一度被视为加密货币世界中坚力量的稳定币USDT，近期却展现出与其名称相悖的剧烈波动性。曾以1:1锚定美元的它，现竟较美元贬值近1.3%，令人愕然。火币场外交易中，USDT最低报价降至6.76，溢价率更是为负值(-1.94%)。与此同时，人民币兑美元中间价却强势上调至6.8954，创2019年8月1日以来新高，升幅为2019年6月21日以来最大。这一鲜明对比不禁引发深思：稳定币暴跌究竟意味着什么？其背后驱动因素又是什么？面对当前形势，投资者应如何抉择？
At a time when the stable currency, once regarded as a strong force in the encrypt currency world, had recently shown sharp fluctuations contrary to its name. It had been set at the dollar with an anchor of 1:1, and now depreciating by almost 1.3% against the dollar, it was surprising that the lowest offer fell to 6.76%, and the premium was negative (-1.94%). At the same time, the renminbi’s median value against the dollar had increased strongly to 6.8954, rising to the highest level since 1 August 2019. This contrast has triggered deep thinking: What does the sharp fall in the stable currency mean? What are its underlying drivers? How should investors choose in the face of the current situation?
1. USDT突遭滑铁卢
1. USDT stormed Waterloo
币圈赫赫有名的稳定币USDT，近日遭遇断崖式下跌，且无论投资者是否持仓，均难逃被“割”的命运。自去年11月起，USDT便踏上下跌通道，从高位7.11一路下挫至6.73，累计跌幅达5.34%。尽管对于习惯了币市大幅波动的投资者而言，5.34%的跌幅似乎微不足道，但须知，USDT本应扮演的是“避风港”角色，即使2%的跌幅亦足以引发恐慌。
Since November, the USDT has set its way down from 7.11 to 6.73, with a cumulative decline of 5.34%. Although a 5.34% drop may seem negligible for investors who have become accustomed to significant currency fluctuations, it should be known that the USDT should have played a “safe haven” role, even if the 2% fall was enough to cause panic.
2. 暴跌体验如临“价值地震”
“Value earthquake” in the context of a crash experience
试想，日常生活中人民币的面值恒定，若某日50元仅值40元，100元仅值90元，无疑将引发社会震动。同样，稳定币的暴跌就如同货币体系中的“价值地震”，打破了投资者对稳定币价值稳定的固有认知，带来心理冲击。
Imagine the constant face value of the renminbi in daily life, if 50 yuan a day were to be worth 40 yuan and 100 yuan a day was to be worth 90 dollars, which would undoubtedly trigger a social shock. Likewise, the collapse of the stable currency is like a “value earthquake” in the monetary system, which breaks investors’ inherent perception of the stability of the value of the currency and has a psychological impact.
USDT负溢价探因：内外因素交织1. 金融市场格局生变
1. Changing patterns of financial markets
当前，金融市场呈现USDT暴跌、美元走弱、人民币升值的复杂局面。回溯至去年8月，人民币罕见破7导致贬值，USDT持有者借此获利颇丰。如今，随着美元下跌、人民币升值，USDT亦同步下滑，昔日盈利恐已回吐。
Back in August last year, the renminbi fell by a rare seven, with its holders earning a lot. Now, with the dollar falling, the renminbi rising, and the USDT falling at a time when profits were expected to come back.
2. “资金出逃”现象凸显
The phenomenon of “financing flight” has been highlighted.
值得注意的是，USDT的负溢价现象尤为突出，即投资者可用低于1美元的汇率购入理论上与美元等值的USDT。究其原因，或与大量海外资金抄底BTC有关，导致USDT市场需求减弱，形成“资金出逃”态势。自去年12月以来，无论BTC行情如何，USDT始终呈下跌趋势，印证了这一推测。
It is worth noting that the USDT’s negative premium is particularly pronounced, i.e. that investors can purchase USDTs that are theoretically equivalent to the dollar at an exchange rate of less than US$ 1. The reason for this, or because it is associated with a large amount of offshore capital, is that the USDT market demand has weakened and a “money flight” has developed. Since last December, whatever the BTC’s behaviour, the USDT has been on a downward trend, confirming this assumption.
3. Tether常规操作失效
3. Tether's general operation failed
面对USDT颓势，发行方Tether祭出了惯用的调节手段——增发。然而，此次增发并未如往常般提振市场信心，反而显得力不从心。原因在于：一方面，USDT市场流通量已趋饱和，新币供应难以消化；另一方面，适逢中国春节假期，市场活跃度下降，增发效应大打折扣。
Faced with the decline of the USDT, the issuer, Tether, has sacrificed the usual mode of regulation – increasing the flow. However, the increase has not boosted market confidence as usual, but has not been forthcoming. On the one hand, the USDT market has saturated, making the supply of the new currency difficult to digest; and, on the other hand, during the spring holiday in China, market activity has declined and the effects of the increase have been reduced.
投资者抉择：USDT抄底与否？1. 抄底与否，各有利弊
1. Advantages and disadvantages of copying or not
面对当前低价USDT，投资者是否应趁机囤积，实则关乎对美元与人民币走势的判断。即使USDT未来修正负溢价，可能仍难以抵御美元的下行周期。反之，人民币升值预期强烈，长期看涨。
In the face of the current low-price USDT, whether investors should take advantage of the current build-up is a matter of judgement on the dollar’s and the renminbi’s movement. Even a future USDT revision of negative premiums may still be difficult to resist the US dollar’s downward cycle.
2. 投资决策需审时度势
2. Timing of investment decisions
总而言之，是否买入USDT，实乃选择站队美元抑或人民币的问题。在瞬息万变的币圈，投资者心中应有一杆秤，权衡风险与收益，依据自身风险承受能力及市场洞察，做出明智的投资决策。
In short, buying USDT is a question of choosing the dollar or the renminbi. In a fast-changing currency circle, investors should weigh risks and gains and make informed investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance and market insight.
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