一、比特币是骗局吗？
Is Bitcoin a fraud?
所以，今天晚上我就在想，从1990年开始的股市和2008年开始的比特币，到底哪个才是骗局？
So tonight I'm thinking, which is the fraud, the stock market that started in 1990 and the Bitcoin that started in 2008?
首先作为一个传统市场的投资者来说，比特币肯定是智商税无疑。
First, as an investor in a traditional market, Bitcoin is certainly an IQ tax.
我也是坚定的比特币智商税观点支持者。
I am also a staunch supporter of the Bitcoin IQ concept.
理由也很好说，我能顺嘴就来：
That's a good reason. I'll be right there.
1. 比特币不是货币
bitcoinisnotcurrency
在2010年5月22日，有位码农用2000枚比特币买了一块披萨，但是在2021年，2000枚比特币，差不多8亿人民币，算50元一块披萨，能买16000000块披萨，就算你一天三顿吃披萨，够你吃一万四千多年……
On May 22, 2010, a number farmer bought a pizza with 2,000 bitcoins, but in 2021, 2,000 bitcoins, about 800 million yuan, $50 pizzards, and 16,000,000 pizzas, even if you eat three pizzas a day, enough for over 14,000 years...
你看这价值尺度的波动，不管是商家还是消费者，都不会有人把比特币当成是货币对待，像人民币、美元等真正意义上的货币，一年的汇率波动也就百分之几，了不得了。
When you look at the volatility of this value scale, whether it is a businessman or a consumer, no one treats bitcoin as a currency, a currency in the true sense of the renminbi, the dollar, etc., and exchange rate fluctuations of a few per cent a year.
稳定，是对货币的最低要求，毕竟货币是要作为一般等价物，给交易双方提供一个可信的价值参考媒介。
Stability is the minimum requirement for currencies, which, after all, are meant to provide a credible value reference medium for both parties to the transaction as a general equivalent.
而比特币呢，别说一年了，今天一天波动都超过5%，拿着万亿当货币？玩的可就是心跳了。
And what about bitcoin, not a year, and today it's more than 5% a day, with a trillion dollars in currency? That's a heartbeat.
另外，比特币交易还有手续费，成本高，而且效率极其低下，所以把比特币当什么都可以，千万别把他当成是货币。
In addition, the Bitcoin transaction has a fee, a high cost, and is extremely inefficient, so treat the bitcoin as anything, and never treat him as a currency.
2. 比特币不是黄金
& nbsp;bitcoinisnotgold
有人把比特币比作是数字黄金，其实这也不挨着。
Some people compare Bitcoin to digital gold, and it's not going anywhere.
黄金作为存储价值的媒介，最大的特点就是稳定，不仅是物理性质稳定，而且价值也非常稳定，不论你放置多少年，黄金这东西都还在，而且购买力也基本差不多一致。
The greatest feature of gold as a medium of storage value is stability, not only physical, but also very stable values, which, no matter how many years you put in it, remain, and the purchasing power is almost identical.
但比特币就不行了，上个周比特币暴跌了20%，而本周又暴涨20%，就这么暴涨暴跌，价值和做过山车一样，肯定不能给你提供保险柜里藏的金条带来的那种安全感。
But Bitcoin didn't work. Last week Bitcoin fell by 20 per cent, and this week went up by another 20 per cent.
比特币是2008年出现的，可能十几年后比特币一文不值，我都不会吃惊。
Bitcoin appeared in 2008 and may not be worth anything more than a decade later, and I wouldn't be surprised.
当然，这还不是比特币注定成为不了黄金的根本原因。
Of course, this is not the underlying reason why bitcoin is destined not to be gold.
