Facebook 推出加密貨幣 Libra,如何影響未來三十年金融體系?

资讯 2024-07-09 阅读:41 评论:0
Liying Wang, Legal Master (王琍瑩 / 法務輔導長 & 明日科技法律事務所主持律師)Lying Wang, Legal Master (lawyer for tomorrow's science and t...
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Liying Wang, Legal Master (王琍瑩 / 法務輔導長 & 明日科技法律事務所主持律師)

Lying Wang, Legal Master (lawyer for tomorrow's science and technology law firm >

帶領內建法務團隊,提供企業經營、合約協商、紛爭處理等各方面法律諮詢,輔導建立營運管理機制,必要時也協助團隊尋求「突破框架」的解方。曾任 HTC 全球營運資深法務經理、萬國法律事務所科技法律部律師,也曾服務於士林地方法院、台北高等行政法院。美國西北大學法學碩士、政大法學士、政大 EMBA,具備美國紐約州與台灣律師執照。

To lead the domestic legal team, to provide legal advice on business management, contractual agreements, disputes, etc., to set up a business management mechanism and, if necessary, to assist the team in finding a solution to the Breakthrough Framework. He was a senior law manager for HTC global operations, a lawyer for science and law at the law firm of the country’s law firm, and served in the local court of Slim, the High Administrative Court of Taipei.

加密貨幣 (Cryptocurrency) 的定性和應用變化十分多元,可能是商品 (Commodity)、數位資產 ( Digital Asset)、證券 (Security),也可能是貨幣 (Currency; Money),對全球金融體系的影響力,仍在不斷地快速演化。自從 6 月 18 日,擁有 24 億用戶的 Facebook,宣佈推出加密貨幣 Libra 以來,受到全球熱烈關注,也相對引發各國央行疑慮。對此,中央銀行總裁楊金龍表示:「臉書幣畢竟不是貨幣」,初步仍將 Libra 定位為代幣;不到幾天,副總裁陳南光接受媒體專訪時則認為:「Libra屬私人貨幣 (private money) 的一種,當然就是要挑戰主權貨幣」。

The characterization and adaptation of encrypted currency (Cryptocurrence) is diverse and may be a commodity (Commodity), digital asset (Digital Asset), or a voucher (Currecy; Money), whose influence on the global financial system continues to evolve rapidly. Since June 18, 24 billion users have had Facebook (@ahref=https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/1079339771"tarnet="blank"rel=nopener" to launch the encoded currency Libra to receive global attention, and the #rebrebrebrebrebret /rebrebrebrebrebreb_reb_rebreb_rebrebreb_rebrebrebrebs/rebrebrebrebst_http://www.hrebrebrebrek= "brebrebrebrebreb/rebrebrebrebrebs/rebrets. http://www.hutrebreb=www.r.r.hut.r.r.r.

一個央行、兩種觀點,代表著完全不同的監管立場。如果將 Libra 定位為代幣,監管重點可能放在查緝黑市匯兌、防洗錢、反資恐;而如果看清 Libra 以私人貨幣取代法幣的願景,各國央行似乎必須停下腳步,反思數百年來人類社會對於法幣的認知:試圖以單一政府法規,抵制或對抗未來可能無所不在的 Libra,會不會反而只是邊緣化自己?

A central bank, with two points of view, represents a completely different place for supervision. If Libra is positioned as a proxy, the focus of supervision may be on black market transfers, money laundering, anti-money fear, and if Libra’s vision of replacing French with private currency seems to be clear, central banks will have to stop and reflect on centuries of human society’s recognition of French: trying to resist or resist, with a single government law, what is likely to be everywhere in the future, Libra will not simply be sidelined.

書上說,加密貨幣很難成為真正的貨幣

貨幣,就是錢。一般日常生活使用的新台幣、美元或日圓,稱作法定貨幣 (Legal Tender; Fiat),是官方發行用以作為交易媒介 (A Medium of Exchange)、計價 (A Unit of Account),並儲存價值 (A Store of Value) 的一種支付工具。但事實上,貨幣的購買力,取決於市場流通性,而市場流通性取決於對貨幣的信任。單一政府發行的法幣容易獲得信任,卻也不全然如此,例如,歐盟各國為促成統一市場,共同採行歐元;又如,委內瑞拉惡性通膨嚴重,法幣也變廢紙。因此,只要有足夠的使用者信任並據以交易、計價、儲存價值,即便由民間發行,也可能具備貨幣的效用。

. The new currency, dollar or yen, generally used in everyday life, is called the legal currency (Legal Tender; Fiat). The French coins issued by a single government are easy to trust, but not always so. For example, the European Union co-operates Euros to promote a dominant market; and, as in the case of Venezuela, the buying power of the currency depends on market circulation, which determines trust in the currency.

