線。例如，Runes 協議宣布將於比特幣減半後正式啟用基於UTXO 模型的RUNE 符文協議，BRC 20協議也選擇在Runes 即將啟用的時間節點升級；參與Merlin's Seal 用戶的質押資產預計將在4 月解鎖；Stacks 聯創Muneeb Ali 曾表示，Stacks Nakamoto 升級將於4 月15 日-29 日之間開始推出；B2主網將在4 月啟動；BounceBit 計劃於4月23 日推出主網，並在五月進行空投。
For example, the Runes Agreement announced that RUNE, based on the UTXO model, would be officially launched after the UTXO model, and BRC 20 opted to be launched between 15 and 29 April; Merlin #39; B2B2B2B4B; and B2B4B4B2B2B2B3B3B4B.
整體上，比特幣短線有一定走強跡象，預計在比特幣減半前後有望實現突破；從中期來看，比特幣巨鯨出現拋售，比特幣ETF流入放緩，美聯儲降息時間預期推遲，比特幣在減半前後衝高後大機率會進行盤整。
On the whole, there are certain signs of strongness in the short line of the Bitcoins, which are expected to make a breakthrough after half the bitcoins have been cut; in the medium term, the Bitcoins whales have been sold, the Bitcoins ETF inflows have been slowed down, the Feds are expected to be delayed, and the Bitcoins are expected to run high after the reduction.
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