黄金之所以有保值作用的关键，是因为黄金在种元素在大自然中是一种相对稀缺的东西，虽然比特币在设计之初就试图模仿这一点，总数设置不超过2100万个这一上限，但是这个稀缺是人为制造的，比特币可能很稀缺，但是数字货币并不稀缺。
The key to the preservation of gold is that gold is relatively scarce in 而且在科技领域，也并不是第一个出现的高科技产品就是最好的，比如第一个搜索引擎Yahoo、第一个浏览器Netscape、第一个聊天软件ICQ…… And in the field of technology, not the first high-tech products to emerge are the best, such as the first search engine Yahoo, the first browser Netscape, the first chat software ICQ... 今何在？ Where are we now? 如果想要押注区块链，没问题，但是如果赌比特币就是永远的龙头，这事有点玄学的味道。 If you want to bet on the block chain, that's fine, but if you want to bet on bitcoin is always the leader, it's a little bit of a theoretical. 3. 比特币不安全 3. & nbsp; Bitcoin is unsafe 比特币本身很安全，你只要拿着你的128位的密钥，谁也抢不走你的币，这句话本身没问题，但问题是你的128位密钥并不在你手里，一般都在交易所受理。 Bitcoin itself is safe. You just have your 128-bit key and you can't take it from anyone. But the problem is that your 128-bit key is not in your hands, and it's usually on the exchange. 去年韩国一个比特币交易所因为被盗而倒闭，更有趣的是，交易所被盗这事并不罕见，反而是接二连三发生，所有专业交易所都遇到过这种问题。 Last year, a bitcoin exchange in Korea closed down because it was stolen. More interestingly, the theft of the exchange was not uncommon, but occurred in a series of events, and all professional exchanges experienced such problems. 那么你存在自己电脑上安全吗？ So you're safe on your own computer? 你离币值归零只隔了一个硬盘故障的距离，我大学期间玩游戏接触过比特币，那时候比特币才20多元一个，毕业的时候还剩下4个左右吧，但是那会不是很值钱，也没在意，后来再知道比特币值钱的时候，我电脑都换了4个了…… You're only at a distance from the zero value of the coin, and I've been in touch with Bitcoin since college, when it was 20 or so, and there's four or so left to graduate, but that's not very valuable, and I don't care, and then I changed four of them when I realized that bitcoins were worth... 有一期《生活大爆炸》就讲了一个类似的故事。Leonard、Howard、Raj多年前用一台笔记本电脑挖出过一个比特币，整整一集他们就在找这个比特币去哪儿了，找来找去最后还是没找到。 A similar story comes up in one issue of the Big Bang of Life. Leonard, Howard, Raj dug up a bitcoin on a laptop many years ago, and a whole episode of them looking for this bitcoin, and they found it, and they found it, and they didn't find it. 4. 比特币到底是什么 4. & nbsp; what is Bitcoin? 我们前面说了比特币不是货币、不是黄金、不安全，那么比特币到底是什么？ We said earlier that bitcoin wasn't currency, not gold, not security, so what was bitcoin? 我的答案是：具有收藏价值的限量邮票。 My answer is: limited stamps of collection value. 这和当年的荷兰郁金香泡沫还不一样，郁金香这玩意再值钱，它也是可再生的，而且可以培育，不具备稀缺性，当某一天郁金香价值提升，那么必然会有大批花农去培育，来吧，你说你的诉求是啥吧，就算你想要章丘大葱那么高的郁金香，也有人能给你培育出几大挂卡车，同样的还有文玩核桃，前几年疯狂的时候，一对狮子头、官帽能卖到几十万，现在呢？别说官帽了，你自己画个形状，明年核桃农就能给你摆在面前，无非就是开模弄个造型给核桃套上嘛，你吃过娃娃形状的人参果吗？一个原理。 It's not the same as the Dutch tulip foam of that year. It's also renewable, and it can be nurtured without scarcity. When the value of tulips rises one day, there must be a lot of them. Come on. What's your claim, even if you want tulips as tall as a mound of onion, you can grow a few truckloads of them, and there's also walnuts, and when you were crazy a few years ago, a lion's head and a hat could be sold to hundreds of thousands of dollars. What is it? 