至於加密貨幣會不會成為真正的貨幣,早在 2018 年中,歐洲議會 (European Parliament) 的經濟與貨幣事務委員會 (Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee) 即委外進行「加密貨幣與貨幣政策」(Cryptocurrencies and Monetary Policy) 的研究。研究報告指出,只要克服交易速度的問題,區塊鏈 (Blockchain) 在技術上,能夠促成私人發行 (Privately-Issued)、數位原生 (Digital)、有助於點對點交易 (Peer-to-Peer Transactions) 的新型態貨幣 (A New Form of Money) 誕生,然而,基於以下四大理由,該報告認為加密貨幣 在應用面,仍難成為真正的貨幣:

As far back as 2018, the Economic and Monetary Council of the European Parliament (EUROPEAN Parliament) conducted a study on "encrypted currency and currency policy" (Crypturrences andMonetary Policy).

1. 價格波動劇烈 (Volatility):現階段加密貨幣多設有發行量限制,發行機構無法透過調節供給來控制漲跌幅。而價格波動過大,可能導致一杯標價 3 Tokens 的咖啡,今天相當於新台幣 50 元,明天卻飆漲為 500 元,當然難以作為具備穩定價值的交易媒介。

1. Volatility: In the current phase of encryption, where there are lot limits on circulation, the issuer is unable to control the drop through the modems. The price is too high to allow a cup of coffee with a price of 3 Tokens, which today amounts to 50 Taiwan Dollars, but rises to $500 tomorrow, making it difficult to act as a stable trading medium.

2. 欠缺完整、規模化 (Scalability) 的應用場景:現階段加密貨幣落地應用場景侷限,僅少數早期商戶參與,對不諳區塊鏈技術的普羅大眾而言,進入門檻仍高,尚未形成正向網路效應 (Network Effect),實用性短期內難與法幣比擬。

2. The lack of a complete and modular (Scalability) application scene: the current phase of encryption is limited to local applications, with the participation of only a small number of early traders, and access to the gates is still high for the unconnected public, and has yet to form a positive online response (Network Effect), which is a short-term challenge compared to the French currency.

3. 無法確保金融穩定性 (Financial Stability):在法幣的世界裡,一旦發生流動性危機,通常由央行扮演紓困角色 (Lender of Last Resort),向金融市場挹注巨額資金,緩解流動緊縮的壓力,以阻止系統性的信心崩解。然而,加密貨幣的民間發行方,難以擔負此種穩定金融的任務。

3. Financial stability cannot be assured: in a world of French currency, once there is a liquidity crisis, it is usually central banks that play the role of “Lender of Last Resort” by putting huge sums of money into the financial market to ease the pressure on the tightness of the flow in order to prevent systemic confidence breakdowns. However, it is difficult for the civil distributors of the encrypted currency to undertake such a financial stabilization mission.

4. 欠缺監督與制衡 (Checks and Balances) 機制:民主政府運作當中的「代理人理論」(Principal-Agent Theory) ,強調透過形式化制度設計,以確保監督與制衡,減輕官僚體系的代理成本。研究報告最終認為,民間發行加密貨幣,不可能建立適當的監督制衡機制以獲得使用者信任,而這將是挑戰法幣的最大障礙。

4. Lack of oversight and checks and balances (Checks and Balances): The “agent theory” (Principal-Agent Theory) in the functioning of democratic governments, which is strongly emphasized through formalization systems designed to ensure oversight and checks and balances and to reduce the surrogate costs of the bureaucracy. The study concludes that it is not possible to create proper oversight checks and balances in order to gain user trust.

現實是,加密貨幣可以成為貨幣,影子央行可能成為超級央行

Libra 釋出之後,各國央行沈不住氣、強烈圍剿,或許是「正中下懷」。儘管所有 FinTech 應用,都同樣高舉「普惠金融」(Inclusive Financing) 的旗幟,同樣號稱鎖定沒有銀行帳戶 (Unbanked) 或未能受到完整銀行服務 (Underbanked) 的人口,但是相較於印尼的 GO-JEK (儲值與支付)、印度的 PaisaDukan (借貸)、美國的 Mint.com (帳戶管理) 這些「在框框裡」單挑銀行既有業務的應用, Libra 則選擇越級打怪,在法幣進入銀行大門之前,直接創造「A New Global Currency」,一種全新的、超越各國央行的貨幣供給,先用空軍的方式跟各國法幣拼搏,然後才回過頭來與傳統銀行體系的地面部隊一較高下。

Following the release of Libra, or may be `just-in-the-low'. All FinTech should be used under the same banner as InfoTech-Libra-Cryptocurrecy-faced-wit-central-bank-warnings.html "target=" (Unbanked) rel=noopener' >.

這個決定看似聰明,但是穩定幣 (Stablecoin) 挑戰法幣並不是新的概念,也尚未出現成功取代法幣的案例,到底 Libra 哪來的自信?我們就從 Libra 白皮書的說明,逐一檢視前面提到的四大挑戰:

The decision seems smart, but the Stablecoin challenge is not a new concept, nor has there been a case of a successful replacement of the French currency. Where does Libra come from confidence? We look at the four challenges from :

1. 價格波動的問題:Libra 以貨幣發行作為普惠金融理想世界的起手式,當然要確保價格穩定。除了捨棄加密貨幣常見的發行量限制,防止人為炒作之外,也採取類似穩定幣的方式與法幣掛勾,賦予 Libra 內在價值 (Intrinsic Value)。

1. Price dynamics: Libra’s hand style of issuing currency as an ideal world for inclusive finance certainly ensures price stability. In addition to discarding the usual circulation restrictions on encoded currency, preventing people from making fun of it, Libra’s intrinsic value is also attached to French currency in a manner similar to that of stable currency.

只是 Libra 更為高明,不只錨定單一法幣,而是藉由 Libra Association 每位成員各 1,000 萬美元的注資,以及使用者購入 Libra 時 1:1 的發行儲備,投入一系列低波動性資產,包括主流法幣 (美元、歐元、日圓等) 與短期國債,並適時調節配置,以分散風險、強化保值,排除對單一法幣的依賴。白話一點說,一單位 Libra 不等於一美元、也不等於一歐元,它會有自己的匯率,並且比任何主流法幣都更穩定,如果有一天再度爆發全球系統性的金融危機,或許只剩 Libra 的持有者還能淡定。

It is just that Libra is more intelligent, not just a single coin, but rather an investment of US$ 10 million per member of Libra Association, as well as a system of 1:1 when users buy into Libra, and invests in a range of low-volatile assets, including mainstream French coins (US$, Euro, yen, etc.) and short-term national debt, and is appropriately configured to spread risk, enforce value, and exclude dependence on a single dollar. To put it in white, a unit of Libra is different from US$ 1 or less than a euro, it will have its own rate of transfer and be more stable than any mainstream French coin, and if one day a global systemic financial crisis is re-emerged, perhaps only Libra’s holders will be able to relax.

2. 規模化的問題:Facebook 月活躍用戶 (Monthly Active User; MAU) 高達 24億,遠大於全球任何一個主權國家人口,甚至已經涵蓋全球 77 億總人口的三分之一,而這個數字還沒計入 WhatsApp、Messenger、Instagram 這些 Facebook 旗下同樣受歡迎的兄弟姊妹。

2. Stereotyping: Facebook Active User (MAU) has a population of 2.4 billion people, far more than any of the world’s dominant countries, and even one third of the global total of 77 billion people, a number that is not included in whatsApp, Messenge, Instagram, the same popular brothers and sisters under the same Facebook flag.

此外,由於廣告是 Facebook 一路以來主要獲利來源,「設法提高流量」早已內化為 Facebook 的生存本能。新物種 Libra 有著同樣的基因優勢,再加上 Libra Association 的多元組成促進線上線下交易場景融合,使用者甚至對區塊鏈與加密貨幣毫無認知,也能更容易使用 Libra ,從而使整個生態系所建構的金流與資訊流相輔相成,進一步加速網路效應的擴散。有朝一日,Libra 成為主流貨幣,使用者高喊「In Libra We Trust」,恐怕也不是癡人說夢。

In addition, since the ad is the main profit source for Facebook, "rel=noopener" has been internalized into Facebook's survival instincts. New species, Libra, have the same genetic advantages, , and users are more likely to use Libra than they are to know about the chain and the encoded currency, to bring together the gold and information built by the whole system and to speed up the spread of the network.