而比特币和这些还不太一样，毕竟不能挖个坑埋点土数个一二三四五就能收货一批出来，这玩意还是有数量限制的，如果非要说比特币是什么，那么我觉得可能限量版邮票这个提法比较贴合。 Bitcoin is not the same as all of this. After all, one, two, three, four and a half can't dig a pit to get a shipment. There's a limited amount of this stuff. If it's not about what bitcoin is, then I think it might be more appropriate to refer to a limited edition of stamps. 说有价值，那就有价值，只要有人认可，那么就有市场价格；说没价值，那也很快，大家都不认可的时候，那就一文不值。 If there is value, then there is value; if there is acceptance, there is market price; if there is no value, then quickly, when there is no acceptance, it is nothing. 二、比特币是骗局吗？ II. Bitcoin is a fraud? & nbsp; 刚才在第一个部分我说了，我是坚定的比特币智商税观点支持者。 As I said earlier in the first part, I am a staunch supporter of the Bitcoin IQ concept. 但是这并不影响我去投资，或者说投机。 But that doesn't affect my investment, or speculation. 比特币从2008年诞生之日起到现在，13年了，价值从0涨到了6万美金，而A股从1990年诞生到现在，31年了，从1000点涨到了3000多点，到底谁是骗局。 Bitcoin has risen from zero to $60,000 in 13 years since its birth in 2008, while shares A have grown from 1990 to 31 years, from 1,000 points to more than 3,000 points, and who is the fraud? 比特币从诞生之日起有涨有跌，但13年来至今没有价值归零；而A股里有大批量诸如乐视的股票，上市没几年就退市了，海量投资者血本无归，到底谁是骗局？ Bitcoin has been rising and falling since its birth, but it has not been worth zero for 13 years; and there is a large stock in A, which has been on the market for a few years, and who is the real fraud? 比特币投资完全公开公平，没有财务造假没有信息披露违规；而A股里财务造假、违规信息披露的公司是一家又一家，让投资者们敢怒无处言，到底谁是骗局？ Bitcoin investments are completely open and fair, and there is no financial counterfeiting and no disclosure of irregularities; and the financial counterfeiting and non-compliance disclosure companies in A share are one and another, leaving investors in a state of displeasure, and who is the fraud? 三、我甘愿被比特币骗 Three, I'd be deluded by bitcoin. 当我们认定某一件事情是否是骗局的时候，我们可以这样来做：假设给你个机会让你回到这件事发生之前，你是否会选择再做一次。 When we decide whether something is a scam, we can do it this way: assuming that you are given a chance to get back to it, will you choose to do it again? 如果你不愿意，那么这件事就是骗局，你是受害者，如果你选择继续做，那么这件事可能就不是骗局，至少对你来说不是骗局。 If you don't want to, then this is a scam, you're a victim, and if you choose to continue, then it may not be a scam, at least for you. 比如有人因为春节后梭哈白酒基金，现在给你个机会，让你回到春节后第一个交易日，你是否还会继续选择梭哈白酒基金？还是会选择10倍杠杆空股指？ For example, because someone is giving you a chance to go back to the first day of business after Spring Festival, will you continue to choose the Soyup Fund or will you choose the ten-fold leveraged stock finger? 再比如给你个机会让你回到2008年，你是否会选择卖房子、加杠杆梭哈比特币？傻子才不呢，让我投资阿里巴巴我都不敢，全仓梭哈比特币！ And, for example, give you a chance to go back to 2008, will you choose to sell the house and leverage the Hobitcoin? Not for fools, let me invest in . 所以，从投机的角度看，骗局不骗局的重要吗？ So, from a speculative point of view, isn't fraud important? 本身就是身处赌场，其中一张桌子上写着A股，你在这张桌子上屡屡输钱，你还屡败屡战，而且坚信这是价值投资；另一张桌子写着比特币，这张桌子上的人赚的盆满钵满，你还坚信这张桌子是骗局，这张桌子上的人都被骗了…… It's a casino in itself, with an A share on one table, where you've lost a lot of money, you've lost a lot of money, and you're convinced that it's a valuable investment, and another table that says Bitcoin, where people make a lot of money, and you're convinced that this table is a fraud, and that everyone on this table is being lied to... 