3. 金融穩定性的問題:前面提到,Libra 將儲備金透過主流法幣與短期國債進行資產配置,還能隨著各國經濟情勢重大變化而調整因應,我們可以將這樣的儲備金,理解為類似主權國家的外匯存底 (Foreign Exchange Reserves),不但可以用來穩定匯率,同時也表彰清償能力,要說它無法擔負穩定金融的任務,恐怕是小看了 Libra 的能耐。

3. Financial stability: As mentioned earlier, Libra's allocation of reserves through mainstream French currency and short-term national debt can also be adapted to major changes in the economic situation in various countries, and we can interpret such reserves as

4. 監督機制的問題:首先,在組織架構層面,Libra 自始即由獨立於 Facebook 的第三方非營利組織 Libra Association 來運作,並強調隨著開發進程,將持續與各國政府共同形塑適當的監理環境,以確保消費者權益獲得保護。

4. Monitoring mechanisms: First, at the organizational level, Libra was operated from the outset by a third-party, non-profit organization, independent of Facebook, Libra Association, and stressed that the development process will continue to shape the proper oversight environment with the governments to ensure that the rights of consumers are protected.

其次,在技術標準層面,Libra Core 公鏈是開放源碼 (Open Source),採用 Apache 2.0 授權條款,由開源社群共同開發、使用與維護,這樣的作法,除了加速擴張生態系的商業目的之外,也可以確保技術文件的公正性與透明性。

Second, at the technical standard level, is an open source (Open Source) using the Apache 2.0 grant, developed, used and maintained by the open-source community, which, in addition to accelerating the expansion of the business sector, also ensures the integrity and transparency of technical documents.

此外,針對前述儲備金機制,Libra 也強調將分散委託給具有投資級信用評等的各地託管機構,以落實稽核,並避免集中管理的系統性風險。換言之,類似 2018 年穩定幣 USDT 儲備不足、非法挪用這種典型的代理成本爭議,在 Libra 規劃的機制下,將可以大幅降低。

In addition, Libra, in relation to the above-mentioned reserve scheme, has also stressed the need to decentralize to investment-grade credit rating agencies in order to establish a solid audit and avoid systemic risks of centralized management. In other words, the USDT — could be significantly reduced under the Libra scheme.

無論你喜不喜歡,Libra 生態系都會在這裡 Libra 一出場擺出這種陣仗,絕對是票房保證。什麼陣仗呢?第三方非營利組織、媒介 (安裝基礎)、開源平台 (產業標準)、開發者社群、以及一群廣大而多樣化並且具有共同策略目標的盟友。咦!好像在哪裡見過?這與當年Google 推動 Android 生態系,加速全球 Mobile Internet 普及的劇本十分類似。

Whether you like it or not, Libra has this kind of battle here, Libra. What battles? Third-party non-profit organizations, media (installation of foundations), open-source platforms (product standards), the developer community, and a broad and diverse group of allies with common strategic goals.

自然生態環境中,食物鏈的運作雖然看似弱肉強食,實際上卻是互惠共生。早在十多年前,Google 選擇採取開放式平台策略,逐步建立 Android 生態系,即已驗證在數位經濟的時代,以合作共生取代零和賽局,是確實可行、甚至更為成功的道路。Libra 揭示的願景,幾乎是當年 Android 生態系的復刻,因此我們觀察 Android 生態系一路走來的縮時攝影,可以預測 Libra 生態系作為區塊鏈新一波典範轉移 (Paradigm Shift) 的路線與方向。

In a natural environment, the food chain operates as if it were weak, but in fact as a mutually beneficial symbiosis. Ten years ago, Google chose to adopt an open platform strategy to build Android’s system, which proved to be a viable, if not a success, alternative to a zero-sum game in the digital economy at a time when cooperation symbiotics had been proven. Libra’s vision was almost a rebirth of the Android system in the year, so we observed that Android’s life was taken as a drop-off, and it was possible to predict the course and direction of the Libra system as a new wave of the Paradigm Shift.

整個 Android 生態系誕生初期,透過開放手機聯盟 (Open Handset Alliance; OHA) 的建立,與主要手機供應商、經銷商及使用者建立關係,儘管有時必須排除競爭者 (例如 Windows Operating System) 在同一生態系從事競爭行為,Android 付出最多的心血,仍在於維持生態系成員的多樣性,藉由作業系統標準化與效能最佳化,協助硬體廠商減少成本並加速創新,鼓勵軟體或內容開發者投入加值應用,也因而獲得運營商普遍支持,形成交互網路效應,使 Android 在行動裝置市場的擴張勢如破竹。

In the early years of the life of the whole Android, through the creation of Open Phone Alliance (Open Handset Alliance; OHA), relationships with major mobile service providers, distributors and users, although sometimes it is necessary to exclude competitors (e.g. Windows Superating System) from the same life cycle, Android still devotes most of his efforts to maintaining the diversity of its members by standardizing and optimizing the performance of his work systems, helping hardworking firms to reduce costs and accelerate innovation, encouraging software or content developers to invest in value addition, and thus gaining the general support of the business, creating an interactive web response that would lead to the expansion of Android's presence in the action device market.

基於類似的運作模式,Facebook 建構 Libra 生態系,也是為了驅動網路效應,從而擴大使用者基礎,同時透過全新的 Move 程式語言,建立有別於現行主流 Ethereum 的 Libra Core 公鏈基礎設施,進一步推動 Libra 生態系專屬的加密貨幣支付協定與各項智慧合約應用,形成相容性的壁壘,增加使用者的轉換成本,達到鎖定效應 (Lock-In Effect),也提高競爭行為的難度,最終追求「資訊流帶動金流、金流衍生資訊流」相輔相成的運作模式,並與生態系成員價值共享。 Libra Association 公布目前已知的 29 名創始成員,相當於為我們勾勒出 Libra 心中所想像生態系發展的藍圖,除了 Facebook 和 Calibra 自己 (也別忘了兄弟姊妹 WhatsApp、Messenger、Instagram),洋洋灑灑包括:國際發卡組織 Visa、Mastercard,第三方支付業者 PayPal、Stripe,行動通訊運營商 Vodafone、Iliad,服務及內容供應商 Uber、Lyft、Spotify、eBay、Booking Holdings (旗下包括 Booking.com、Priceline.com、Agoda.com、Kayak、Rentalcars.com、OpenTable),非營利組織 Women’s World Banking,創投 Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)、Union Square Ventures,加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 等等,來自四面八方擁有共同願景的成員,結合成一個休戚與共的生態系。這只是第一代的創始成員,而我們已經可以看到當中蘊藏的商業機會。

It is based on similar modes, Facebook, the Libra System, which is also designed to drive the Internet, expand the user base from the same time through a brand-new Move program language, build the Libra Core infrastructure, which is different from the current Etheeum, and move forward with the Libra Life, which is dedicated to encrypting currency payments, creating compatible walls, increasing user conversion costs, reaching the lockup (Lock-In Effect), building the searchable model that is different from the current Etherium, building the Libra Core, which is dedicated to symmetrical currency payments, creating compatible intellectual barriers, creating compatible walls, increasing user switching costs, reaching the lockdown (Lock-Inft-Baffet), and ultimately pursuing the model of "Invest-Balt-Balbanet" and "Invern-Bret-Bret-Bret-Bret-Bret-E", and sharing the value of the Internet/Intra-Brebretwets, which are now known as ,

Libra Association 共獲得 29 家企業巨頭響應加入。(Source: libra.org)

Libra Association was joined by 29 corporate giants. (Source: Libra 根本不算去中心化」的質疑聲浪不曾稍歇。但是,在「絕對去中心化」的完美境界實現之前,Libra 挑戰的其實不是「中心化 VS. 去中心化」的意識形態之爭,而是如同 iOS 與 Android 當年典型「封閉式生態系 VS. 開放式生態系」的路徑選擇,區塊鏈技術只是其中工具的一種。Mobile Internet 這一段寶貴的歷史經驗,可以幫助我們反覆回顧思考,如何在新的生態系中順勢建立自身價值,避免重複台灣過去硬體代工思維,在整個網路產業價值鏈面臨「毛三到四」(毛利率 3% 到 4%) 的困境。

Of course, regardless of the initial VIP club, or Libra's declaration of 100 member nodes to be deployed before the official go-live, or the final plan to move to the "Permissions" (Permissions), the "A href =" https://twetter.com/status/114023735614?ref_src=https://appworks.tw/facebook-libra/twrc%5Etfwc_7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed =7Ctwtwtem =5E114018538514ref =url= 3A%2F2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2m2 m2 m2 m2m2 m2 m2 m2m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2 m2

打不過它,就認真加入它

回頭看看 Android 生態系興起,至今不過十多年,已經為整個商業生態系、乃至於全體人類社會運作帶來莫大改變,而這樣的生態演化,在未來數十年的物聯網時代,仍將持續,直到下一次成功的物種突變,帶來新的方向。

Looking back at the rise of Android’s ethos, which has brought about significant changes in the whole business ethos, and indeed in human society as a whole, for more than a decade now, will continue for decades to come, until the next successful transformation of the species has taken a new direction.