想想。 Think about it. 这儿有两张赌桌摆在这，一张是A股，一张是比特币，你告诉我，哪张桌子是高尚的，哪张桌子是龌龊的？ There's two tables here, one for A, one for Bitcoin. Tell me, which table is noble and which table is dirty. 我的选择是甘愿被骗，具体做法是每个月拿出收入的10%，根据走势，按照定投的方式买成比特币，然后再按照基金定投每笔收益超过20%的时候就收割这一原则赎回卖出，不断形成定投资金池，就这么干。 My choice is to be defrauded by paying 10 per cent of the monthly income, buying bitcoin in the form of a given offer, and then selling back and forth in accordance with the Fund's principle of harvesting more than 20 per cent of the proceeds, in the form of a steady investment pool. 如果涨得很好，那么就赚了，如果真的归零了，无非就相当于在A股吃了一个跌停嘛，你在A股还少挨跌停的打了？ If it's good, then it's good. If it's zero, it's like eating a drop in the A-share, and you're less hit in the A-share. 肺腑之言，各自根据各自情况决定。 In their own words, each decides according to its own circumstances. 各位，晚安。 Good night, everyone. ------------------------------ 特别说明： In particular: 1. 本文所有观点均仅代表个人观点，绝不构成任何投资操作建议，仅供参考，切勿跟从！ 1. & nbsp; all views in this paper represent only personal views and do not in any way constitute any proposal for an investment operation, for information purposes only, and do not follow! 2. 本公众号不会进行代客理财、付费荐股等商业活动，如有人声称是我，并向你联系收费，切勿上当。 2. & nbsp; this public name does not engage in business activities such as acting for customers, paying for shares, etc., and if someone claims to be me, contact you to charge a fee, and do not do so. 3. 为了生活，本公众号可能会有广告，所有广告均会标注：特约发布。广告内容仅供参考，实效请读者自行验证，本公众号不承担任何担保责任。 & nbsp; For the sake of life, this public number may be advertised, and all advertisements will be marked: ads are published. 4. 文章有偿阅读，单篇1元，包年200元，可日付可年付，通过赞赏按钮即可。 4. & nbsp; articles are read on a fee-paying basis, with a single one-year package of $200, which can be paid on a daily basis and through a pay-as-you-go button. 5. 作者简介：1991年山东人，毕业于“中关村文理学院”，也被称为“圆明园职业技术学院”的金融大数据专业，热爱投资研究、热爱写作，曾获2008年村文联举办的“迎奥运”征文比赛第7名、2008年村投资联合会举办的“迎奥运”操盘比赛第7名，在村里拥有众多产业，投资顾问、软件开发、电商咨询等，2020年入选全村百名农村致富能手提名。 & nbsp; Author's profile: Shandongs, 1991 graduated from the “Mingang Village School of Arts and Science” and also known as the “Technology Institute of the Park” with a major financial data specialization in investment research and writing, was ranked 7th in the “Olympics” essay competition organized by the Federation of Villages in 2008, 7th in the “Olympics” competition organized by the Federation of Village Investment Federations in 2008, and numerous industries in the village, investment consultant, , electrical consulting, etc., and in 2020, 100 rural villagers from all villages were selected to be nominated by their powerful players. 6. 作者私人微信：97674798，私人沟通、商务合作请直接联系，我都在。 6. & nbsp; author's private e-mail: 97674798, private communication, business cooperation, direct contact, I am here.
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