同樣的,對於開發者或任何人來說,眼前橫空出世、野蠻生長的 Libra 生態系,無論你喜不喜歡,它都會稱霸好一陣子;而無論你的開發項目是社群、數位內容、金融科技,或是代幣經濟,都不可能不受到影響。以台灣最受歡迎的 LINE 平台為例,長期經營本地社群與 LINE TV 數位內容、正在申請純網銀執照、同時也建立 LINK 區塊鏈,期許帶動整個代幣經濟的蓬勃發展,卻也不得不面對 Facebook 這個擁有全台灣 1900 萬用戶數的巨人,以及站在巨人肩膀上的 Libra。

In the same way, for developers or anyone, the libra system, which is born out of thin air, wildly growing, will claim dominance for a while, whether you like it or not, and your development project is a community, digital content, financial technology, or a currency economy, is unlikely to be unaffected. In the case of Taiwan’s most popular LINE platform, long-term local communities and Line TV digital content, and in the process of applying for a pure Internet license, as well as setting up a link in the LinK sector at the same time, to allow for the prosperity of the entire currency economy, have to face Facebook, a giant with 19 million users in Taiwan, and Libra on the shoulders of giants.

歷史經驗告訴我們:打不過就加入它。開發者轉念想想自己在未來的三年、五年、三十年,將如何扮演好 Libra 生態系一份子的角色、能夠為這個生態系帶來何種價值,或許更為實際。

History has told us that if we can’t join it, the developers will think about how they will play the role of Libra in the next three, five, and 30 years, and what value they can bring to it, perhaps more effectively.

然而,開發者也不要輕易陷入生態系迷思。生態系的運作既然強調價值共創、利潤共享,成員容易傾向在與領導者的關係當中交出話語權。Android 生態系中,硬體廠商彼此陷入規格戰,甚至補貼與削價競爭,無論頂級或廉價,只要能夠擴大 Android 安裝基礎,都是 Google 所樂見,也因此硬體廠商合作夥伴,隨時可能被另一個銷量更好的硬體廠商所取代。

However, developers do not easily fall into the illusion of living conditions. Since they stress co-creation and profit sharing, members tend to give up their words in their relations with their leaders. Android systems, where hard manufacturers are caught in a fight with each other, or even in competition for subsidies and price cuts, can expand the Android installation base, which Google would like to see, so that a partner in hard-worker may be replaced at any time by another, better-selling, hard-worker.

有鑑於此,開發者參與 Libra 生態系,應思考如何強化戰力佈署、與其他成員產生差異化。除了成為 Libra 的最佳戰友,也可同時建立自己的小生態系,與既有的大生態系形成相互依賴的關係,一旦終止關係,既有的大生態系必須付出高昂的代價。如此一來,才能避免淪為可有可無的成員,確保長期與生態系合作共生。

In addition to being Libra’s best comrades, it is possible to build up its own symbiosis at the same time, in a mutually reinforcing relationship with the existing symbiosis, which, once it has ended, has to come at a high cost. In this way, it is possible to avoid becoming a non-existent member and to ensure long-term symbiosis with the symbiosis of the symbiosis of the symbiosis.

當然,生態系的長治久安,除了安內,還必須攘外。Libra 只是開了第一槍,這個盟主的位置可以坐多久,還取決於市場上有沒有同樣量級的競爭者出現。許多人觀察到,Libra 現有成員當中沒有銀行,因此合理判斷銀行會是 Libra 主要競爭者。事實上,銀行體系雖然是 Libra 平台結合 Calibra 虛擬錢包打算聯手顛覆的對象,卻恐怕不是 Libra 心中真正的對手。

Of course, there is a lasting peace in the ecosystem, except for Anne. Libra just fired the first shot, and the seating of this alliance would be long, depending on whether the same level of competitors appeared in the market. Many people observed that Libra now has no bank, so it would be reasonable to judge that the bank is Libra’s main competitor. In fact, the bank is not the true opponent in Libra’s mind, though it is the Libra platform that unites Calibra’s virtual wallet.

Calibra 團隊負責人 (同時也是 PayPal 前總裁) David Marcus 在接受專訪時便雲淡風輕地表示,接下來必定會展開與銀行的合作 (白話文:收服銀行,納入 Libra 體系)。至於誰才是真正可能跟 Libra 平起平坐的對手呢?想必是同樣具有「生態系」眼界的領導者。例如,同樣懷著穩定幣一統天下的初衷,從金流切入資訊流仍待一番苦戰的 USDT 和 JPM Coin;或是同樣擁有高忠誠度的使用者基礎,從資訊流跨足金流等於打通任督二脈的 Google;又或者是掌握雲端運算基礎設施與大數據,什麼都賣、什麼都不奇怪的電商龍頭 Amazon;也別忘了在中國市場自給自足,卻不時讓外界感到威脅與警戒的阿里巴巴與騰訊。以上潛在競爭對手,雖然初期驚慌失措的成分可能較高,但長期走向多個生態系並存,部分成員佔據核心、部分成員跨界遊走,就像 Android 與 iOS 生態系彼此維持動態競合一樣,或許也是符合生態系運作的現實,值得開發者持續密切關注。

> > > < > > > > > > < > > > > < > < < > > > > > < > > > < > > > > > > < > > > > > > > < http > > < > > > > > > > < > > > < http > > > > > > > > > > < > > > > >.

前述生態系的觀念,對於監管層面的討論,同樣重要。加密貨幣每一次重量級的變革,都像自然生態環境一次成功的物種突變,啟動未來數十年、數百年的全新演化。Bitcoin 和 Ether 挑戰我們既有認知,最終美國 SEC 傾向認為它們是商品,不是證券 (因為不具投資性),是貨幣的替代品,不是貨幣 (因為價格波動與去中心化)。

Bitcoin and Ether challenged what we already know, and ultimately the US SEC prefers to think that they are commodities, not certificates (because they are non-inputable), substitutes for currencies, not currency (because they are priced and decentralized).

然而,比起 Bitcoin 和 Ether 給證券監管機構出的考卷,Libra 這一題對各國央行的啟發,顯然已不只是在商品、證券、貨幣的傳統分類之間對號入座而已。各國央行面對這位量體更大的對手,也應該重新思考本身的定位,包括將發行官方數位法幣 (Central Bank Issued Digital Currency; CBDC) 作為自我疊代的一種可能的選項。

However, Libra’s introduction to central banks is clearly more than just a cross-reference between commodities, securities, and currency traditions. In the face of this larger opponent, central banks should also rethink their own positioning, including by issuing as a possible self-introduction option.

至於傳統銀行體系或監理機關把 Libra 當作假想敵,執著於防洗錢、反資恐的議題,則可能無濟於事。的確,在點對點轉帳、跨國資金移動的運作上, Libra 仍然堅持「數位現金交易」(Digital Cash Transactions) 的本質,認為它的日常流動與現金沒有不同,在實體世界運用現金交易並沒有事前監管,現金交易確實也有販毒、賭博、洗錢的發生,而由於 Libra 是採用具名帳戶 (Pseudonymous Account) 而非匿名帳戶 (Anonymous Account),在司法必須介入的時候,數位貨幣的流動其實是比現金更容易查緝。

Libra still insists on

因此,人們對 Libra 被利用於洗錢或資恐的疑慮不應該大於對現金的疑慮,對政府可能侵犯隱私或濫用個資的監督,不應該亞於對 Libra 或 Facebook 的監督。也因此,針對數位現金在平台上的流動,不應該輕易接受政府的行政監管措施提早在司法措施之前介入,甚至對毫無犯罪嫌疑的日常交易增加不必要的障礙。

As a result, the suspicion that Libra is being used for money laundering or fear of money should not be greater than the suspicion of cash, and that the government may violate privacy or abuse supervision, and not as much as the monitoring of Libra or Facebook. As a result, the movement of digital cash on platforms should not easily accept government administrative oversight measures to intervene before justice measures take place, or even add unnecessary obstacles to routine transactions without criminal suspicion.

畢竟 Libra 心中想望的,是超級央行的貨幣大夢,而國際政經秩序是當中最重要的環節,理論上 Libra 要比各國政府更關心金融犯罪與恐怖主義的動向。至於既有規制中,在線上與線下交會的這個末端環節,必要踐行的 KYC (Know Your Customer)、防洗錢、反資恐等法遵程序,要求合作夥伴的交易所、虛擬錢包或銀行遵循當地法令並配合執法,絕對是 Libra 給得起的承諾。Mark Zuckerberg 被要求出席國會聽證不是第一次,並沒有因此打擊他繼續前進的信心。Libra 從最小可行性產品 (Minimum Viable Product; MVP) 開始,雖然已經是個相當霸氣的 MVP,但我們相信更多的對話,會促成更好的產品。這次即將跟 David Marcus 連袂出席國會聽證,我們可以更清楚看到 Facebook、Libra 和國會議員,各自懷著什麼心思。

結論:Libra 全新物種,將啟動生態系未來三十年全面演化

一直以來,我們缺乏對區塊鏈應用大規模落地的具體想像。Facebook 身為網路巨擘,無懼於各國央行與銀行體系的龐大勢力,堅持開一條新路,相信在可預見的未來,Libra 會證明自己,不僅僅是一個新的支付工具選項,而是如同白皮書所說,將要創建一個實踐價值傳遞的「貨幣互聯網」(Internet of Money),啟動整個金融與商業生態系未來至少三十年的全面演化。

As an Internet giant, without fear of the power of central banks and the banking system, Facebook has maintained a new path, believing that, in the foreseeable future, Libra will prove itself to be more than just a new payment tool option, but rather, as the White Book says, an Internet of Money, which transmits real value, will be created to kick-start the full evolution of the entire financial and business life system for at least three decades.

事實上,當「絕對中心化」的傳統運作逐漸受到質疑,而「絕對去中心化」的完美境界又難以排除交易無效率的先天缺陷,此時此刻,Libra 的出現,試圖建構一個介於兩者之間的生態系,一方面強調「相對去中心化」的開放路線與成員多樣性,另一方面仍維持「相對中心化」以確保運作效率與歸責主體,或許更為符合現階段使用者的期待。

In fact, when the tradition of "absolute centralization" is being questioned, and the perfect context of "absolute decentralization" is difficult to remove the inefficiency inherent in the transaction, Libra’s appearance is trying to construct an ethos between the two, emphasizing on the one hand the openness of decentralization and the diversity of its members and, on the other hand, maintaining "centralization" to ensure efficiency and accountability, perhaps more in line with the expectations of current users.

當年科學家們發現鴨嘴獸,這個嘴巴像鴨子、身體是獸毛的奇怪動物,也經歷過各種調查研究與爭辯,甚至連假新聞陰謀論都出來了。但鴨嘴獸就是鴨嘴獸,就算因為找到哺乳證據而歸為哺乳類,也改變不了牠會下蛋的事實 (絕大多數的哺乳類為胎生)。面對一個全新的物種,一個我們根本不知道那是什麼的東西,只能先試著認識,才能決定要敵視它、還是加好友。

Scientists discovered that a duck-beast, a strange animal whose mouth is like a duck, whose body is a hairy animal, had to go through all kinds of research and argument, and even fake news plots. But a duckbite is a duckbite, and even if it is a breast-feeding type, it does not change the fact that it will lay its eggs (most of whom are breast-fed). In the face of a brand-new species, a thing that we don’t even know can only be identified by trying to determine whether it is an enemy or a good friend.

尤其,自然生態演化理論教給我們的道理:「生態系中的生物多樣性愈豐富,面對挑戰時的存活機會愈大。」當我們進行這些討論,始終應該站在一個較為長遠而宏觀的位置,對內望向生態系各個靜態與動態的面向,對外設想數個競爭生態系並存的可能樣貌。最重要的,無論開發者、各國央行或監理機關,都無法自外於這一個或數個無所不在、不受國界拘束的生態系,必須在當中找到自己的最佳定位、以及短、中、長期貢獻價值的方法,否則終將趨向邊緣化。

In particular, natural evolutionary theory has taught us: "The diversity of life in the living system is more abundant, and the chances of survival are greater in the face of challenges." When we engage in these discussions, we should always be in a far-reaching and ambitious position, looking at the spirits of hope, looking at the spirits of silence and motivation, and thinking about the possible coexistence of competing identities. Most importantly, neither the developers, nor the central banks, nor the supervisory authorities, can afford to look outside for one or more of these ubiquitous and unbridled systems, where they must find their best position and ways to make short, medium and long-term contributions, or where they will eventually rise to the edge.

【歡迎所有 AI / IoT、Blockchain / Crypto 的創業者,加入專為你們服務的 AppWorks Accelerator

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